1. CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status Canadian Report GODAE Ocean View Science Team June 2009 Fraser Davidson (1), Hal Ritchie (4,6) Greg Smith(1,4), Andry Ratsimandresy(1), Debbie Anne Power (1) Adam Lundrigan (1), Charles Hannah (2), Frederic Dupont (2), Dan Wright (2), Maud Guaracino (2), Denis Lefaivre (3), Pierre Pellerin(4), Mark Buehner (4), Lt. Darryl Williams (5) Keith Thompson (6) (1) DFO-Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Centre, St. John's, NL, Canada (2) DFO-Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, NS, Canada (3) DFO-Institute Maurice Lamontagne, Mont-Joli, QU, Canada (4) EC-Meteorological Research Division, Dorval, QU, Canada (5) National Defence, METOC, Halifax, NS, Canada (6) Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada

2. CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status Canadian Operational Network of Coupled Environmental PredicTion Systems CONCEPTS MOU among 3 Government Departments No $ Provides ability to obtain funding Short term (projects) Long term (budgeted development) Secretariat provided by Marty Taillefer DFO and Pierre Pellerin

3. CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status CONCEPTS: CORE PROJECTS Project 1: Core CMC Systems Installation Install common core ocean model configurations at Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) for collaborative projects, evaluations and coupling with GEM atmospheric model, coupled data assimilation, examine potential implementation for operational use. Project 2: Basin-to-Global Ocean Reanalyses Canada-Mercator Contribution to CONCEPTS Validate and improve the ocean component of the basin-global modelling and assimilation system being developed for use by CONCEPTS and Mercator. Project 3: Regional Ocean Prediction: C-NOOFS Canada-Newfoundland Operational Ocean Forecasting System Project 4: Sea Ice Modelling and Data Assimilation

4. CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status CONCEPTS: PROJECTS OF INTERESTS 1. Ocean Data assimilation, GOAPP (Keith Thompson) 2.Spaceborne Ocean Intelligence Network (Darryl Williams) 3.DRDC (A) Requirements and Initiatives (John Osler) 4. Coupled models for the Gulf of St. Lawrence (Lefaivre & Pellerin)

5. CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status NEMO Applications in Canada Global -- BIO, RPNE, Dalhousie, U Quebec Montreal North Atlantic -- BIO, Dalhousie North Pacific -- IOS, Royal Military College Arctic and CAA -- BIO-CIS-Mercator, U Alberta North-western Atlantic -- CNOOFS, Dalhousie, Memorial Gulf of St. Lawrence-Scotian Shelf-Gulf of Maine -- BIO, Dalhousie Gulf of St. Lawrence -- BIO, U Quebec Rimouski Great Lakes -- NWRI/RPNE, BIO

6. CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status CONCEPTS Project 1 & 2 Validation and analysis of the ¼-deg global NEMO-CONCEPTS* ocean model Francois Roy (1), Youyu Lu (2), Jean-Marc Belanger (3), Hal Ritchie (3), Greg Smith (4) 1- Canadian Meteorological Centre, Environment Canada 2- Ocean Sciences Division, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Fisheries and Oceans Canada 3- Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada 4- Biological and Physical Oceanography Section, Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Centre, Fisheries and Oceans Canada A partnership of EC, DFO, DND, GOAPP and MERCATOR-OCEAN

7. CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status Two global ocean configurations for core project 1: ¼-deg; 1-deg Status: ¼-deg tested for 6-yr spin-up; 10-day forecast; 1-yr simulation 1-deg model tested for multi-decade simulations; 1-deg model being coupled to 100km GEM; Validation and process studies

8. CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status CMC global ¼ deg 1 year model run NEMO3-LIM2 - ¼ deg ORCA025 - 50 vertical levels (1 m surface layer) Atmospheric forcing from global GEM at 35 km resolution (U a,V a,T a,H a,SW,LW) CORE bulk formulas from Large and Yeager (2004) Initial conditions: MERCATOR-OCEAN PSY 3V2 (T,S,U,V, April 18, 2007) SSS restoring to yearly climatology + No SST restoring 1 Year simulation 1 (S3): 3-hourly forcing 1 Year simulation 2 (S24): 24h-av. forcing

9. CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status S3 S3 – S24 1 Year simulation: sensitivity to atmospheric forcing SSH yearly standard deviation (using 20 outputs per day, close to hourly) 3 hour wind forcing - 24 hour wind forcing

10. CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status Yearly simulations: sensitivity to atmospheric forcing Yearly averaged surface circulation in ms -1 (first 5 m) S3 S3 – S24

11. CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status Wind energy input to oceanic near inertial motions: S3 Initial estimates based for April 18-30, 2007 High energy flux associated with synoptic storms Further analyses to reveal seasonal cycle Comparison to be made with semi-analytic solution

12. CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status Theme 1 and 2: Conclusion NEMO3-LIM2 with GEM forcing produces a realistic seasonal cycle without major SST drift A non-persistent warm bias occurs during the summers of the north and south hemispheres (slightly reduced with 3-hourly forcing) Significant variability in SST is added with 3-hourly forcing (diurnal cycle) SSH variability is increased in coastal areas with 3-hourly forcing and the distribution of meso-scale eddies is changed

13. CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status Future work Verification with in situ and satellite derived data Work to explain the summer warm bias More global diagnostics Sensitivity tests to flux parameterization (CORE, GEM physics, …) and TKE parameters Adding MERCATOR data assimilation system Pseudo-operational 10 day forecasts using GEM forcing Two-way coupling of NEMO with GEM referenced to PSY3V2

14. CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status 1º Global Ocean Model & Decadal Simulation Model: Horizontal: Global tri-polar grids; Nominal resolution 1° in lat/long; Meridional refinement in tropics; Vertical: 46 vertical NEMO 2.3 GOAPP Simulations: 10-yr spinup with CORE Normal Year forcing CONTROL: CORE forcing 1958-2004 HEAT: wind stress set to Normal Year WIND: buoyancy forcing set to Normal Year MJO: wind stress = Normal Year + MJO

15. Sea-Level Trend 1993-2004 (m/yr) Model ¼ o Obs

16. 1/4º model Forcing sensitivity Wind Heat

17. 1/4º model Inter-Annual Sea-Level RMS 1993-2004 (m) Model Obs

18. 1/4º model Forcing sensitivity Wind Heat

19. Summary Global 1 º model able to reproduce large-scale SSH changes during altimeter era Wind stress changes are primary cause of SSH trend and RMS at low and mid latitudes; impacts of buoyancy forcing mainly show at high latitudes 1 º NEMO is being coupled to 100 km GEM; expected to be a good tool for study/prediction of intra- seasonal/seasonal variations

20. CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status C-NOOFS

21. C-NOOFS system V0 MERCATOR Global Output Initial State C-NOOFS Fixed BC’s Weekly www.c-noofs.gc.ca NEMO v2.3 T,S,U,V,W Data products / plotting Every 24 hr Webpage CMC WIND

22. C-NOOFS system V1 MERCATOR Global Output RESTART FILE Time varying BC’s Weekly www.c-noofs.gc.ca NEMO LIM2* BULK T,S,U,V,W, ice, SSH Data products / plotting OceanViewOf The day CMC WIND CMC T,Q, QSW,QLW, precip Validation Monitoring NEMO LIM2* BULK 1/12 th1/4 Obser vations Validation M vs M M vs O MonitoringDiagnostics T,S,U,V,W, ice, SSH

23. CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status Effects of resolution on Model and Observation CTD Sea Island line 2008 12 19 1/4 1/12 ADCP (hr) Observations Bonavista Bay line Observations Bonavista Bay line 2004 07 CTD CTD stations~20 km

24. CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status C-NOOFS Overview Configuration name Operational since Resolu tion Initial Condition Boundary Condition Wind Forcing Other forcing fields Coupled ice model NWA025-v0Sept. 2008¼°Daily mean MERCATOR- PSY3V2 forecast Fixed to I.C.GEMClimatologyNone NWA12-v0Dec. 2008 – Jan. 2009 1/12°Daily mean MERCATOR- PSY3V2 forecast Fixed to I.C.GEMClimatologyNone NWA025-v1May 2009¼°MERCATOR- PSY3V2 analysis Daily mean MERCATOR- PSY3V2 forecasts GEM LIM2 NWA12-v1July. 20091/12°MERCATOR- PSY2V1 analysis Daily mean MERCATOR- PSY3V2 forecasts GEM LIM2 NWA025-v2Apr. 2010¼°CNOOFS assimilation system (based on SAM2) CMC global ocean forecasts using SAM2 GEM Not yet decided (LIM2, LIM3, CICE)

25. CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status Observations to be assimilated V2 Sea level anomalies : –AVISO SSALTO/DUACS Jason (2cm), ENVISAT and GFO (3.5cm) Near-coast representivity error Mean dynamic topography : – Rio et al., 2005 (~5cm rms error) Sea surface temperature : –NCEP SST RTG (~0.7C) In situ profile T and S data : –E.g. Argo, XBT, TAO, CTD, … –CORIOLIS (Brest) –Quality Controlled by CLS (Toulouse)

26. CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status Forecast Viewer Open access to archive of static images of SSH and 3D T,S and currents http://www.c-noofs.gc.ca/viewer/

27. CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status CNOOFS Dynamic Quick-view Webpage www.c-noofs.gc.ca:8080/ncWMS/godiva2.html Uses Godiva2 viewer (from RESC) Uses OpenLayers to quickly and easily visualize data User-defined options for colour scale and animations Capability to create overlays in kmz format for use in geobrowsers (e.g. GoogleEarth)

28. CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status C-NOOFS Monitoring/Validation System Evaluation against: –AVISO satellite altimetry (SSH) –CMC Sea surface temperature analyses –CMC sea ice concentration analyses –Argo and other in situ data (coming soon…) For each data type: –maps of differences –RMS error versus forecast lead time –Mean error versus forecast lead time

29. CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status Evaluation NWA 025 V1 against AVISO SSH for May 13, 2009 1-day lead time3-day lead time 10-day lead time6-day lead time RMS difference Mean difference

30. CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status 1-day lead time3-day lead time 10-day lead time 6-day lead time RMS difference Mean difference Evaluation NWA 025 V1 against CMC SST for May 13, 2009 PSY3 V1 V0 PSY3

31. CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status Future developments and plans C-NOOFS 1-2 Implementation of NWA12-v1 to be done this summer Optimization of SAM2v1 assimilation system for Northwest Atlantic: –Ability to deal with tides –High-resolution SST track data –Improvement of error modes for Labrador Sea –Assimilation of seal and other additional in situ data sources –Sea ice assimilation –Produce analyses daily

32. CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status Future developments and plans C-NOOFS 2-2 Model improvements: –Update to NEMOv3.2 –Add tides ( variable volume ) –Upgrade ice model ( LIM2-EVP, LIM3 or CICE ) –Optimization of ocean and ice physics Detailed validation studies, e.g.: –Iceberg tracking –Drifters –Argo, seals, … All in situ data we can put our hands on! Observation quality control

33. CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status Sea-Ice Data Assimilation Project Project Goal: to develop an automated ice analysis system for: Canadian Ice Service (CIS): ice concentration, thickness/type distribution, pressure, strength and edge, deformed ice at ~1-2 km resolution NWP: ice concentration, thickness, albedo, surface emissivity at ~5 km resolution Benefit from experience with variational and ensemble-based assimilation for NWP: use variational approach: incremental 3D-FGAT (first guess at appropriate time) Developed initial prototype analysis system using CIS ice-ocean model for Canadian east-coast  plan to port system to other models/regions: Canadian Arctic archipelago region (IPY project, Polar-GEM) Gulf of St. Lawrence (coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere model developed at RPN/IML)

34. Experiments with east coast coupled ice- ocean model Goal: evaluate 3D-Var approach relative to nudging approach as currently used at CIS Configuration: –Assimilate partial concentration of 24 ice thickness categories from CIS daily ice charts –Tests with additionally assimilating CIS RadarSAT image analyses –Experimental period: 5 Dec 2006 - 30 Jun 2007 Forecast verification in terms of total concentration and effective ice thickness (forecast minus observation) –Only where the 1970-2000 weekly sea ice climatology indicates a non-zero probability of ice

35. Canadian east coast model (CIOM) Multicategory sea-ice model coupled to the Princeton ocean model (Yao et al., JGR 2000). Viscous plastic sea-ice rheology (Hibler, JGR 1979). GEM model atmospheric forcing every 3 hours. Grid resolution: 1/5º longitude x 1/6º latitude, 16 sigma levels. Originially developed by Charles Tang at BIO 48-h forecast

36. East coast 3D-Var experiments: Example Background Estimate (24h forecast) Observations (CIS Daily Ice Chart) Analysis (initialize next forecast)

37. Total ice concentration error StdDev } large improvement vs. persistence } small differences among data assimilation experiments

38. ARTIC MODEL March Sea-ice velocity for the last year of a 10 year run 1º model with OMIP forcing The model consistently overestimates ice velocities which influences the sea ice distribution. The reasons for the overestimations are not yet clear.

39. Future developments: Usage of “nesting” approach NEMO’s AGRIF allows 2-way nesting Potentially useful for CAA, e.g., 1º global + 1/4º CAA 1/2º Arctic + 1/8º CAA (2-3 km) BIO-RPN-CIS collaboration in planning Should be coordinated with CICE & I-DA developments

40. CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status So Where Are We Going? GEM / NEMO Global Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Ice Forecasting System Regional Eastern Canada Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Ice Forecasting System –1 way nest with MERCATOR –10 day forecasting Ice Service –Agrif zoom Research Direction Downscaling Ocean Only Vs Coupled Ice Assimilation vs Altimetry Assimilation

41. CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status GODAE Future International group helps focus national research & development Opportunity for synergies Much needed collaboration –Through Working Groups