1. An Evaluation of the Potential for Commercial Navigation to Further Facilitate Freight Transportation in the Tennessee River Valley Larry G. Bray, Ph.D. Center for Transportation Research University of Tennessee

2. Study funded by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers-Nashville District and the Tennessee Department of Transportation

3. Study Scope What commodities have potential for diversion to barge transportation? Truck Rail What policy alternatives might encourage or facilitate the diversions? What environmental and economic externalities might be associated with the diversions?

4. Data and Information Sources 2007 Global Insight TranSearch for truck freight – All Tennessee counties – Entrance-exit counties ringing Tennessee – Larger groupings for less proximate areas 2007 Freight Waybill Sample data for rail freightage 2008 USACE Waterborne Statistical Center for waterborne traffic Field interviews

5. Analytical Methods Employed We examined databases to identify large quantities of goods moving within Tennessee, in and out of major metropolitan areas, or between waterway subregions We estimated potential rail and truck-to-barge diversion quantities for waterway subregions by 4-digit STCC codes – Examined shipping patterns that followed the course of the navigable streams and originated and terminated in or near river counties. – Calculated diversion potentials

6. Tennessee Freight Traffic Mix ModeTons (000)Percent Truck573,28962.9% Rail278,37630.5% Barge60,0386.6%

7. From here forward this presentation focuses on potential truck diversions and longer distance movements (>50 miles)

8. Truck Tonnages by O-D Type (Movements >50 miles) Origin-DestinationTonsPercent Tennessee destination only 69,662,96414% Tennessee origin only 80,932,85516% Tennessee origin and destination 42,507,6718% Through Tennessee 308,488,64962% Total501,592,140100%

9. Top 10 Tennessee Truck Freight Flows (For Movements >50 Miles)

10. Top Four Tennessee Truck Tonnages (For Movements >50 Miles) Commodity (STCC2 Codes) TN Origin TN Dest. TN Origin and Dest. TN ThruTotal Warehouse & Distribution10.811.214.536.272.6 Chemicals2.48.90.543.755.4 Food4.86.31.642.355.0 Nonmetallic ores and minerals 12.313.89.56.742.4 84% of nonmetallic ores/minerals is TN origin or destination Millions of Tons

11. Analytical Project: Estimate Potential Truck-to-Barge Diversion Tonnages Identify all counties on navigable waterways and define county subregions within 30 and 50-mile radii Identify freight totals for 4-digit STCC commodities for those movements having an origin and destination county on or near a waterway county (within 30 or 50 miles) Weight the tons for port to port distance (longer more likely to divert) and distance to the river (shorter more likely to divert) Sum the total of the weighted movements for the waterway county subregions Examine and eliminate overlapping county subregions Retain movements with high weighted values for further examination

12. Navigable Waterway Counties

13. Largest Truck Diversion Potentials for 50-Mile Radii Subregions CommodityAggregate Tons Warehousing and Distribution5,875,357 Broken Stone or Riprap2,104,270 Portland Cement1,011,084 Metallic Ores886,509 Gravel or Sand731,500 Primary Forest Products244,357 Miscellaneous Field Crops194,470 Nonmetallic Minerals Processed181,494 Treated wood Products167,081 Misc. Nonmetallic Minerals138,739 Total12,051,872

14. Further Investigation Field interviews with shippers verified warehouse and distribution center shipments were highly unlikely to divert to barge. Generally, the heavier and more heterogeneous the commodity group composition, the less likely are movements to divert. Heavier, more homogenous commodities such as stone, gravel, sand, gravel, and cement are more likely. These are prime candidates to be explored further.

16. Will the shipping costs by barge be lower than by all truck? It depends. We rated 266,511 tons of stone material (we think it was paving stone) from an on river quarry to a construction site in Wilson County The shipper savings was estimated to be $7.03 per ton – It is assumed that the batch plant is located adjacent to the river – Also, the Global Insight file gives annual numbers and we had to assume the daily value

17. What about Externalities? Scenario 1: A diversion to barge of I24 truck traffic carrying various commodities from Nashville to the Clarksville area. – 1.6 million tons per year/28 trucks per hour in daylight Scenario 2: A diversion of broken stone truck traffic to barge from downtown Clarksville along I24 to Nashville. – Same scenario we rated (266,511 tons)

18. Scenario 1 Social Costs Delays, Accidents, Fuel Costs, Air Pollution Traffic growth ratePresent value social cost 1%$0.149 billion 2%$0.344 billion 3%$1.218 billion

19. Scenario 2 Social Costs Delays, Accidents, Fuel Costs, Air Pollution Traffic growth ratePresent value social cost 1%$0.037 billion 2%$0.085 billion 3%$1.443 billion

20. Open Communication Long-distance stone movements passing in, out, or through multiple states can best be understood or addressed when the state and federal governments have open communication lines. Long truck hauls from Tennessee into Mississippi are most likely destined for MDOT construction projects, and it would have to be MDOT that addresses the transportation issue. TDOT would have no information about the movement.

21. Options for Federal and State Government Examine contracts to determine if water transportation is an option Make modal preference integral to contract-making Advertise: alert shippers to the potential benefits of water transportation Develop partnerships between shippers and carriers Investigate a multi-state corridor study to determine the benefits of using the navigable waterways as a transportation corridor.

22. Conclusion The study yields evidence for significant land freight diversion to water possibilities, such that a multi-state consortium could lower the cost of operating all of the DOTs, make better use of the transportation infrastructure, improve air quality, lessen congestion, and make our highways safer.