1. SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY Making Activity-Based Travel Demand Models Play Nice With Trip Rates Elizabeth Sall, Daniel Wu, Billy Charlton TRB Planning Applications Conference – Reno, NV May 2011

2. SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY2 Objective Develop a lookup table for auto vehicle trip ends by land use square footage that accounts for accessibility.

3. SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY3 Possibilities ? SF Observed Data SF-CHAMP pow poof! Validated Uniqueness of SF “The Ds” and transit system Currently on the ground Future changes to “the Ds” and transit system Easy to get trip rates by specific Land Use Category meh

4. SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY4 Are they a worker? Are they a student? How many jobs? Are they part time? What is their income? How old are they? Do they have a car? Do they have a license? Do they have kids? Are they a woman? How many workers are in the household? How many cars per worker? What is their accessibility to all destinations from home considering the cars per worker in their household? What is their accessibility to work or school considering the cars per worker in their household? Trip Rates!?!?…but there’s so much that goes into determining if a trip is made!!!

5. SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY5 Can’t distinguish which job actually pulled that trip into the TAZ – all part of a size term. Different size terms for:  Trip purpose  Primary destinations versus intermediate stops By Land Use Category!?!?

6. SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY6 Multiple linear regression on model results:  Vehicle Trip Ends for zone z = B * Households + B * Cultural/Institutional Employees + B * Medical Employees + B * Office Employees + B * PDR Employees + B * Visitor/Hotel Employees + B * Retail Employees Segment regressions based on simple accessibility groupings. Reverse-Engineering the AB Model to ‘make it simple’

7. SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY7 Accessibility Variables Requirements: Encourage development consistent with San Francisco’s “transit first” policy Simple to calculate or look up on a map Account for wide variations in vehicle trip rates across the city

8. SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY8 Accessibility Variables Considered Transit Intensity (combined headways) Employment Density Household Density

9. SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY9 “Accessibility Zone” Map

10. SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY10 Final Auto Vehicle Trip Rates BASE/LOWMEDIUMHIGH HHLDS7.5-3.0-3.5 CIE7.3 -3.0 MED4.7 RET10.5 VIS7.9 PDR6.0 MIPS1.9 Accessibility Adjustments

11. SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY Questions? elizabeth@sfcta.org Special Thanks: Viktoriya Wise, Stephen Newhouse, Dan Wu & Rachel Hiatt

12. SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY AUTO TRIP MITIGATION FEE // MAPS & CORR ZONE 1: Within ½ mi of Rapid Transit* ZONE 2: Within ½ mi of Other Transit** ZONE 3: All Else ZONE 1: Within ¼ mi of Rapid Transit ZONE 2: Within ¼ mi of Other Transit ZONE 3: All Else ZONE 1: Within ½ mi of Rapid Transit ZONE 2: Within ¼ mi of Other Transit ZONE 3: All Else A B C * Rapid Transit includes BART and the “Rapid Network” as defined by MUNI (All rail plus major bus routes) ** Other Transit includes any other transit stop Scenarios

13. SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY AUTO TRIP MITIGATION FEE // MAPS & CORR ZONE 1: Within ½ mi of Rail (BART or MUNI) ZONE 2: Within ½ mi of Other Transit ZONE 3: All Else ZONE 1: Within ¼ mi of Rail ZONE 2: Within ¼ mi of Other Transit ZONE 3: All Else ZONE 1: Within ½ mi of Rail ZONE 2: Within ¼ mi of Other Transit ZONE 3: All Else E F G Scenarios

14. SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY14 Transit Intensity Calculation

15. SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY15 Thresholds Used HIGHLOW TRANSIT Combined Headway of all routes with stops within ¼ mi <=1 min Combined Headway of all routes with stops within ¼ mi >1 min EMPLOYMENT>= 50 jobs/acre< 50 jobs/acre

16. SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY

17. TRANSIT INTENSITY (Detail)

18. SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY EMPLOYMENT DENSITY (Detail)

19. SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY HOUSEHOLD DENSITY (Detail)

20. SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY ZONE MAP Combines transit intensity, employment density, and household density into eight zones.

21. SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY ZONE MAP (Detail)