1. The Kyoto Protocol’s Flexibility Mechanisms

2. Major Issues in Implementing Flex Mechs Supplementarity Additionality – Baselines – Additionality – Leakage Breadth and Equity

3. Additionality 3 main issues – Baselines – Proving additionality – Dealing with leakage

4. Additionality 3 main issues – Baselines Easy where you already have an existing ongoing project But what about if there’s a new proposal? What if the existing facility is going to shut down anyway?

5. Additionality 3 main issues – Proving additionality Need to show that the emissions reductions would not have occurred without the JI project E.g., if a company is planning to close a coal plant and replace it with a wind farm, then the JI and CDM projects are not “additional” But if the funding for the projects will come only from JI/CDM, then the projects are additional

6. Additionality 3 main issues – Dealing with leakage Some projects may actually increase emissions somewhere else – or at least not remove as many emissions as thought E.g., if solar ovens replace wood burning for fuel, and thus reduce deforestation, this may actually increase wood availability for another village to burn Increased efficiency can sometimes = increased consumption

7. Specific Problems with CDM Allowable projects – No reduced deforestation – Must reduce emissions, not just develop renewable energy Inequitable distribution – China and India Technology transfer Sustainable development?

8. Specific Problems with CDM: Human-Made Gases

9. Specific Problems with CDM: Human-Made Gases (before 2008)

10. Specific Problems with CDM: After 2008

11. CDM Projects

13. Hydro Projects: Are They Additional?

14. Inequity in Distribution

15. Inequity: Projects and GWPs

16. CDM today Active area of project development and investment Has become critical form of development support Questions for future: – Limitations on distribution? – Other mechanisms for least developed countries?

17. Post-Kyoto Commitment period = 2008-2012 What happens next?

18. Post-Kyoto Commitment period = 2008-2012 – What happens next? Goal? UNFCCC – Stabilization of GHG concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. But how?

19. Post-Kyoto Bali Action Plan – Major issues Developed countries will increase commitments – but by how much? Developing countries must implement “nationally appropriate mitigation actions” – but what are they, and who decides, and how to measure? How to get U.S. and China to commit?

20. Post-Kyoto Bargaining positions: – EU: 20% reductions by 2020 if no post-KP; 30% if there is – U.S. and major emitters process Includes major emitting developing countries Not clear what the goals should be or if they would be binding Each country picks own goal and strategy Unclear how parties could be accountable

21. Post-Kyoto Bargaining positions: – G8 (major industrial countries) Commit to take strong action Must maintain common but differentiated responsibility – Developed countries must act – BUT also need developing country participation Must improve technology transfer Market mechanisms (i.e., emissions trading) are important Include reduced emissions from deforestation Adaptation and energy efficiency

22. Post-Kyoto Bargaining positions: – Developing countries Major responsibility rests with developed countries – 72% of emissions 1750-1990 Sustainable development and technology transfer are of highest importance – Developed countries must support Developed countries must pay for and help perform adaptation

23. Post-Kyoto: Bali Bali Action Plan – Need a shared vision for long-term cooperative action with long-term global goal for emissions reductions – Enhanced national/international action on mitigation – Enhanced adaptation – Enhanced technology transfer and development – Enhanced funding for developing countries

24. Post-Kyoto: Bali Bali Action Plan – Enhanced national/international action on mitigation Developed countries: QELROs (i.e., Kyoto Protocol assigned amounts) + measurable, reportable, and verifiable nationally appropriate mitigation commitments Developing: Nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs) Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) Sectoral approaches/ sector-specific actions

25. Post-Kyoto: Bali Bali Action Plan – Parties agreed to reach new post-Kyoto agreement by 2009, when the parties met in Copenhagen

26. Post-Kyoto: Copenhagen Copenhagen Accord – Leading up to the meeting – developing country arguments: Developed countries must “take the lead” NAMAs must be non-binding – U.S. argument: No China/India, no U.S.

27. Post-Kyoto: Copenhagen Accord Agreements – Stabilize concentrations at a level that will prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system Increase should be below 2 degrees Celsius – Agree that the countries need deep cuts in global emissions – and that emissions must peak as soon as possible i.e., emissions must stop increasing

28. Post-Kyoto: Copenhagen Accord Agree to increased action on adaptation, especially in least developed countries, small islands, and Africa

29. Post-Kyoto: Copenhagen Accord Emissions limitations – Annex-I Parties: economy wide targets by 2020 – to be submitted later – Non-Annex I Parties: NAMAs – to be submitted later REDD More money - $30 billion 2010-2012/ $100 billion per year by 2020 Technology mechanism Assess Accord by 2015

30. Post-Kyoto: Copenhagen Accord Examples of Annex I commitments – Australia – reduce emissions by up to 25% below 2000 baseline if reach agreement/ 5% if not – EU – 20% if no post-KP; 30% if post-KP agreement – Japan – 25% if all major economies participate – U.S. – 17% below 2005 baseline

31. Post-Kyoto: Copenhagen Accord Examples of non-Annex I commitments – Brazil – reduced deforestation; increase biofuels, increase alternative energy – China – lower emissions per GDP (carbon intensity) by 40-45% – India – reduce intensity by 20-25% – S. Africa – 34% reduction based on business as usual

32. Post-Kyoto: After Copenhagen Meetings in Cancun, Mexico, and Durban, South Africa – Still unclear what will happen – Seems like the Kyoto Protocol will be “extended,” but it is unclear how or what the targets and timetables will look like