Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

DRAFT ATTORNEY-CLIENT PRIVILEGED SPE-Marvel Spider-Man Relationship: Restructuring and Monetization of Merchandise Interest Deal Overview July 2011.

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "DRAFT ATTORNEY-CLIENT PRIVILEGED SPE-Marvel Spider-Man Relationship: Restructuring and Monetization of Merchandise Interest Deal Overview July 2011."— Presentation transcript:

1 DRAFT ATTORNEY-CLIENT PRIVILEGED SPE-Marvel Spider-Man Relationship: Restructuring and Monetization of Merchandise Interest Deal Overview July 2011

2 DRAFT ATTORNEY-CLIENT PRIVILEGED page 1 SPE seeks approval to divest its interest in Spider-Man merchandise, eliminate Marvel’s interest in Spider-Man films, restructure, and improve its operating relationship with Marvel SPE’ s participation in Spider-Man merchandise has been lucrative but has risks and challenges –SPE’s role in merchandise is largely passive –SPE’s relationship with Marvel has come with friction, audits, and litigation –Future prospects for Spider-Man merchandise are uncertain Following Disney’s acquisition, Marvel has proven willing to “buy back” interests in key Marvel properties, creating an opportunity to monetize and restructure –Marvel paid $115MM to buy-back distribution rights on The Avengers and Iron Man from Paramount –Marvel approached SPE to discuss a buyout of its merchandise interest Agreement on financial terms and term-sheet-level agreement on operating relationship have been reached –Economics guarantee a minimum of $175MM and future payments of up to $35MM per film would bring total payments in-line with historical peak levels –Deal generates a gain of approximately $220MM –Both parties would be given greater leeway to operate independently Executive Summary

3 DRAFT ATTORNEY-CLIENT PRIVILEGED page 2 Spider-Man films are core to SPE. But current rights include constraints which SPE is able to loosen as part of this deal –To retain rights, SPE must release films no less frequently than every 5 years and 9 months (1) –CSPE films are to subject to Marvel’s interpretation of rules on “costumes, powers, and origin story” –If Marvel does not believe SPE’s films conform to these rules, they may seek to enjoin release of the film Film Operating Relationship Relationship Overview Marvel is willing to pay an attractive valuation for an income stream that is complex and volatile –SPE has a 25% interest in Spider-Man merchandise, which it does not control –SPE’s interest fluctuates with the release of films, popularity of Spider-Man, and competition –Marvel has a 5% interest in Spider-Man films –Both interests are the subject of frequent audits Economics SPE’s role in merchandise is limited and includes constraints Marvel requires be loosened as part of the deal –Marvel performs all functions for Classic merchandise and licensing sales for Film merchandise –SPE only leads retail marketing and promotion for Film merchandise –Marvel is limited in the look of its film-related merchandise, in its ability to sell “non-film” merchandise at certain times, and in the categories in which it licenses merchandise Merchandise Operating Relationship (1)Subject to rights payments being made 9 months after prior film and principal photography starting three years after rights payment is made.

4 DRAFT ATTORNEY-CLIENT PRIVILEGED page 3 The Revised Operating Structure Would Create Benefits for Both Parties SPE would gain greater leeway to produce, release, and promote films, [including alongside hardware] –Marvel’s approval over film creative aspects would be eliminated in exchange for unambiguous guidelines –Marvel ability to seek to enjoin films for not “conforming” becomes very narrow –Characters granted to SPE will be clarified in an extensive list rather than ambiguous “rules” –Window between film releases would be extended after each trilogy –SPE’s promotional window would be extended to 12 months before and 12 months after the film (from 12 months prior and 7 months after) –[Sony can conduct film co-promotions around hardware with fewer restrictions] [confirm] Marvel would gain increased leadership at retail, benefitting the Spider-Man brand and Marvel’s other properties –Merchandise not required to conform to look of film –“Non-film” merchandise can continue to be sold around the time of the film –Marvel would lead retail discussions, including on “Film” merchandise –[Marvel could license in some categories previously exclusive to SPE, including low-end CE] [confirm] Disputes would be resolved and relationship would be simplified, creating benefits for SPE, SONY overall, and Marvel –Simple payment scheme eliminates need to audit –All litigation, arbitration, and audits are dropped

5 Existing Financial Relationship 25% 5% Marvel pays SPE 25% of all Spider-Man merchandise revenue SPE pays Marvel 5% of Gross Proceeds (1) from Spider-Man films The above results in an average annual net positive participation to SPE (1)Gross film revenue (includes only 30% of video revenue) less MPAA dues, theatrical checking/collection costs, foreign withholding, taxes and residuals. page 4

6 page 5 S-M 1S-M 2S-M 3 SPE Historical Net Participations (SPE’s 25% Spider-Man Merchandise Participation Net of Marvel’s 5% Film Participation) ($Millions) Net proceeds to SPE will fluctuate based on strength / frequency of film releases and market factors Source:SPCP, SPE Legal and SPE CorpDev analysis. Note:Excludes audit adjustments.

