2. 1998 Post-Soviet Central Asia 2000 A Personal Experience Daene McKinney

3. Source: CIA World Fact Book, 2006 http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factbook/index.html Some Statistics Central Asia

4. Aral Sea Basin Syr Darya Water Balance Inflow to sea ~ 60 km³ Rivers ~ 50 km³ Groundwater ~ 5 km³ Precipitation ~ 5 km³ Evaporation ~ 60 km³ Available to use ~ 55 km³ in the basin in the basin Surface Water Availability Average Year Amu Darya78 km³ Syr Darya 37 km³ Total 115 km³

5. Not much change over 100 years, but then … ARAL SEA

6. Aral Sea 1989 - 2005

7. The Shrinking Aral Sea

8. Aral Sea Crisis  12 x maximum permitted DDT  3/4 of people suffer from illness  70 % of fishermen are pre-cancerous  5 x death rate of former Soviet republics  … the environmental costs are so high that they go beyond the economic capacity of the newly independent republics in Central Asia. - The World Bank

9. Recent Water Balance E E P P Inflow Northern Aral Sea Southern Aral Sea Syr Darya Amu Darya Will it dry up completely? Why or why not?

10. Aral Sea Basin States: Some Statistics Does this allocation seem fair to you? Why or why not?

11. Aral Sea Basin Flows (1989 – 2000) Can irrigated agriculture be sustained while minimizing environmental impacts? Water used in irrigation

12. Finding the Aral Sea

13. Finding the Aral Sea - 2

14. The Boats

15. Can you say “Gydro-uzel”?

16. Kazakhstan

17. Almaty (where we lived)

20. Astana - Ice City

21. Syr Darya Basin Transboundary Water Resources: Upstream – Kyrgyzstan Water for electricity (heating) needed in winter Downstream – Uzbekistan Water for irrigation needed in summer Who should get the water? When? How can these needs be balanced?

22. Syr Darya Basin Water Coal Natural Gas Ag Prod. Keep Warm! Water

23. Kyrgyzstan

24. Kyrgyz Fuel Availability USSR Breakup

25. Toktogul Reservoir

26. Toktogul Reservoir 1988- 2000

27. Some Kyrgyz Sights

28. A computer lab in a Kyrgyz School Bazarbai Mambetov

29. Central Asia Water & Energy Round Table USAID supported Water and energy representatives of Kyrgyzstran, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan Created by Governments to Develop treaty on Syr Dayra Develop country positions on issues Serve interests of all countries equally Identify directions agreeable to all countries Obtain advocacy for activities within each country Bring work to attention of Presidents

30. Tajikistan

34. Turkmenistan

38. Uzbekistan

42. Amirkhan Kenshimov

46. The Future

47. Any Questions? No cameras allowed! KGB museum, Moscow, June 2000