1. “Demographic Change and the Waikato Region” Dr William Cochrane Research Associate National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis (NIDEA) Convenor Labour Studies Program Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, University of Waikato. billc@waikato.ac.nz

2. Introduction Today I intend to; – Provide some context to current demographic developments; – Outline the projected demographic trajectory of the region; – Place this in the context of national demographic change; – Discuss some of the implications of the end of growth; The data on which this presentation is based is drawn largely from SNZ projections and the work of Professor Natalie Jackson. I alone bear the responsibility for the interpretation given here. 2

3. Percentage of Population 65 and over New Zealand has a relatively young population for a high income (HI) country World Bank Population Projection Tables by Country and Group 3

4. With relatively high fertility 4

5. But as elsewhere, New Zealand is ageing 5

7. With the Waikato being slightly older than NZ as a whole 7 65+ years: 13.8% (NZ 13.3%) 65+ years: 21.8% (NZ 20.8%)

8. And within the Waikato Region itself there is considerable variation 65+ years: 10.7%65+ years: 23.2% Hamilton City = 6 th lowest percentage of population 65+ in NZ TCDC = 2 nd highest percentage of population 65+ in NZ

9. With pronounced youth deficits in some areas 65+ years: 17.3%65+ years: 14.6%

10. Share of NZ’s future growth will be most uneven 10

11. Similarly within the Waikato growth will be unevenly distributed 11 Projected Net Change20112016202120262031 Hamilton City 110009900 97009600 Hauraki* 45015050-100-200 Matamata-Piako 7004003002000 Otorohanga 20-150-190-220-270 South Waikato -400-700-900 -1100 Taupo 700400500300100 Thames-Coromandel* 400200100 0 Waikato 47003700 3400 Waipa 23001800160014001100 Waitomo -40-140 -190-250 Waikato RC 1990015300151001400012400 * includes Natural Decline

12. With high growth in the older age groups 12

13. Waikato is not alone in seeing the end of growth in some TA (36 percent of NZ TAs experienced population decline 1996-2011) 13 %% Ruapehu-22.5Gore-8.9Clutha-4.6 Wairoa-18.5Opotiki-7.1Waitomo-4.1 Chatham Islands-15.8Buller-6.5McKenzie-3.1 Kawerau-14.7Otorohanga-6.4Invercargill-2.2 Rangateiki-11.6Stratford-6.1Waimate-1.9 South Waikato*-11.6Wanganui-5.4Gisborne-1.3 South Taranaki-9.7Waitaki*-5.0Grey-0.7 Tararua-9.5Southland-4.8Horowhenua*-0.3 *experienced natural decline

14. The end of growth Between 2011 and 2031, ALL ‘growth’ in 56 of NZ’s 67 Territorial Authorities (84%) projected to be at 65+ years; all other age groups (combined 0-64 yrs) projected to decline – 23 of these TAs likely to experience overall decline – 12 likely to experience both net migration loss and natural decline Of the remaining 11 TAs: – 95+% of growth at 65+ (Christchurch; Whangarei) – 60-63% growth at 65+ (Waik; Palm. Nth; Waimak.) – 44-46% growth at 65+ (Wtg; Selwyn; TGA) – 36-37% growth at 65+ (Auck; Ham; Queenstown) 14

15. Responses to the end of population growth Population aging and the uneven distribution of growth is not a local issue, it is an issue of national significance, Local government in areas experiencing population decline should not be expected to, and are likely to be unable to given the declining rating base, bear the cost of adjustment to lower population levels and older populations. 15

16. Responses to the end of population growth Given the extent of the problem what is required is national level population and spatial planning, In evolving these plans we have much overseas experience to draw on as much of Europe and parts of North America are already well along this path, Central government is crucial as it alone can guarantee equitable access to quality infrastructure and education 16

17. Responses to the end of population growth Arguably central government has a role in providing support to small and medium sized enterprises (SME) in declining regions as well as subsidising employment. Here local governance can play a key role by fostering and facilitating the development of SME Local governance is also key to facilitating the development of local responses to population decline, particularly in the area of innovative service delivery. 17