7 DRAFT ATTORNEY-CLIENT PRIVILEGED page 6 Total Spider-Man Merchandise Revenue SPE Net Participations: Future Outlook is Uncertain Uplift driven by Disney consumer products infrastructure following Disney’s acquisition of Marvel –International growth –Sales in Disney-owned retail channels –Elimination of international commissions Risk that future films are less popular than prior films, which included 3 of the 4 biggest superhero movies of all time Increased competition in marketplace from other superheroes (e.g., Captain America, Thor, Iron-Man, The Avengers, X-Men, Green Lantern, Batman, Superman) Potential Growth Drivers Potential Decline Risks

8 DRAFT ATTORNEY-CLIENT PRIVILEGED page 7 Deal Structure Note: Cash flows are pre-tax. NPV assumes discount rate of 11.5% and a valuation date of 8/1/11. Assumes films released in 2012, 2014, and 2017 with frequency continuing thereafter in perpetuity (i.e., 3 films per decade). (1)NPV assumes 3 releases per decade; higher/ lower release frequency increases/decreases value. Contingent payment NPV range equates to $600MM to $900MM in worldwide box office performance. Nominal Value of Cash Payments to SPE Payment to SPE at Close Contingent Payments to SPE Estimated NPV of Cash Payments to SPE $175MM Payment of up to $35MM to SPE per film release –Pro-rated from $0 to SPE at $0 of WWBO to $35MM to SPE at $1B of WWBO –Equates to $3.5MM to SPE for every $100MM of WWBO Cap of $130MM in cumulative per film payments per decade $175MM$[ ]MM to $[ ]MM (1) $[ ]MM to $[ ]MM In light of uncertain future participations, deal includes: –Upfront payment to SPE that provides a floor and mitigates risk of future decline –Additional future payments that pay SPE at Spider-Man 3 peak levels if film performance is sustained Marvel’s 5% film participation would be eliminated SPE’s 25% merchandise participation would be eliminated SPE would receive a payment at closing and additional payments tied to the release of each film UPDATE FOOTNOTE

9 DRAFT ATTORNEY-CLIENT PRIVILEGED page 8 Valuation Considerations Third party valuation shows deal is at fair value across a range of scenarios Valuation represents the NPV of SPE’s cash flow associated with Spider-Man merchandise net of any payments to Marvel for film participations Worst Case – Illustrative Only One more film[$175][$100] Downside Risk – HL More films but competitive pressure decreases merchandise [$223][$157] Historical Levels – Illustrative Only More films, box, and merchandise similar to history [$244][$215] Highest Case – HLMore films, merchandise grows[$251][$297] ScenarioAssumptionsDealNo Deal NPV ($Millions) Note: Forecasts include assumptions on the frequency and probability of releasing additional pictures, as well as growth or decline in merchandise sales. Discount rate of X%; no assumption of perpetuity or final year exit. UPDATE FOOTNOTE Houlihan Lokey (HL) Analysis

10 DRAFT ATTORNEY-CLIENT PRIVILEGED page 9 Preliminary Estimate FYE12 Incremental Income Up-front consideration$175 Plus: Fair value of Marvel’s film participation (1) + $55to$75 $230to$250 Less: Amortization – ($20)to($40) Estimated Incremental Income$210 ($Millions) Final calculation of incremental income is dependent on review by PwC (1)Income generated via the creation of a prepaid film participation asset. LowHigh

11 DRAFT ATTORNEY-CLIENT PRIVILEGED page 10 Deal Impact on SPE Financials Notes: (1) "No Deal" Assumptions: Spider-Man 2012 (FYE13) $75m CP net revs/ ($13m) parts + ($10m) prod cost = ($23m) total pmts to Marvel (2) $75m ult is recd $45m in FY 13 and $30m in FYE14; Assumes next Spider-Man title is released within 2 years (3) Amort rates for FYE11 and FYE12 are 38% (SM-3); for FYE13 and FYE14 are 43% assuming NO DEAL and 46.5% assuming DEAL (4) Gain = $175m cash + 36m NPV of Marvel parts - amort on revs going to SM-3 of $30*38%=(11m) - (10m) misc costs/BS items = $190m (5) $1m currently to Marvel; assumed pmt amounts would materially equate to expense. (6) Exp re Marvel participation in FYE13/14 is based on estimated share of "normal" CP ultimate in new Spider-Man-2012 model. Kathy to Update FYE11 Gain 210; pmt from MVL in no deal around 20; FYE12 payment from MVL in no deal greater than 20

