1. UNFPA/UNECE/NIDI Training programme on international migration, Geneva, 24-28/01/2005 1. Consequences of migration for countries of out-migration Jeannette Schoorl, NIDI WEDNESDAY January 26 Session 2: Consequences of migration

2. UNFPA/UNECE/NIDI Training programme on international migration, Geneva, 24-28/01/2005 Demographic consequences Population growth: Despite high net out-migration, most countries of out-emigration are characterised by demographic growth Example: Middle East, North Africa, Gulf (MENA-20) 2000:316 million 2025:492 million 2050:638 million

3. UNFPA/UNECE/NIDI Training programme on international migration, Geneva, 24-28/01/2005 Demographic consequences Population decrease: Some countries in Eastern Europe, at least in the short run, face both demographic decline and net out-migration, worsening the effect of ageing and population decline.

4. UNFPA/UNECE/NIDI Training programme on international migration, Geneva, 24-28/01/2005 Migration and development: migration  development development  migration

5. UNFPA/UNECE/NIDI Training programme on international migration, Geneva, 24-28/01/2005 Stagnating economic growth Poverty Rapid population growth Unemployment and underemployment Unbalanced distribution of wealth Pressure on agricultural and other resources Globalisation Bad governance / human rights Violent conflict & lack of security ‘Migration culture’ Causes of migration: manifold and complex

6. UNFPA/UNECE/NIDI Training programme on international migration, Geneva, 24-28/01/2005 The motives of individual migrants often are a mix of voluntary and forced aspects, that cannot be separated from structural conditions. Moreover, migration decision making involves both the individual and his/her family.

7. UNFPA/UNECE/NIDI Training programme on international migration, Geneva, 24-28/01/2005 A multidimensional process connected by which a more balanced distribution of wealth / prosperity, and better opportunities for a viable future (poverty reduction), and for reduction of insecurity are achieved Consequences: –increases individual opportunities to migrate, –but brings about that fewer people will want to or need to migrate What is development?

8. UNFPA/UNECE/NIDI Training programme on international migration, Geneva, 24-28/01/2005 Early development: migration opportunities available to few (high material and immaterial costs) Middle development: expectations increase, but still insufficient opportunities to effectuate them in the home country; migration increases as more people can afford the costs Further development: with increasing opportunities to build a viable future at home, the need for migration decreases Development processes and migration:

9. UNFPA/UNECE/NIDI Training programme on international migration, Geneva, 24-28/01/2005 Brain drain: widely studied in 1960s-1970s and re-emerging as an issue –e.g., OECD study: 20-30% of all physicians in USA/Canada/UK are foreign-trained. Developing countries supply ca. 56% of all migrating physicians and receive less than 11%. –Brain-drain from Russia implies a substantial taxpayer subsidy to MDCs (Malakha, 2002) Brain gain: –the anticipation of migration opportunities may stimulate human capital formation. As only a minority eventually migrates, the country’s human capital and economic growth overall may benefit. Labour migration:

10. UNFPA/UNECE/NIDI Training programme on international migration, Geneva, 24-28/01/2005 +‘Remittances’ (but selective in nature) +Transnational activities (local effects) +Transfer of skills and knowledge +Social / political influence of migrants +Escape valve (to some extent) for lack of employment opportunities and associated social unrest Positive consequences of (labour) migration for development:

11. UNFPA/UNECE/NIDI Training programme on international migration, Geneva, 24-28/01/2005 -Brain drain (loss of human capital, incl. highly skilled; loss of investment in education) -Social: disruption of family life -Export of labour: sensitive to economic fluctuations -Inflationary effects on local economies -Increase of local inequalities -Emergence of a ‘culture of migration’ Negative consequences of (labour) migration for development:

12. UNFPA/UNECE/NIDI Training programme on international migration, Geneva, 24-28/01/2005 Dual causes --> dual policy instruments: –reducing protectionist trade policies –stimulating or curbing emigration (remittances; brain drain; capacity building) –return migration programmes –migration of employment; out-sourcing –employment creation; good governance; human rights: taking into account the potentially migration generating effects of development (projects). E.g. social disruption & democratisation processes e.g. local / regional reception of refugees

13. UNFPA/UNECE/NIDI Training programme on international migration, Geneva, 24-28/01/2005 Consequences for country of origin: –loss of human capital –remittances Consequences for country of destination: –pressures on resources / local economy –gain of human capital –competition, problems of integration Migration of refugees and asylum seekers

14. UNFPA/UNECE/NIDI Training programme on international migration, Geneva, 24-28/01/2005 Policy options: –preventive policies (stimulation of good governance; human rights) Processes of democratisation may stimulate out-migration Development co-operation often focused on countries with good governance; humanitarian aid aimed at countries in crisis Migration of refugees and asylum seekers

15. UNFPA/UNECE/NIDI Training programme on international migration, Geneva, 24-28/01/2005 Policy options: –reception / protection within the region (temporary) –the ‘3 durable solutions’: repatriation, local integration, resettlement in a third country nowadays repatriation is the favoured aim, but local integration tends to be the actual practice Development projects / reception in neighbouring countries may attract additional migrants / refugees

