1. Transitioning a Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System to Operations 1. Introduction NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS) Draft Strategic Plan (22 Feb 2010) lists five long term goals, including: o Enable Integrated Environmental Prediction Capabilities and Services Supporting Healthy Communities and Ecosystems. Develop a prototype ecological system to predict the likelihood of encountering sea nettles (Chrysaora quinquecirrha), a stinging jellyfish, in the Chesapeake Bay (http://155.206.18.162/seanettles/index.php). o Advance the proof-of-concept for a NOAA Ecological Forecasting System that is scalable and extensible. 2. Sea Nettle Predictions Sea nettles seasonally infest the Chesapeake Bay and affect many activities. Recreational boaters, swimmers, commercial waterman, and energy producers (Calvert Cliffs Nuclear Power Plant) currently use these prototype sea nettle predictions. Operational system will produce gridded forecasts of sea nettle predictions (e.g., Fig. 1). Sea-surface temperature (SST) and salinity from the Chesapeake Bay Operational Forecasting System (CBOFS2) drives a habitat model (Fig. 2). CBOFS2 is a 3-dimensional hydrodynamic model developed by NOAA’s National Ocean Service (NOS) for the Chesapeake Bay & run at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (Fig. 3). Figure 1. Example prediction of the likelihood of encountering sea nettles, on 17 August 2007 in the Chesapeake Bay. Figure 2. Conceptual approach of the sea nettle ecological prediction system. Salinity expressed in Practical Salinity Units (psu). Salinity psu SST o C Likelihood of Sea Nettles Frank Aikman 1, Christopher Brown 2, Mary Erickson 1, David Green 3, Edward Mandel 3, David Manning 4, Therese Pierce 3, Steven Pritchett 3, Anthony Siebers 5, David Soroka 3, Hendrik Tolman 6, Elizabeth Turner 1, Nathalie Valette-Silver 7, Doug Wilson 8 1 NOAA National Ocean Service, Silver Spring, MD, 2 NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service, College Park, MD, 3 NOAA, National Weather Service, Silver Spring, MD, 4 NOAA, National Weather Service, Eastern Region, Bohemia, NY, 5 NOAA, National Weather Service Forecast Office, Wakefield, VA, 6 NOAA, National Weather Service, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Camp Springs, MD, 7 NOAA National Ocean Service, Durham, NH, 8 NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office, Annapolis, MD Figure 3. Schematic of the Chesapeake Bay Operational Forecasting System (CBOFS2). CBOFS2 simulates salinity, temperature, and other physical variables in the bay. Figure 4. Five sequential stages of the Operations and Services Improvement Process (OSIP) of the National Weather Service and their intent. Stage 1: Develop Statement of Need, and construct initial project plan. Stage 2: Develop Concept of Operations. Stage 3: Define technical requirements, develop business case, operational development plan, and national strategic training and educational plan. Stage 4: Present plans for approval to deploy operational system. Stage 5: Deploy, maintain, and assess operational system. Collection & Validation Concept Exploration & Definition Applied Research & Analysis Operational Development Deploy, Maintain & Assess Temperature and Salinity Wind River Flow and Load Precipitation Solar Radiation Tidal Harmonics Currents Atmospheric Deposition & Ventilation Heat Flux 0%0% 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Conditions at the mouth of the Bay Near-real time water level Climatological vertical profiles of temperature, salinity, and NO 3, PO 4, O 2 concentrations 4. Significance Help establish an Ecological Forecasting System at NOAA. Can be modified for other ecological forecasts, including harmful algal blooms and water-borne pathogens in the Chesapeake Bay. Represents a test case for integrated environmental service at NOAA, where several NOAA Line Offices contribute. o Promote an enterprise architecture and earth system management infrastructure, o Link multidisciplinary capabilities and leverage existing observing, data and computational infrastructures, o Disseminate ecological forecasts along with weather and water forecasts. These will be integrated with the NWS Internet, coastal waters and/or surf zone forecasts. 3. Transition Process Use the NWS Operations and Services Improvement Process (OSIP) 5-stage requirements management process for bringing research results into NWS operational environment (Fig. 4). Charter an Integrated Work Team (IWT) with appropriate governance practices, and identify milestones and outputs. o The IWT has been established and is composed of members from NWS, NOS, and NESDIS. Statement of Need and Project Plan are complete. The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction system is anticipated to be operational by the end of 2010. Habitat Model SST 26-30 o C Salinity 10-16 psu Likelihood of Sea Nettles 35 0 30 25 20 15 10 5 35 0 30 25 20 15 10 5 0%0% 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100