1. May 11, 2015 DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY FOR THE WARREN TOWNSHIP SCHOOLS

2.  Provide demographic services for school districts in the New York-New Jersey metropolitan area.  Performed demographic studies for approximately 100 school districts in NY & NJ.  Demographic consultant for the NYC Public Schools since 2006. STATISTICAL FORECASTING

3.  Executive Director  Doctorate from Rutgers University Graduate School of Education in Educational Statistics and Measurement  Numerous publications on school demography and presentations nationally  Testified as an expert witness in school demography in several Administrative Law court hearings. RICHARD S. GRIP ED.D.

4.  Project grade-by-grade enrollments from 2015-16 through 2019-20  Analyze district historical enrollments, birth and fertility rates, community population trends, and age structure  Impact of new developments on enrollment PURPOSE OF THE STUDY

5. WARREN TOWNSHIP HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED POPULATIONS 1940-2040

6.  80.9% White (86.3% White in 2000), 15.1% Asian, 5.4% Hispanic  27.8% of population is under 18  Median age = 43.8 years (NJ=39.0)  19% of population is foreign-born (NJ=21%). India is largest source, representing 26% of foreign-born population. China was largest source in 2000.  Bachelor’s Degree or Higher = 62.8%  Median family income = $167,750  5,258 housing units, of which 95% are 1-unit homes (attached or detached)  Nearly 9% of housing units are renter-occupied.  Median value of owner-occupied unit = $669K WARREN TOWNSHIP DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE

7. SCHOOL LOCATIONS

8.  District’s October 2014 enrollment was 1,839.  Enrollment has declined for 5 consecutive years.  Loss of 432 students (-19.0%) since 2005-06.  Cohort-Survival Ratio Method (CSR) was used to project enrollments five years into the future. HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT TRENDS

9. HISTORICAL ENROLLMENTS 2005-06 TO 2014-15

10. HISTORICAL ENROLLMENTS BY LEVEL

11.  Ratios are calculated for each grade progression. (Ex. 100 1 st graders in 2013-14 become 95 2 nd graders in 2014-15 = 0.95)  Survival ratios were computed for ten historical years. Eight of 9 average ratios were above 1.000.  Averages were then computed and used to project future enrollments. ENROLLMENT PROJECTION METHOD COHORT SURVIVAL RATIO

12.  Negative kindergarten replacement (KR) has occurred for past 9 years, ranging from 26-129 students per year.  Average loss of 113 students in last 4 years.  Negative KR- Number of graduating 8 th grade students is greater than the number of kindergarten students replacing them in the next year.  Negative KR was 114 students in 2014-15, as 258 8 th graders graduated in 2013-14 and were replaced by 144 kindergarten students in 2014- 15. KINDERGARTEN REPLACEMENT

13. HISTORICAL KINDERGARTEN REPLACEMENT

14. TOTAL ENROLLMENT CHANGE VS. KINDERGARTEN REPLACEMENT

15.  Births in Warren have been declining: 191 in 2002, 83 in 2011.  Births are used to project kindergarten students 5 years later.  Fertility rates are similar to those in Somerset County and New Jersey. BIRTHS

16. BIRTH RATES AND BIRTH-TO- KINDERGARTEN SURVIVAL RATIOS Birth Year Warren Twp. Number of Births Kindergarten Students Five Years Later Birth-to-Kindergarten Survival Ratio 20001622261.3951 20011732141.2370 20021911991.0419 20031702021.1882 20041482041.3784 20051572011.2803 20061131611.4248 20071411551.0993 20081001441.4400 20091001441.4400 201085N/A 201183N/A

17. HISTORICAL BIRTHS IN WARREN TOWNSHIP 2000-2011

18. AGE PYRAMID WARREN TOWNSHIP 2000

19. AGE PYRAMID WARREN TOWNSHIP 2010

20. AGE PYRAMID NEW JERSEY 2010

21.  75 new housing units (35 condos, 40 SF)  Largest is redevelopment of former textile mill on Dubois Road with 35 “age-targeted” condos.  Various stages of approval or under construction.  Potential for 33 public schoolchildren NEW HOUSING IN WARREN TOWNSHIP

22. HOMES BUILT BY DECADE

23. BASELINE ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

24. PROJECTED KINDERGARTEN REPLACEMENT

25. PROJECTED ENROLLMENT BY GRADE CONFIGURATION HistoricalPK-56-8 2014-151,165674 Projected CSR 5-YR CSR 6-YR CSR 5-YR CSR 6-YR 2015-161,097 660658 2016-179981,000681677 2017-18959963648644 2018-19913919617613 2019-20879886557555

26. SCHOOL PROJECTIONS School Actual Enrollment 2014-15 Projected Enrollment 2019-20 Difference A.L. Tomaso (K-5) 300207-93 Central (K-5) 314277-37 Mount Horeb (PK-5) 265178-87 Woodland (K-5) 286231-55 Warren Middle School (6-8) 674557-117

27. CAPACITY ANALYSIS SchoolCapacity Actual Enrollment 2014-15 Difference Projected Enrollment 2019-20 Difference A.L. Tomaso (K-5) 389300+89207+182 Central (K-5) 425314+111277+148 Mount Horeb (PK-5) 522265+257178+344 Woodland (K-5) 419286+133231+188 Warren Middle School (6-8) 858674+184557+301