1. Islamic State: Insights from Strategic Subcultures Theory and Combatting Terrorist Propaganda ALEX BURNS (ALEX@ALEXBURNS.NET)ALEX@ALEXBURNS.NET SPS SYMPOSIUM, 28 TH OCTOBER 2015 PHD CANDIDATE, SCHOOL OF POLITICS & SOCIAL INQUIRY, MONASH UNIVERSITY

2. 2015 Thesis Milestones  Mid-Candidature Review Panel (26 th October 2015).  Research training in intellectual property rights and business development.  35,000 words draft working notes written in 2015.  Focus on Process Tracing as main methodology: identify causal mechanisms (e.g. cultural transmission, social learning, and folklore).  Identification of possible areas for future research.

3. Research Methodology  Small-N case study using “heuristic” approach: existing literature versus strategic subculture explanations (George & Bennett 2005).  Selection of deviant and extreme cases (Gerring 2012).  Process tracing that identifies the causal mechanisms and processes that link X1 (terrorist organisation exists and rapidly grows) and Y1 outcome (survival over a significant time period and carries out successful terrorist campaigns) (George & Bennett 2005; Brun & Pedersen 2013; Bennett & Checkel 2015).  Qualitative data coding (causation / narrative / thematic) of primary and secondary sources (Saldana 2013; Weller & Barnes 2014; Guest, MacQueen & Namey 2012).  Beginning of database / codebook for Large-N future research.

4. Strategic Culture Defined: Jack Snyder  Formulated in 1977 by Jack Snyder for a RAND monograph on Ford and Carter administration détente and the Soviet Union  “Individuals are socialized into a distinctly Soviet mode of thinking... a set of general beliefs, attitudes and behavioral patterns... that places them on the level of “culture” rather than mere “policy”...” [emphasis added] (Snyder 1977: v)  “Culture is perpetuated not only by individuals but also by organizations.” (Snyder 1977: 9).  “Strategic subculture:... a subsection of the broader strategic community... Reasonably distinct beliefs and attitudes.” (Snyder 1977: 10).

5. Islamic State as Proto-Strategic Subculture  Decision Elite / Senior Leadership  Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s elevation to IS leadership in 2010  Deputies (for Iraq and Syria), Shura Council, and military leader  Able to regenerate despite air bombing campaigns / drone attacks  Strategic Vision  Re-establish the Caliphate declared on 29 th June 2014 in Mosul, Iraq  Geographic control of areas of northern Iraq and Syria  Military Strategy  Urban attacks to spark sectarian conflict with Shia and Alawi Muslims (Lister 28)  Attrition / psychological warfare campaigns against Iraqi national forces (Lister 29)  Acquisition of Iraq Army and United States Army equipment for force projection

6. Islamic State’s ‘Shell-State’ Strategy  Loretta Napoleoni (2014: 32) contends that Islamic State is using a ‘shell-state’ strategy to set-up the administrative and legislative structure of a nation-state  Control of oil refinery and water infrastructure in northern Iraq and Syria  Geopolitical integration of Sunni Muslim communities  ‘Shell-state’ strategy enables comparative analysis with Hamas, Hezbollah and other terrorist organisations  Possible comparative analysis with Michael G. Findley, Daniel L. Nielson and J.C. Sharman’s Global Shell Games: Experiments in Transnational Relations, Crime and Terrorism (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2014)

7. Understanding Political Propaganda  Political Propaganda “is a kind of speech that fundamentally involves political, economic, aesthetic or rational ideals, mobilized for a political purpose” (Stanley 2015: 52)  Supporting Propaganda uses “emotional or other nonrational means” to anchor political ideals (Stanley 2015: 53)  Undermining Propaganda corrodes political ideals (Stanley 2015: 53)  Media sources and schools in liberal democracies are “a site or mechanism for the production of propaganda” (Stanley 2015: 54)

8. Islamic State’s Propaganda  Islamic State uses Supporting Propaganda and information control to promote its Caliphate vision and to attract new recruits  Islamic State’s jihadist decapitation and torture videos use fear conditioning to target the Iraq Army and Western audiences as a form of the Social Learning mechanism (Hoppitt and Laland 2013: 54-55)  Genocide-like targeting of religious and minority groups including Alawites, Yazidis, and Druze  Response from Western writers like Jay Sekulow (American Centre for Law and Justice) fits a Threat Escalation microfoundation of strategic culture (Dr Alan Bloomfield, UNSW)

9. Combatting Terrorist Propaganda  FY2015-16 Federal Budget the Australian Government committed $A21.7 million for the next four years “to limit the impact of extremist narratives on domestic audiences” (Commonwealth of Australia 2015: 62)  Countering Violent Extremism (CVE) approaches (Australian Government 2015; Monash University GTReC 2010-2013; Tahiri and Grossman 2013; Lentini 2012)  Former Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s “Death Cult” rhetoric (Lentini 2015) as Undermining Propaganda  Sentiment analysis (Liu 2015) and computational analysis (Subrahmanian et al 2013) methods to examine Supporting Propaganda examples in social media  Understand propaganda in a possibly multipolar world

10. Case Study Provisional Findings  Strategic subculture framework focuses on Islamic State’s rapid growth  Re-establishing the Caliphate illustrates a State Emulation strategy  Social Learning mechanism is key to jihadist recruitment / training and combat readiness  Cultural Transmission and Folklore mechanisms underpin social media strategy  Islamic State’s leadership is publicly known and can be profiled ‘at a distance’  Great Power response provides test of national strategic cultures  Islamic State has exploited meso- and macro-level weaknesses in Iraq government; 2011-present Syrian civil war and Assad regime; and United States foreign policies on Iraq and Syria  United States proxy war strategy using Free Syrian Army and other actors has been unable to halt Islamic State’s recruitment or use of social media networks to mobilise Westerners  Russian air bombing campaign in October 2015 reflects Jack Snyder’s original research in 1977  Spillover effect of Syrian refugee flows into EU countries (Greece, Austria, Germany)

11. Discussion