1. New Findings On Secular Trends In Nutrition And Mortality: Some Implications For Population Theory Presented by Hui Huang Robert William Fogel

2. Introduction Integration of Biomedical techniques with Economic techniques

3. Four parts of discussion 1. s2: the evolution of thought on the secular decline in mortality 2. s3: from famines to chronic malnutrition 3. s4: new theory about food supply and population equilibrium 4. s5: implication of the theory for current population issues

4. The evolution of thought on, and knowledge of, the secular decline in mortality Section 2

5. Malthusian Theory of Population 1798 Periodical mortality crises were created by the pressure of population on food supplies Mortality rate declines when the pressure was relieved Mortality decline were temporary

6. Initial efforts to explain the secular decline in mortality Relationship between food supply and mortality rates Focused on abstracts of parish records collected by government Explanations: public health reforms advances in medical knowledge …etc

7. McKeown’s challenge to consensus view Consensus explanation: changes in technology and public health reforms McKeown: improved nutrition Set off an extensive controversy

8. Crisis mortality and famines Mid-1980s: debate over mortality crises Crisis mortality was the main source of the high mortality rate? the famines were the source of the crises?

9. Measuring the extent and significance of chronic malnutrition Section 3

10. Energy cost accounting Basal metabolic rate (BMR) Energy requirement beyond maintenance Sources of estimates of mean caloric consumptions national food balance sheets household survey food allotments in various institutions...

11. Estimating the levels and distributions of caloric consumption in Britain and France near the end of the Ancien Regime

13. The implication of stature and body mass indexes for the explanation of secular trends in morbidity and mortality

16. Implications for population theory Section 4

17. How variations in body size brought the population and the food supply into balance and determined the level of mortality

18. The nature of European famines Man-made rather than natural disaster.

19. Contribution of improved nutrition and health to the growth of labor productivity

20. Conclusions and implications Section 5

21. The principal findings Crisis mortality accounted for a small share The famines were man-made Proper government policy could not have eliminated the chronic malnutrition. Improvements in nutritional status explains much of the decline in mortality rates. Stunting increases mortality rates

22. Implication for current policy Third World Highly developed countries Food supply