1. Conservation Resources Draft Seventh Power Plan Conservation Potential Assessment

2. What the Data Represent  Inputs to Regional Portfolio Model (RPM)  Achievable potential, cost & pace  These are not conservation targets  Cost-effectiveness & targets determined later  RPM Will Analyze Resource Options  Conservation  Generation  Demand Response  Market Purchases 2

3. Overview of Drivers Relative to the 6 th Plan Conservation Potential : 3 Decreases due to: Conservation accomplishments New and revised state energy codes and federal standards Lower Load forecast Culled measures Increases due to: New measures Higher units counts for some measures Decreases/Increases/Remains the Same due to: Updated assessments of stock and market characteristics

4. Sixth Plan Accomplishments 4Forecast 2014 - 2015 Program Savings All contribute to creating momentum savings

5. 36 New Federal Efficiency Standards Take Effect This Decade 5

6. Impact of Federal Standards on Loads* 6 *Draft estimate, subject to change

7. Baseline Load Forecast is Lower 7

8. When Will We Need Resources and How Much Will We Need? Forecast Range for the Net Change in Average Energy Loads & Resources* 8 * Reflects Average Water and Announced Resource Additions and Retirements 1500 – 3000 aMW 3600 – 6800 aMW

9. When Will We Need Resources and How Much Will We Need? Forecast Range for the Net Change in Peak Loads & Resources* 4000 – 8200 MW 1600 – 3600 MW * Reflects Average Water and Announced Resource Additions and Retirements

10. 10

11. Total Possible Load Reduction 11

12. 12

13. Cumulative Max Conservation by Cost Bin (20 years) 13

14. Cumulative Max Conservation by Cost Bin (5 years) 14

15. Seventh Power Plan Conservation Price Bin 15

16. Max Achievable Conservation by Sector at Various Price Bins (Cumulative 2035) 16

17. Achievable Savings ~22% of Load (All Cost Bins) 17 20252035 Sector Achievable Technical Potential (aMW) Achievable Potential as Percent of Load Achievable Technical Potential (aMW) Achievable Potential as Percent of Load Residential124815%237927% Commercial114415%180920% Industrial44211%55512% Agriculture899%12613% Utility76 <1% 2181% Total300014%508622%

18. Measure List  Over 100 measures and around 1600 measure permutations analyzed across five sectors  Significant new measures  Solid state lighting  Variable refrigerant flow HVAC systems  HP clothes dryer  Advanced power strips  6P measures removed or modified  TVs  Packaged refrigeration systems  New residential construction insulation upgrades  Distribution system (modified) 18

19. 19

20. What’s New? 20 Savings from New Measures2035 (aMW) Agriculture 22 Irrigation Efficiency 19 Lighting 3 Commercial 1,049 Advanced Rooftop Controller 119 Bi-Level Stairwell Lighting 11 Compressed Air 4 DCV Parking Garage 13 DHP 60 Exterior Building Lighting 142 LEC Exit Sign 19 Lighting Controls Interior 37 Low Power LF Lamps 40 LPD Package 391 Motors Rewind 5 Secondary Glazing Systems 40 Smart Plug Power Strips 47 VRF 92 Water Cooler Controls 13 WEPT 11 WHTanks 2 Industrial 38 Lighting 38 Residential 1,196 Advanced Power Strips 262 Aerator 32 ASHP 122 Behavior 45 Clothes Dryer 53 DHP Ducted 158 EV Supply Equip 7 Lighting 462 Lighting PPA 42 WIFI enabled tstats 12 Grand Total 2,306

21. How Much ET? 21 Savings from Emerging Technologies2035 (aMW) Residential 1,460 Advanced Power Strips 262 ASHP 122 Behavior 45 Clothes Dryer 53 DHP Ducted 158 EV Supply Equip 7 HPWH 289 Lighting 462 Lighting PPA 42 WasteWater Heat Recovery 8 WIFI enabled tstats 12 Commercial 848 Advanced Rooftop Controller 119 Exterior Building Lighting 142 LEC Exit Sign 19 Lighting Controls Interior 37 LPD Package 391 Smart Plug Power Strips 47 VRF 92 Agriculture 22 Irrigation Efficiency 19 Lighting 3 Industrial 38 Lighting 38 Grand Total 2,369

22. Savings Shape by Heavy & Light Load Hours 22

23. Winter Peak vs. Annual Energy 23

24. Summer Peak vs. Annual Energy 24

25. What about Demand Response?  Council staff have indentified significant DR potential  Early RPM results indicate low-cost DR (~$25/MW/yr) is being purchased in nearly all futures  Levels of acquisition 2-3X greater than current deployment levels  There is some overlap between EE measures and DR (e.g. HPWH, controls) 25

26. Some Observations  Over 5000 aMW of conservation identified by year 20  Similar cost profile to 6P  Lots at <$40/MWh  Many new measures & emerging tech  Will need regional coordination to achieve  Significant impact on winter peak  Can increase if include measures with DR functionality 26

