1. Northwest Power Planning Council, January 2001 Electricity Price Forecast Sensitivity Analysis Jeff King Regional Technical Forum January 9, 2001

2. Northwest Power Planning Council, January 2001 Basic Assumptions New projects are developed by private, independent developers Projects under construction are completed; additional projects are market-driven. Projects scheduled for retirement are retired; additional retirements are market-driven. Constant “Mean Price” water conditions. Average loads. No transmission upgrades. Pre-ISO transmission rates (“pancaked”). Bid margin set at 5% of variable cost. Operating reserves set at 6.5%.

3. Northwest Power Planning Council, January 2001 RTF Sensitivity Study Assumptions Natural gas Prices Request: NYMEX futures contracts in near-term; $3.75/MMBtu by end of study period. This run: as requested. Renewables incentives/environmental externalities Request: 2 c/kWh renewables incentive; phased to equivalent CO2 tax 2005 - 2015. This run: 1.5 c/kWh renewables incentive; phased to $20/ton CO2 tax 2005 - 2015. NOx Offsets Request: NOx offset prices consistent with current offset market. This run: A&R study assumptions ($0.80 cents/lb, all hours)

4. Northwest Power Planning Council, January 2001 Gas Price Forecast (Henry Hub)

5. Northwest Power Planning Council, January 2001 Forecast Resource Development: Pacific Northwest

6. Northwest Power Planning Council, January 2001 Forecast Resource Development: WSCC

7. Northwest Power Planning Council, January 2001 Forecast Mid-Columbia Prices

8. Northwest Power Planning Council, January 2001 Levelized Mid-Columbia Forecasts

9. Northwest Power Planning Council, January 2001 Four-segment Monthly Averages

10. Northwest Power Planning Council, January 2001 Comparison of Monthly Averages