1. Labor Market Information Finding & Using Online Employment Tools November 5, 2015 Tim O’Neill Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Minnesota Dept. of Employment & Economic Development Labor Market Information Office http://mn.gov/deed/data/ Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development

2. Labor Market Information Office Each state produces employment and economic statistics in cooperation with U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics LMI includes employment statistics, unemployment rates, wages and salaries, job projections and more LMI is the foundation for informed, market-responsive planning

4. How is the Job Market Doing?

5. National Numbers - September Employment growth slows – US adds 142,000 jobs in September* – Growth lead by health care & social assistance, information, and professional & business services – Mining continues to lose jobs Unemployment steady at 5.1% Labor force participation rate at 62.4% Avg. hourly earnings at $25.09 *Job growth averaged 260,000/month in 2014, and 198,000/month in 2015 (through Aug.)

6. Minnesota Numbers - September Employment growth slows – MN sheds 5,700 jobs in September – 35,250 jobs over-the-year (1.2% growth) Unemployment edges down to 3.8% Labor force participation rate at 69.7% Avg. hourly earnings at $25.94 Happy Anniversary!* *MN has gained 235,200 jobs since the low of the Great Recession, in Sept. 2009. This averages out to 39,200 jobs gained per year, or 3,300 jobs gained per month. Average annual growth rate at 1.4%.

7. Labor Force Declining

8. Regional Unemployment Rates County September 2015 Unemployment Rate Anoka3.3% Carver2.8% Dakota3.0% Hennepin3.1% Ramsey3.3% Scott2.8% Washington2.9% Metro Area3.1% Minnesota3.2% Not Seasonally Adjusted

9. Unemployment Up-Close Source: Current Population Survey, Bureau of Labor Statistics

10. Unemployment Up-Close Source: Current Population Survey, Bureau of Labor Statistics

11. Local Area Unemployment Stats (LAUS) Description: Monthly estimates of labor force, employment and unemployment for state and local areas. Data source: LAUS is a federal-state cooperative program between the BLS and state agencies. Models use both current and historical data from the CPS, the CES program and the UI statistics program to provide estimates of employment and unemployment. What it provides: Helps state and local governments make planning and budgetary decision; determines needs for employment and training services. Data limitations: Not available for small cities, and data are revised monthly and benchmarked annually. http://mn.gov/deed/laus

12. More on Unemployment Employment Situation Report – www.bls.gov Geographic Profile of Employment and Unemployment – http://www.bls.gov/opub/gp/laugp.htm Disability Statistics, Cornell University – www.disabilitystatistics.org DEED: Alternative Measures of Unemployment – http://mn.gov/deed/data/current-econ-highlights American Community Survey – http://factfinder.census.gov

13. Industry Trends

14. Minnesota Over-the-Year Data are September 2014 to September 2015

15. Healthcare & Social Assistance 2000 – 2015

16. Healthcare’s Largest-Growing Jobs 2012 – 2022 Home Health Aides: 29.3% (10,131) Registered Nurses: 16.9% (9,477) LPNs: 18.6% (3,239) Nursing Assistants: 9.1% (2,742) Medical Assistants: 19.7% (1,693) Pharmacy Technicians: 13.8% (945) Radiologic Technologists: 20.7% (796) Physical Therapists: 22.6% (779) Medical & Clinical Laboratory Technicians: 23.4% (767) Nurse Practitioners: 26.1% (721) Source: DEED Employment Outlook

17. Construction 2000 – 2015

18. Construction’s Largest-Growing Jobs 2012 – 2022 Carpenters: 22.9% (4,491) Construction Laborers: 16.8% (1,862) Electricians: 16.0% (1,740) Plumbers & Pipefitters: 19.1% (1,520) Operating Engineers: 16.9% (1,408) Supervisors of Construction Workers: 17.7% (1,286) Painters, Construction & Maintenance: 18.0% (1,194) Cement Masons & Concrete Finishers: 30.7% (900) Brickmasons & Blockmasons: 31.9% (437) Sheet Metal Workers: 14.3% (345) Source: DEED Employment Outlook

19. Where do I find this cool info? CES! (Current Employment Statistics) Description: Monthly survey of nonfarm businesses for estimating industry employment, hours and earnings for the 50 states and 250 Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Data source: The CES program is a federal-state cooperative program between the BLS and state agencies. This program is the largest survey of its kind, consisting of of 400,000 businesses nationwide and 5,900 businesses in Minnesota. What it provides: A look at the health of the economy through industry employment numbers, earnings trends and other data. Data limitations: Not available for small, local areas, and data are revised monthly and benchmarked annually. http://mn.gov/deed/CES

20. And for local areas? QCEW! (Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages) Description: Quarterly census of employers for compiling employment and wage statistics. Data are available by industry, ownership type, states, regions, counties and minor civil divisions. Data Source: All establishments covered under the Unemployment Insurance (UI) program are required to report wage and employment statistics. What it provides: Industry employment and wage information at the state, regional, county and minor civil division levels. These data are used for state revenue forecasting, employment density studies, and economic planning and development. Data limitations: Six month time lag and some data confidentiality. http://mn.gov/deed/qcew