27. MEASURES IN THE SEVENTH PLAN CONSERVATION ASSESSMENT Supplemental Slides 27

28. Residential Measures Total Achievable Potential Available by Year (aMW) Residential 2020 aMW 2025 aMW 2035 aMW TRC Lvl Cost ($/MWh) HVAC 205 426 806137 ResWx 143 229 251114 ASHP 7 34 122384 Controls Commissioning &Sizing 3 14 5047 DHP 9 40 143126 DHP Ducted 20 66 15845 Duct Sealing 19 30 3457 GSHP 0 2 19170 WIFI enabled tstats 3 9 1240 Heat Recovery Ventilation 0 2 16124 Lighting 157 362 504-12 Lighting 115 319 462-8 Lighting PPA 42 -58 Water Heating 98 255 61287 Showerheads 57 96 121-195 HPWH 6 51 289176 Behavior 13 34 4530 Solar Water Heater 13 32 56658 Clothes Washer 7 23 60-73 Aerator 3 17 32-282 Dishwasher 0 0 193 WasteWater Heat Recovery 0 1 8191 Residential 2020 aMW 2025 aMW 2035 aMW TRC Lvl Cost ($/MWh) Electronics 54 171 30375 Advanced Power Strips 23 134 26266 Computer 26 30 33151 Monitor 5 7 849 Refrigeration 1 7 58228 Refrigerator 1 6 55232 Freezer 0 0 3153 Food Preparation 5 15 34328 Electric Oven 4 11 28396 Microwave 1 4 632 Dryer 3 13 53121 Clothes Dryer 3 13 53121 Whole Bldg/Meter Level 0 1 7829 EV Supply Equip 0 1 7829 Grand Total 523 1,249 2,379 92

29. Spread of Levelized Costs – Weatherization 7P

30. Commercial Measures Total Achievable Potential Available by Year (aMW) Commercial 2020 aMW 2025 aMW 2035 aMW TRC Lvl Cost ($/MWh) Lighting 196 448 71117 LPD Package 102 208 39113 Low Power LF Lamps 11 35 4024 Lighting Controls Interior 5 14 37130 Exterior Building Lighting 46 118 14212 Street & Roadway Lighting 24 53 61-34 Parking Lighting 5 8 825 Bi-Level Stairwell Lighting 1 4 1179 LEC Exit Sign 3 8 1913 Electronics 77 263 39220 Data Centers 37 185 26116 Smart Plug Power Strips 25 41 4797 Desktop 10 25 56-8 Monitor 5 11 24-8 Laptop 0 1 4-8 HVAC 112 287 46963 Advanced Rooftop Controller 14 72 11928 Commercial EM 39 64 7339 DCV Parking Garage 7 11 1340 Demand Control Ventilation 12 20 2171 DHP 8 37 6063 Secondary Glazing Systems 2 14 40212 VRF 4 26 9269 Premium Fume Hood 0 1 440 Economizer 16 25 2639 DCV Restaurant Hood 5 7 851 WEPT 4 9 1180 Commercial 2020 aMW 2025 aMW 2035 aMW TRC Lvl Cost ($/MWh) Refrigeration 36 64 7635 Grocery Refrigeration Bundle 35 55 6335 Water Cooler Controls 1 9 1332 Food Preparation 4 19 64-26 Cooking Equipment 4 18 63-23 Pre-Rinse Spray Valve 1 1 1-238 Process Loads 15 41 4925 Municipal Sewage Treatment 11 29 3526 Municipal Water Supply 4 12 1424 Motors/Drives 5 16 3924 ECM-VAV 4 12 3424 MotorsRewind 1 4 527 Compressed Air 1 2 442 Compressed Air 1 2 442 Water Heating 3 5 6-327 Showerheads 3 4 4-523 WHTanks 0 1 230 Grand Total 449 1,144 1,809 28

31. Agriculture Measures Total Achievable Potential Available by Year (aMW) Agriculture2020 aMW2025 aMW2035 aMW TRC Lvl Cost ($/MWh) Irrigation 53 83 11833 Irrigation Hardware 29 46 5336 Irrigation Pressure 1 8 2436 Irrigation Water Mgmt 22 33 Irrigation Efficiency 1 6 19 Lighting 2 3 3-25 Dairy 0 0 05 Lighting 2 3 3-28 Motors/Drives 2 3 327 Dairy 0 0 0-6 Irrigation Motor 2 3 328 Refrigeration 0 1 1-6 Dairy 0 1 1-6 Grand Total 57 89 126 31

32. Industrial Measures Total Achievable Potential Available by Year (aMW) Industrial 2020 aMW 2025 aMW 2035 aMW TRC Lvl Cost ($/MWh) Pumps 33 68 8016 Fans 19 48 5725 Energy Project Management 28 72 8643 Integrated Plant Energy Management 19 39 77-3 Lighting 25 34 387 Plant Energy Management 26 35 4026 Food Processing 7 12 1447 Food Storage 34 54 6232 Compressed Air 6 10 1117 Material Handling 9 25 2949 Hi-Tech 7 12 14-38 Pulp 2 4 814 Paper 3 6 1260 Wood 6 15 18-64 Metals 0 0 0-2055 Motors 3 7 832 Transformers - - -0 Belts - - -0 Grand Total 227 442 555 19

33. Utility System Measures Total Achievable Potential Available by Year (aMW) Utility 2020 aMW 2025 aMW 2035 aMW TRC Lvl Cost ($/MWh) Distribution System Efficiency 24 76 21831 1 - LDC voltage control method 9 29 83-2 2 - Light system improvements 5 17 503 3 - Major system improvements 6 19 5560 4 - EOL voltage control method 3 10 2897 A - SCL implement EOL w/ major system improvements 0 1 2322 Grand Total 24 76 218 31