1. MODIS Winds Applications to NWP/Data Assimilation studies; Fairbanks, 10/08/2003 Lars Peter Riishojgaard Yan-Qiu Zhu Global Modeling and Assimilation Office NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Preparation for operational assimilation MODIS winds in the DAO

2. MODIS Winds Applications to NWP/Data Assimilation studies; Fairbanks, 10/08/2003 Overview Data assimilation at Goddard and the JCSDA Characteristics of the MODIS winds Results from pre-operational testing Summary and outlook

3. MODIS Winds Applications to NWP/Data Assimilation studies; Fairbanks, 10/08/2003 GMAO New Office at Goddard, formed via a merger of the DAO and NSIPP (NASA Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project) Head of Office: Michele Rienecker Modeling  New model targeted for 04; based on fv dynamical core, but with NWP-tuned physics Analysis  Last PSAS-based system being frozen  Next system will be based on GSI developed at EMC

4. MODIS Winds Applications to NWP/Data Assimilation studies; Fairbanks, 10/08/2003 MODIS winds pilot period assimilation experiments in the DAO Control (all standard observations; no MODIS winds) MODIS winds used “as is”; no filtering, no modification Interactive height assignment with  p max =150 hPa Interactive height assignment with  p max =75 hPa

7. MODIS Winds Applications to NWP/Data Assimilation studies; Fairbanks, 10/08/2003 Preparation for operational assimilation of MODIS winds Extensive experimentation with near-real time winds provided by CIMSS starting 07/02/2002 with versions 1.3r6 and 1.4r1 of the fv-DAS Main changes with respect to 1.2r5 (pilot period)  Increased weight given to ITOVS  Additional ITOVS data in polar areas  Modified background error covariance Main metrics  Consistency of data delivery  Quality of MODIS winds  Contribution to forecast skill

8. MODIS Winds Applications to NWP/Data Assimilation studies; Fairbanks, 10/08/2003 MODIS experiments I.Basic - MODIS winds used "as is" II.Height adjustment - the heights of MODIS winds are adjusted by minimizing a cost function III. Quality indicator-based selection; only MODIS winds with q i larger than 0.80 are used IV.Retuned  o ; error for MODIS wind is tuned using maximum likelihood technique V.“ECMWF filtering”: over land winds used above 400 hPa; over sea, IR winds above 700 hPa and WV winds above 550 hPa VI.DAOTOVS exclusion: Interactive TOVS retrievals beyond 65S removed

9. MODIS Winds Applications to NWP/Data Assimilation studies; Fairbanks, 10/08/2003 Experimental results Innovations (observation minus forecast residuals)  RAOB heights and winds  ITOVS heights  MODIS winds Impact  Troposphere  Stratosphere Forecast skill

10. MODIS Winds Applications to NWP/Data Assimilation studies; Fairbanks, 10/08/2003

12. MODIS IR U, V innovations for NH control (solid), MODIS; Arctic

13. MODIS Winds Applications to NWP/Data Assimilation studies; Fairbanks, 10/08/2003 MODIS WV U, V innovations for NH control (solid), MODIS; Arctic

14. MODIS Winds Applications to NWP/Data Assimilation studies; Fairbanks, 10/08/2003 RAOB U, V innovations for control (solid), MODIS; Arctic

15. MODIS Winds Applications to NWP/Data Assimilation studies; Fairbanks, 10/08/2003 RAOB U, V innovations for control (solid), MODIS; SP

16. MODIS Winds Applications to NWP/Data Assimilation studies; Fairbanks, 10/08/2003 RAOB height innovations for control (solid), MODIS; Arctic region

17. MODIS Winds Applications to NWP/Data Assimilation studies; Fairbanks, 10/08/2003 RAOB height innovations for control (solid), MODIS; South Pole

18. MODIS Winds Applications to NWP/Data Assimilation studies; Fairbanks, 10/08/2003 ITOVS height innovations; Arctic region

19. MODIS Winds Applications to NWP/Data Assimilation studies; Fairbanks, 10/08/2003 ITOVS height innovations; Antarctic region

20. MODIS Winds Applications to NWP/Data Assimilation studies; Fairbanks, 10/08/2003 Mean analyzed 500 hPa geopotential heights for July, 2002, for MODIS I run; NH (top left) and SH (bottom left); RHS shows difference fields (MODIS minus control).

21. MODIS Winds Applications to NWP/Data Assimilation studies; Fairbanks, 10/08/2003 NCEP mean anlyzed 500 hPa heights, July 2002, Anarctica

22. MODIS Winds Applications to NWP/Data Assimilation studies; Fairbanks, 10/08/2003 Control minus NCEPMODIS minus NCEP

23. MODIS Winds Applications to NWP/Data Assimilation studies; Fairbanks, 10/08/2003

30. Summary:  MODIS winds complement other observations at the highest latitudes; more so in the SH than in the NH due to the current data sparsity  Consistency of data delivery is acceptable  Based on independent verification and innovation statistics, the quality of the information is acceptable  Positive contribution to forecast skill, but not where one would expect it the most  Current version of fv-DAS is hostile to high- latitude wind information

31. MODIS Winds Applications to NWP/Data Assimilation studies; Fairbanks, 10/08/2003 Outlook MODIS winds experiments with new GMAO assimilation system based on GSI (next-generation EMC analysis )  Impact  Background error covariance  Timeliness MODIS winds from Aqua ECMWF verification if possible