21. Job Vacancy Survey Description: A semi-annual survey of employers to estimate hiring demand and job vacancy characteristics by industry and occupation. Data Source: Information is gathered through the survey of a stratified sample of about 10,000 firms in 13 regions of Minnesota. Firms excluded include private households, personnel service industry establishments and businesses with no employees. What it provides: A measure of hiring demand for workers and an analysis of the characteristics of job vacancies, including wages and benefits, education and experience requirements, and the location of openings. Data limitations: Point-in-time survey. http://mn.gov/deed/jvs

22. MN Job Openings Expanding Source: DEED Job Vacancy Survey (JVS)

23. MN Vacancy Distribution

24. MN Vacancy Characteristics

25. MN Employment Outlook With the labor market fully recovered from the recent recession, current projections show a more balanced outlook through 2022 Job growth over the next decade will average 0.7% a year, a slower pace than previous projections – National projections at 1.0% a year The key macroeconomic assumptions driving the 2012-2022 national industry projections are: – Demographic changes drive demand for healthcare & related services – Labor force growth will slow below 0.5% annually (baby-boomers leaving) – GDP projected to increase at an annual rate of 2.6% – Economy will reach full-employment by 2022

26. MN Industry Outlook 2012 – 2022

27. MN Occupational Outlook 2012 – 2022

28. MN Educational Outlook 2012 – 2022 2012 Estimated Employment 2022 Projected Employment 2012-2022 Projected Change PercentNumericReplacementTotal Less than H.S. diploma 747,800813,6098.8%65,809222,270292,970 H.S. diploma or equivalent 1,117,3351,174,0645.1%56,729236,080307,890 Some college, no degree 47,32749,8505.3%2,52310,02012,540 Postsecondary non- degree award 171,689187,1869.0%15,49733,93049,830 Associate’s degree 121,079136,79913.0%15,72024,52040,780 Bachelor’s degree 518,637552,5056.5%33,868109,230144,620 Master’s degree 45,21250,57011.9%5,3589,73015,080 Doctoral degree 63,88369,3638.6%5,48012,95018,390 Other, not identified 82,43986,4544.9%4,01514,79019,520 Total, all occupations 2,915,4013,120,4007.0%204,999673,520901,620

29. Job Seeking Resources

30. Career Profile Offers a wide range of occupational information: – Wage information, including cost-of-living comparison – Current demand – Future openings and growth rate – Educational requirements, certifications, licenses – On the job tasks, working conditions, and abilities Links to MinnesotaWorks.net and WFC help mn.gov/deed/careers

31. Career Profile Useful for job seekers, career explorers, and employers Breakdown by region Data collected from numerous DEED LMI sources, as well as the U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics

32. Occupational Employment Stats GeographyEmployment25 th Percentile WageMedian Wage75 th Percentile Wage Metro Area1,691,650$13.02$20.49$32.76 Minnesota2,730,020$12.12$18.65$29.27 U.S.135,128,260$11.25$17.42$28.28 Top-Employing Occupational GroupsEmploymentMedian Wage Office & Admin. Support263,440$18.25 Sales and Related172,730$14.93 Food Prep. & Serving Related133,660$9.28 Business & Financial Operations124,780$31.78 Management118,720$51.80 Production116,450$17.19 Transp. & Material Moving93,740$16.64 Healthcare Practitioners88,570$34.08 According to DEED’s Cost of Living Calculator, the basic- needs budget for a typical family in the Metro is: $55,896/year This equates to an hourly wage of $17.92 for each adult worker* *The typical family includes 1 full-time and 1-part-time worker, with 1 child.

33. Cost of Living Calculator Basic needs budget for individuals and families living in Minnesota. One full-time worker: 2,080 hours The majority of households – 65% - are family households. 79% of family households have two parents, and the average number of hours worked/week is 33.9. Can be broken down by child care, food, healthcare, housing, transportation, other necessities, and taxes. mn.gov/deed/col

34. And for more on hiring demand? OID! (Occupations in Demand) Lists of currently available career opportunities in a local labor market as determined by local labor market data. Regional occupations are ranked by a Current Demand Indicator, which measures short-term demand for jobs. Data updated twice a year. http://mn.gov/deed/oid

35. Jobs in demand for the metro High School Diploma or less Postsecondary Award or Associate’s Degree Bachelor’s Degree or higher Customer Service Representatives ($37,261) Registered Nurses ($76,732) Software Developers, Applications ($91,972) General Office Clerks ($33,680) LPNs ($44,964) Computer Systems Analysts ($87,725) Social & Human Service Assistants ($31,289) Heavy & Tractor Trailer Truck Drivers ($44,979) Market Research Analysts ($66,384) Real Estate Sales Agents ($38,097) Nursing Assistants ($30,069) Accountants and Auditors ($65,640) Secretaries and Admin. Assistants ($40,126) Web Developers ($66,410) Occupational Therapists ($71,236) Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers ($44,190) Computer Network Support Specialists ($62,652) Management Analysts ($77,491) 298 Metro Area jobs are in relatively high demand – mn.gov/deed/oid

