1. Saying What We, As Meteorologists, Really Mean A Winter Storm Case Study And More H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, DMS How The Weatherworks, Naples, FL 10/18/15(NWA – 40th Conference - Broadcast Meteorology Program)1

2. 10/18/15(NWA – 40th Conference - Broadcast Meteorology Program)2

3. 10/18/15(NWA – 40th Conference - Broadcast Meteorology Program)3

4. 10/18/15(NWA – 40th Conference - Broadcast Meteorology Program)4

5. 10/18/15(NWA – 40th Conference - Broadcast Meteorology Program)5

6. 10/18/15(NWA – 40th Conference - Broadcast Meteorology Program)6 And this doesn’t even begin to address: -- how overcast cirrostratus is called FAIR to the public and -- how some news reporters and anchors treat weather science. Consider Savannah Guthrie on the TODAY Show (Oct. 16. 2015), discussing the flash flooding that occurred in southern California a day earlier. “…the rains came out of nowhere…” This is yet another “struck without warning ” or “worst storm ever ” event.

7. 10/18/15(NWA – 40th Conference - Broadcast Meteorology Program)7

8. 10/18/15(NWA – 40th Conference - Broadcast Meteorology Program)8

9. 10/18/15(NWA – 40th Conference - Broadcast Meteorology Program)9

10. 10/18/15(NWA – 40th Conference - Broadcast Meteorology Program)10

11. 10/18/15(NWA – 40th Conference - Broadcast Meteorology Program)11

12. 10/18/15(NWA – 40th Conference - Broadcast Meteorology Program)12

13. 10/18/15(NWA – 40th Conference - Broadcast Meteorology Program)13

14. 10/18/15(NWA – 40th Conference - Broadcast Meteorology Program)14

15. 10/18/15(NWA – 40th Conference - Broadcast Meteorology Program)15

16. 10/18/15(NWA – 40th Conference - Broadcast Meteorology Program)16 The new first law of meteorology: The precipitation has to end somewhere!

17. 10/18/15(NWA – 40th Conference - Broadcast Meteorology Program)17

18. 10/18/15(NWA – 40th Conference - Broadcast Meteorology Program)18

19. 10/18/15(NWA – 40th Conference - Broadcast Meteorology Program)19

20. 10/18/15(NWA – 40th Conference - Broadcast Meteorology Program)20

21. 10/18/15(NWA – 40th Conference - Broadcast Meteorology Program)21 Severe Weather --------- 25 mile rule Hurricanes --------- “Cone of Uncertainty” Winter Storms --------- Probabilities

22. 10/18/15(NWA – 40th Conference - Broadcast Meteorology Program)22 Severe Weather --------- 25-mile rule Hurricanes --------- “Cone of Uncertainty” Winter Storms --------- Probabilities WHY NOT a “25-mile” or “50-mile” rule for winter storms?

23. 10/18/15(NWA – 40th Conference - Broadcast Meteorology Program)23 Severe Weather --------- 25-mile rule Hurricanes --------- “Cone of Uncertainty” Winter Storms --------- Probabilities WHY NOT a statement or headline about a “25-mile” +/- rule?

24. 10/18/15(NWA – 40th Conference - Broadcast Meteorology Program)24 Severe Weather --------- 25 mile rule Hurricanes --------- “Cone of Uncertainty” Winter Storms --------- Probabilities WHY NOT a statement such as, “a very large snowfall gradient is expected on the west side of the storm. While current forecasts call for 15 to 20 inches of snow, amounts could be…

25. 10/18/15(NWA – 40th Conference - Broadcast Meteorology Program)25 Compare what we, as meteorologists, do compared to the current educational system. In education, tests drive learning to the point that learning isn’t happening in many places. In meteorology, will verification drive forecasts to the point that information given to the public isn’t informative?

26. 10/18/15(NWA – 40th Conference - Broadcast Meteorology Program)26 Stay tuned….details at 6, 10 and 11, after I continue work on this topic and discuss with broadcasters, NWS forecasters and others at NWS.

27. Saying What We, As Meteorologists, Really Mean A Winter Storm Case Study And More H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, DMS How The Weatherworks, Naples, FL 10/18/15(NWA – 40th Conference - Broadcast Meteorology Program)27