12 DRAFT ATTORNEY-CLIENT PRIVILEGED page 11 Status and Next Steps Review materials with Kato-San Investment Committee review July 25 GEC review July 26 Completion of long-form and execution anticipated in August (subject to GEC approval)

13 APPENDIX

14 DRAFT ATTORNEY-CLIENT PRIVILEGED Summary of Accounting All figures are rounded and illustrative only Subject to final review by PwC SPE’s 25% merchandise participation eliminated – NPV of $300MM Marvel’s 5% film participation eliminated – NPV of $55MM SPE receives $175MM cash payment Net NPV of $245MM Action At Close Accounting $175MM booked as income (positive EBIT) $55MM booked as creation of prepaid film participation payment asset (positive to EBIT) $20MM of amortization associated with above bookings Net effect of $210MM Going Forward Action Films are released SPE receives per film payments of up to $35MM NPV of $70MM; Brings SPE total NPV to $245MM Accounting $55MM prepaid asset is amortized as films are released (1) Up to $35MM film payments recognized as income, decreased by ~40% amortization rate (1)Note: No payments made to Marvel. If films are not released, all $50MM would need to be written off.

15 DRAFT ATTORNEY-CLIENT PRIVILEGED page 14 Historical Net Participations to SPE Source:SPCP, SPE Legal and SPE CorpDev analysis. S-M 1S-M 2S-M 3 SPE and Marvel Historical Spider-Man Participations ($MM, excl. Audit Adjustments) $3.1$6.3$25.0$7.2$20.2$27.1$29.0$30.4$18.7 Net to SPE

16 DRAFT ATTORNEY-CLIENT PRIVILEGED Spider-Man Deal Structure Release YrR+1R+2Total (3 Yrs) Spider-Man 3 Actual Net to SPE ($MM) $27.1$29.0$30.4$86.5 Deal $175MM at close implies $17.5MM per year x 3 years Up to $35MM per film at $1BN of WWBO (capped at $130MM per decade) When SPE releases Spider-Man films that perform in-line with Spider-Man 3, the deal structure mimics the net payments SPE received on Spider-Man 3 page 15 TBD IF INCLUDED

17 DRAFT ATTORNEY-CLIENT PRIVILEGED Key Valuation Drivers Note: Analysis assumes 11.5% discount rate and 3% rate of inflation where applicable. Key DriversDescription # / Frequency of Future Films Release of future films probability-weighted Films released every 2, 3 and 5 years consistent with history (except as noted in “worst case” scenario) Future Film Box Office Range Performance ranges from low of $400MM to high of $900MM % Change in Merchandise Sales with Decreases in Box Office in Downside Risk Cases Discount to merchandise sales related to film box office under-performance relative to box office for Spider-Man 3 –0% correlation implies merchandise not impacted by box office decline –50% correlation implies if Spider-Man 4 box office is 50% of Spider- Man 4, merchandise declines 25% % Growth in Merchandise Highest Cases Disney uplift includes both international expansion and elimination of international commissions that ranges from 0% to 25% phased in with the release of the next three films % Decline in Merchandise Downside Risk Cases Discount for competition in marketplace from other superheroes and risk associated with rebooting franchise ranges from 0% to 10% page 16

18 DRAFT ATTORNEY-CLIENT PRIVILEGED Key Valuation Drivers by Valuation Scenario Key DriversWorst CaseDownside RiskHistorical LevelsHighest Case # / Frequency of Future Films One and out2 / 3 / 5 Future Film Box Office Range $600MM$600MM to $900MM $832MM$600MM to $900MM % Change in Merchandise Sales with Decrease in Box Office in Downside Risk Cases 50% 0% % Growth in Merchandise Highest Cases N/A (declines) N/A (flat)5%, 15%, 25% (phased in) % Decline in Merchandise Downside Risk Cases 10% N/A (flat)N/A (grows) Probability of Releasing a Film N/AS-M 4 – 100% S-M 20 – 5% S-M 4 – 100% S-M 20 – 5% S-M 4 – 100% S-M 20 – 5% page 17


Download ppt "DRAFT ATTORNEY-CLIENT PRIVILEGED SPE-Marvel Spider-Man Relationship: Restructuring and Monetization of Merchandise Interest Deal Overview July 2011."

Similar presentations


Ads by Google