36. Keeping Skills in Mind - JobSTAT Help job seekers explore occupations that are a good match to their previous work experience. JobSTAT identifies where gaps exist, offers a career profile, training information, and provides links to job postings on MinnesotaWorks. http://mn.gov/deed/jobstat

37. Keeping Skills in Mind MySkillsMyFuture www.MySkillsMyFuture.org

38. Graduate Employment Outcomes

39. Who will use the tool? Prospective students, to set realistic expectations for employment and wages following graduation Parents and career counselors, to help prospective students plan their education Education program planners interested in aligning program offerings to market demand Policy makers interested in evaluating the state’s returns on investments in higher education

40. Five Key Aspects of Employment 1.EMPLOYABILITY (in-state employment rate) 2.FULLTIME AND YEAR-ROUND STATUS (job quality and job stability) 3.EARNINGS 4.TOP INDUSTRIES OF EMPLOYMENT 5.TOP REGIONS OF EMPLOYMENT

41. A GEO Analysis… Instructional Program Bachelors Degree Award Number of Bachelor Degree Graduates Annual Median Earnings of All Employed Graduates in 2 nd year after graduation Percent working full- time and year-round in 2nd Year Median Earnings of Full-time Employed in 2nd Year Well Aligned Engineering1,217$55,48969%$59,124 Construction trades25$53,67576%$55,472 Computer and information science647$51,99068%$56,277 Health profession2,577$50,02140%$59,646 Engineering technologies165$47,68868%$51,960 Business, management, and marketing6,272$38,66764%$45,289 Poorly Aligned Visual and performing arts1,562$17,83329%$31,039 Transportation and materials moving51$17,73135%$26,447 Communications technologies/technician21$17,629N/A* Area, ethnic, cultural, gender, and group studies 168$17,54028%$30,300 History443$16,51329%$34,154 Theology and religious vocations337$15,74130%$33,185

42. A Step Further…

43. What does this info tell us? If wage and employment rates are the outcome of interaction between supply and demand, they tell us a great deal about which fields of study are in demand and which are not Providing these data to young people selecting a major, and to incumbent workers looking to change careers, would allow them to better self- select into areas with better opportunities Data for all fields of study are on our website at: http://mn.gov/deed/geo http://mn.gov/deed/geo

44. Other Economic & Career Exploration Resources

45. Other LMI Sites… – U.S. Data -U.S. Census: www.census.govwww.census.gov -Bureau of Labor Statistics: www.bls.govwww.bls.gov – Minnesota Data -MN State Demographic Center: http://mn.gov/admin/demography/ http://mn.gov/admin/demography/ -Minnesota Compass: www.mncompass.orgwww.mncompass.org – Twin Cities -Metropolitan Council: http://metrocouncil.org/http://metrocouncil.org/ -Greater MSP: www.greatermsp.orgwww.greatermsp.org

46. U.S. Census Bureau U.S. Census Bureau’s FactFinder – Includes American Community Survey (ACS) dataAmerican Community Survey – Narrative Profiles: Reports for selected areas Narrative Profiles Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI) Quarterly Workforce Indicators OnTheMap tool: commute and labor sheds OnTheMap Census Flows Mapper County Business Patterns (CBP) County Business Patterns

47. An Example of U.S. Census Data Hennepin County 2013 - 2014 Population 16+ increased by 13,141 (1.4%) – 65-74 year age group the fastest-growing (6.5%) – Black/African Americans increased by 6.9% Asian population increased by 5.2% White & Hispanic/Latino populations increased by 1.0% – Those obtaining post-secondary education increased Some college or associate’s degree (+4,319; 2.3%) Bachelor’s degree or higher (+7,627; 2.3%) Unemployment decreased by 1.1 percentage points (went down esp. fast for teenagers) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey

48. Specialty Career Sites MyMnCareers, www.MyMnCareers.org – Helps working learners take the steps needed to pursue and advance in a career pathway. STEP AHEAD, www.ISEEK.org/exoffender – Helps job seekers with felony convictions and other criminal charges be successful in their job search. MnCareerPathways, www.MnCareerPathways.org – Helps Minnesota adult students create career and training plans that will prepare them for a fulfilling career.

49. LMI Publications  Minnesota Economic Trends  Quarterly magazine on economic topics  Subscriptions available free of charge or on-line  Minnesota Employment Review  Monthly magazine on economic data and regional trends  Includes Minnesota business development  Available exclusively on-line http://mn.gov/deed/trends http://mn.gov/deed/review

50. LMI Helpline LMI experts are available to answer your questions weekdays from 9 AM to 3 PM Telephone 651-259-7384, or toll free at 888-234-1114 Send questions by e-mail to deed.lmi@state.mn.us

51. Let me know how I can help Tim O’Neill Twin Cities Labor Market Analyst Phone: (651) 259-7401 Timothy.oneill@state.mn.us Department of Employment and Economic Development http://www.mn.gov/deed