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Published byAldous Shields Modified over 9 years ago
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Occidental Petroleum Corp. Ticker (OXY) Domonic Zarrini
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Presentation Outline Portfolio Information Stock Discovery Process Sector/Industry Overview & Analysis Company Overview & Analysis Company News Earnings Analysis Valuation Analysis Recommendation
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Current Portfolio Holdings
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Focusing on domestic Financial stocks Industry Classifications: Oil, Gas and Consumable fuels (Primary) (12233) Index Constituents: S&P 500 Index (^SPX) (31) Market Capitalization: (Latest) Ranks in the 1 st -4 th decile (13) Forward P/E- Capital IQ (NTM): Ranks in the 3 rd -7 th decile (5) Est. Annual EPS Growth – 1yr %: Ranks in the 2 nd -4 th decile (3) Stock Discovery Process
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Apache Corp. (APA) Occidental Petroleum Corp. (OXY) Exxon Mobile Corp (XOM) ConocoPhillips (COP) Chevron Corp (CVX)
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Sector Overview Largely mature industry Great competition and margin pressures Theoretically vast growth potential Easy to value firms Heavily interconnected industry groups Energy Sector rated to “OutPerform”!
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Sector Overview
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S & P 500, Sector, Sub-sector Chart
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Company overview OXY is the largest producer of oil in Texas OXY is the largest producer of natural gas in California OXY is the number one company in Operating Income per BOE for 11 Consecutive years Ranked 13 th in 10 year EPS Growth (25.7% per year) – Top 500 OXY is ranked number 1 in “fortune most admired” crude oil production companies
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Q3 2014 record domestic oil production of 282,000 barrels per day Q3 2014 Permian Resources year over year quarterly oil growth in excess of 26% Q3 2014 core income of $1.2 billion, or $1.58 per diluted share Company overview
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OXY SWOT Analysis Strengths Geographically Diverse Business Incremental Increase in Supply Strong performance by its subsidiaries like Oxychem in helps drive the top line growth of the company Weaknesses Legal proceeding Overleveraged Acquisitions Unsuccessful Acquisition Business Model Opportunities Increase in natural gas demand in the US Market can help the company to drive top-line growth and strengthen the revenue contribution from the US market Strategic initiatives as the Al Hosn gas project at Abu Dhabi (to develop one of the largest natural fields in the Middle East) and a new Membrane Cell Chlor-Alkali plant in Tennessee will help it diversify its portfolio further and bring in higher revenues Threats Political Action Windfall Tax Exploration Risks common to drilling and other exploratory activities can make the company incur significant losses
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What Makes OXY Attractive? Management plans to spend cash on buying back stock and increasing dividends 18%. Pays dividend of 2.88% 5 year dividend growth rate of 17.2% increased consecutively for 11 years Oxy will buy back 10% of outstanding shares while increasing dividend in anticipation of a spinoff into 3 independent companies
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2014 OXY announces spinoff of its California Divison, doing so will allow the company to focus on its core business. In Regards to declining oil prices, OXY is still profitable with prices under $50 What Makes OXY Attractive?
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Next Generation shale technology yet to be used in fields: Automated Drilling MicroDrilling (allows faster deployment with smaller rig footprint) Big Data Analytics (Maximizes yields by tapping into the surprising volume of data from complex shale operations) NanoTechnology (radically improving chemical formulations and safety) What Makes OXY Attractive?
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Raising the Dividend is an important goal for management. OXY’s Board agreed to raise the dividend 2013 from $2.16 to $2.56 18.5% increase Feb 2014 board allowed another 12.50% increase in dividends of $0.72 a share Competitors of OXY cant not compete to such increases (XOM, IMO, HESS)
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What Makes OXY Attractive? Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) biggest user of cash in energy companies. FCF = OCF – CapEx remainder from which DIV can be paid OXY forsee’s major jump in FCF in 2014
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3 Factors that will drive jump of CF Improvement in drilling efficiencies MicroDrilling, NanoTechnology, Automated Drilling, Data Analytics CapEx Reductions Production Growth
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Valuation – earnings & projected earnings OXY20122013201420152016 EPS Normalized $5.66$7.32$7.17$7.56$7.97 EPS Growth 29.33%-2.05%5.42% HES20122013201420152016 EPS Normalized $5.11$4.69$3.45$3.66$3.88 EPS Growth -8.22%-35.94%6.00% COG20122013201420152016 EPS Normalized $ 0.71 $ 1.02 $ 1.22 $ 2.10 EPS Growth 43.66%19.61%72.13%
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OXY HES COGXOM
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Dividend Growth Rate Forecast YearValueg(T) 1g19.22% 2g210.18% 3g311.14% 4g412.09% 5 and there afterg513.05%
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Intrinsic Value of OXY Share Intrinsic Stock Valuation YearDIVDPS ValuePV16.32% 0d02.56 1d12.8$2.41 2d23.08$2.28 3d33.42$2.17 4d43.84$2.10 5d54.34$2.04 5TV(5)150.04$70.46 Intrinsic Value of OXY Share $81.45 Current Stock Price $85.23
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Capital Asset Pricing Method CAPM Rate of ReturnRF2.76% E(RM) 13.49 Beta OXYB(OXY)1.5 Required Rate of Returnr(OXY) 20.22
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OXY Recommendation Impressive Future Cash Flows OXY 2014 appears to have growth drivers necessary to expand Efficient E&P Low cost producer allowing OXY to have lowest cost per barrel permitting highest profit per barrel Room for growth! Undervalued, market realizing only half its value, potential RE BUY!!
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