16. UNFPA/UNECE/NIDI Training programme on international migration, Geneva, 24-28/01/2005 Remittances Investments –e.g. support of initiatives for local development by migrant organisations Transfer of knowledge and experience –e.g. involvement of migrants in development projects Political mobilisation, lobbying –migrant organisations in the diaspora as ‘ambassadors’ for development Diaspora: the role of migrant communities

17. UNFPA/UNECE/NIDI Training programme on international migration, Geneva, 24-28/01/2005 Use of remittances: –daily cost of living, debt payments, housing, education, medical costs –consumer goods –productive activities, investments –financing of violent conflict Foreign exchange of great importance for the balance of payments, but it also increases inflation and import dependency Remittances

18. UNFPA/UNECE/NIDI Training programme on international migration, Geneva, 24-28/01/2005 Policy aspects: –Emigration countries have an interest in the continued involvement/commitment of migrants: return and repatriation policies, and restrictive admission policies weaken the basis for remittances –The uses of remittances are not necessarily in line with the goals of ODA –Functioning of transnational communities can be at odds with integration policies in immigration countries Remittances

19. UNFPA/UNECE/NIDI Training programme on international migration, Geneva, 24-28/01/2005 Effect of return on development: –skills, capacities, stage of life of migrants –social, economical and institutional support / context in country of return refugees: political climate of reconciliation National authorities tend to have limited interest for stimulating return of own citizens: –undermines the continuation of remittances –increases pressures on local labour markets return policies are mostly initiated by the immigration countries Return migration

20. UNFPA/UNECE/NIDI Training programme on international migration, Geneva, 24-28/01/2005 Managing or limiting migration flows: –labour migration –asylum migration –follow-up migration (marriage migration and family reunification) –trafficking and smuggling / ‘illegal’ migration Stimulating temporary migration: –return Stimulating integration of ‘permanent’ migrants Purpose of migration policy/management

21. UNFPA/UNECE/NIDI Training programme on international migration, Geneva, 24-28/01/2005 How to reconcile conflicting interests (immigration countries - emigration countries - individual migrants; ODA versus admission policies) Many different options and opportunities for policies, but migration is hard to ‘manage’ as it forms part of long-term development processes: in policy making too therefore long-term thinking is crucial Policy dilemmas

22. UNFPA/UNECE/NIDI Training programme on international migration, Geneva, 24-28/01/2005 2. Consequences of migration for countries of in-migration

23. UNFPA/UNECE/NIDI Training programme on international migration, Geneva, 24-28/01/2005 Type of consequences: Demographic Economic Social

24. UNFPA/UNECE/NIDI Training programme on international migration, Geneva, 24-28/01/2005 Demographic consequences Population growth: Net migration contributes considerably to population growth in many countries of destination. It delays the moment that populations in Europe and Japan will start to decline.

25. Net migration flows to European Union in 2000

26. UNFPA/UNECE/NIDI Training programme on international migration, Geneva, 24-28/01/2005 Population ageing: Migration helps to slow down the process of ageing in receiving countries. But it does not prevent ageing. –immigrants age too –the number of migrants is too small

27. UNFPA/UNECE/NIDI Training programme on international migration, Geneva, 24-28/01/2005 UN scenarios (2000) based on the 1998 population projections for 8 low fertility countries (France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Rep. Korea, Russian Federation, United Kingdom & USA) and 2 regions (EU and Europe) show: –1998 projections (medium): all would start to decline before 2050, except USA, and all would age rapidly –In the absence of migration this would happen sooner –To maintain population size, labour force size, or age structures, very high net immigration would be required

28. UNFPA/UNECE/NIDI Training programme on international migration, Geneva, 24-28/01/2005

29. Demographic situation in Eastern Europe, the Balkans, Turkey and Central Asia (EECA-20) is similar to the EU-25. For EECA as a whole, population decline is expected to set in by 2025, esp. most Balkan countries, RF and Ukraine.

30. UNFPA/UNECE/NIDI Training programme on international migration, Geneva, 24-28/01/2005 Economic consequences Economy --> migration –Potential migrants are attracted by economic prospects Migration --> economy –Does migration lead to displacement of native employees on the labour market and lower wages? –What are the consequences for public finances? References: UN, World Economic and Social Survey, 2004; Ederveen et al., 2004)

31. UNFPA/UNECE/NIDI Training programme on international migration, Geneva, 24-28/01/2005 Effects of immigration on the labour market Studies show effects vary by country, immigrant group and educational level Migration increases labour supply and economic output (“immigration surplus”) As a result of increased competition, wages have declined, but the impact is modest Little evidence that immigration would have an effect on unemployment levels

32. UNFPA/UNECE/NIDI Training programme on international migration, Geneva, 24-28/01/2005 Effects of immigration on public finances Can migration help soften the financial consequences of ageing? –On average, calculated over a lifetime, migrants contribute more than they cost (the costs during their youth having been borne by the country of origin) –but: unemployment differences affect this - positive in Spain, negative in Netherlands –most studies find a positive impact of immigration on public finance

33. UNFPA/UNECE/NIDI Training programme on international migration, Geneva, 24-28/01/2005 Policy challenge: –improving the economic integration of migrants: reducing unemployment risks factors influencing unemployment among immigrants, a.o.: –education –language skills –the organisation of the welfare state –discrimination