1. TROPOSPHERIC CO MODELING USING ASSIMILATED METEOROLOGY Prasad Kasibhatla & Avelino Arellano (Duke University) Louis Giglio (SSAI) Jim Randerson and Seth Olsen (CalTech) Guido van der Werf (University of Amsterdam) June 2, 2003 Support NASA/EOS IDS Program North Carolina Supercomputing Center

2. ACTIVITIES Inverse modeling of CO using CMDL surface measurements (Avelino Arellano, Prasad Kasibhatla) Development of satellite-derived biomass-burning products (Louis Giglio, Guido van der Werf, Jim Randerson) Interannual variations of biomass burning emissions (Seth Olsen, Guido van der Werf, Avelino Arellano, Prasad Kasibhatla, Jim Randerson) Inverse modeling of CO using MOPITT CO measurements (Avelino Arellano, Prasad Kasibhatla)

3. ALT 82N, 63W BMW 32N, 65W MID 28N, 177W RPB 13N, 59W ASC 8S, 14W SMO 14S, 174W CGO 41S, 145E SPO 90S CO INVERSE MODELING CO offers a window into the levels of anthropogenic activities Can patterns in atmospheric CO be used to constrain CO sources? Source: NCAR MOPITT GROUP

4. INVERSE MODELING METHODOLOGY Start with a priori spatial and temporal patterns of CO sources Use GEOS-CHEM (GEOS DAS driven) with linearized chemistry (i.e. prescribed OH) in forward mode to calculate spatial and temporal patterns of CO concentrations from discrete source categories Use calculated and measured CO concentrations, and estimated model/obs error statistics to calculate scaling factors for each CO source category using a Bayesian inversion methodology Repeat for 2000 using GEOS-3 DAS and compare to results from 1994 1994 (GEOS-1 DAS)

5. SOURCE CATEGORIES Fossil-fuel and biofuel use FF/BF-NA; FF/BF-EU; FF/BF-AS; FF/BF-RW Biomass burning & forest fires BB-NA/EU; BB-AS; BB-AF; BB-LA; BB-OC Oxidation of isoprene ISOP Oxidation of monoterpenes TERP CO from methane oxidation Presubtracted with yield of 0.95

6. Biomass burning Direct tropical emissions from deforest. & sav. burning from EDGAR 2 ‘Corrected’ direct emissions from ag. waste field burning from EDGAR 2 Direct emissions from extratropical forest fires from Cooke and Wilson (1996) estimates of area burnt Scaled to account for CO from NMVOC Timing of trop. & sub-trop. emissions from Galanter et al. (2000); HNH timing from Canadian fire climatology statistics Fossil-fuel/Biofuel use Direct emissions from EDGAR 2 Scaled to account for CO from NMVOC NMVOC emissions from EDGAR 2 CO yield of 0.6 C/C (Altshuler, 1991) Other sources Isop. oxidation - Guenther et al. (1995) emissions with NO x -dep yield from Miyoshi et al. (1994) Monoterp. oxidation - Guenther et al. (1995) emissions with yield from Hatakeyama et al. (1991) CH 4 oxidation with yield of 0.95 presubtracted from observations a priori CO SOURCES FF/BF (g CO m -2 y -1 ) BB (g CO m -2 y -1 ) ISOP (g CO m -2 y -1 ) TERP (g CO m -2 y -1 )

7. INVERSION RESULTS USING CMDL SURFACE MEASUREMENTS

8. ’94 obs ’94 a priori ’94 a posteriori ’00 obs ’00 a priori ’00 a posteriori ASC 8S, 14W INVERSION RESULTS Observed and Modeled Monthly-Mean CO in the south Atlantic

9. GEOS-CHEM RESULTS a priori surface CO from BB-AF AUG 1994 BB-AF AUG 2000 BB-AF AUG 2000-1994 BB-AF Differences in transport to the south Atlantic

10. ’94 obs ’94 a priori ’94 a posteriori ’00 obs ’00 a priori ’00 a posteriori 200 150 100 50 0 200 150 100 50 0 CO – CO from CH 4 oxidn. (ppbv) INVERSION RESULTS Observed and Modeled Monthly-Mean CO at high N. Lat. ALT 82N, 63W ZEP 79N, 12E BRW 71N, 157W ICE 63N, 20W CBA 55N, 163W SHM 53N, 174E

11. 12 51020 30405060 12 51020 30405060 -50-20 -10-50 5102050 AUG 1994 BB-NA/EU AUG 2000 BB-NA/EU AUG 2000-1994 BB-NA/EU Greater poleward transport of emissions in 2000 GEOS-CHEM RESULTS a priori surface CO from BB-NA/EU

12. Heald et al., 2003 OTHER GEOS-CHEM RESULTS

13. INVERSION RESULTS USING CMDL SURFACE MEASUREMENTS Need for consistent multi-year met. fields with biases well-characterized Need for ‘accurate’ source patterns

14. VIRS ACTIVE-FIRE PRODUCT Louis Giglio TRMM satellite: low-inclination (38S-38N) orbit Observations over entire diurnal cycle during month Raw fire counts from mid and thermal IR channels Gridded statistical summary product 0.5 o spatial resolution; monthly temporal resolution Corrected (account for variable coverage, multiple fire observations due to repeated overpasses, and variable cloud cover) fire counts Multiple-data layers including predominant land-cover class Continuous archive since January 1998 http://daac.gsfc.nasa.gov/CAMPAIGN_DOCS/hydrology/TRMM_VIRS_Fire.shtml (Giglio et al., Int. J. Rem. Sens., in press)

15. VIRS ACTIVE-FIRE PRODUCT fire counts mean cloud fraction Predominant fire-pixel land type

16. VIRS Monthly Active Fire Product (Giglio/Kendall) MODIS Burned Area Estimates (Giglio) Other Burned Area Estimates Calibration (van der Werf/Giglio) Monthly Burned Area Estimates (van der Werf/Giglio) CASA Fuel Load (van der Werf et al.) Monthly Pyrogenic CO Estimates Emission Factors (Andreae et al.) Ancillary Data VIRS ACTIVE-FIRE PRODUCT Eric Van der Werf and Louis Giglio

17. VIRS FIRE EMISSIONS PRODUCT % area burned CASA biogeochemical model calibration CO 2 emissions (van der Werf et al., Global Change Biology, 2003

18. Need for consistent multi-year met. fields INTERANNUAL VARIATIONS OF BIOMASS-BURNING EMISSION

19. CO INVERSE MODELING USING USING MOPITT MEASUREMENTS

20. 10 18 molecules cm -2 MOPITT RETRIEVAL OF COLUMN CO 2000

21. 10 18 molecules cm -2 MOPITT RETRIEVAL OF COLUMN CO FROM MODEL 2000

22. RATIO MODEL/MOPITT Model and measurement biases? Availability of updated OH fields

23. ASC EIC CGO obs K94 bb new BB SURFACE CO IN SH SMO