1. EVERYTHING YOU ALWAYS WANTED TO KNOW ABOUT THE COP21 BUT WERE AFRAID TO ASK…
Inspiration from Woody Allen.
But I do not wish to be misunderstood. It is not meant to be “the COP21 for the dummies”.
Unfortunately, if you do not learn anything from my presentation, there is no way I can refund you.
However, feel free to come and see me at the end of the panel, and I will make sure you can have a bottle of French wine, tax-free BTW.

2. I. International climate negotiations : previous steps
1988
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is set up (First Assessment Report in 1990)
1992
Earth Summit in Rio; the UNFCC is opened for signature (comes into force in 1994)
1995
First COP (Berlin)
1997
Adoption of the Kyoto Protocol (COP3 – comes into force in 2005)
2007
IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report
2009
COP15, Copenhague - fail into obtaining a binding agreement to replace the Kyoto protocol
2010
COP16, Cancun - voluntary objectives and acceptance of the necessity of having verifiable commitments
2011
COP17, Durban - mandate to adopt in 2015 an universally applicable agreement for 2020 onwards
2012
COP18, Doha - a minima extension of the Kyoto protocol until 2020
2013
COP19, Warsaw - national determined contributions published by each country before the COP21
2014
IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report
COP20, Lima – drawing up of the first elements of the Paris agreement

3. I. International climate negotiations : regional groups
European Union
Environmental Integrity Group
Umbrella group
G77+China
133 countries
South Africa
28 Member states
5 countries
10 countries
ALBA
Luxembourg
Switzerland
Cartagena Dialogue
42 countries
BASIC
ARAB
AOSIS
AFRICA
LDC
AILAC
4 countries
21 countries
11 countries
39 countries Maldives
53 countries
Tanzania
48 countries Angola
6 countries Guatemala
Rainforest countries Coalition
40 countries
Panama
LMDC
Each Party to the Convention and its Kyoto Protocol is represented at sessions of the Convention bodies by a national delegation consisting of one or more officials empowered to represent and negotiate on behalf of their government.
- Developing countries generally work through the Group of 77 to establish common negotiating positions. As at May 2014, there are 133 members in the Group. The country holding the Chair of the G-77 in New York (which rotates every year) often speaks for the G-77 and China as a whole. However, because the G-77 and China is a diverse group with differing interests on climate change issues, individual developing countries also intervenes in debates, as do groups within the G-77, such as the African States, the Small Island Developing States and the group of Least Developed Countries.
- The Small Island Developing States (SIDS) is a coalition of some 40 low-lying islands, most of which are members of the G-77 that are particularly vulnerable to sea-level rise. SIDS countries are united by the threat that climate change poses to their survival and frequently adopt a common stance in negotiations. They were the first to propose a draft text during the Kyoto Protocol negotiations calling for cuts in carbon dioxide emissions of 20% from 1990 levels by 2005.
- The 48 countries defined as Least Developed Countries by the UN regularly work together in the wider UN system. They have become increasingly active in the climate change process, often working together to defend their particular interests, for example with regard to vulnerability and adaptation to climate change.
- The 28 members of the European Union meet in private to agree on common negotiating positions. The country that holds the EU Presidency - a position that rotates every six months speaks for the European Union and its 28 member states. As a regional economic integration organization, the European Union itself can be, and is, itself, a Party to the Convention. However, it does not have a separate vote from its members.
- The Umbrella Group is a loose coalition of non-EU developed countries which formed following the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol. Although there is no formal list, the Group is usually made up of Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, Kazakhstan, Norway, the Russian Federation, Ukraine and the US.
- The Environmental Integrity Group (EIG), formed in 2000, comprises Mexico, Liechtenstein, Monaco, the Republic of Korea and Switzerland.
Several other groups also work together in the climate change process, including countries from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), a group of countries of Central Asia, Caucasus, Albania and Moldova (CACAM), the Cartagena Dialogue and the Independent Alliance of Latin America and the Caribbean (AILAC).
23 countries
Non-coalition countries: Belarus, Turkey, Israel

4. II. Preparation of Paris 2015 What will be our role as host country?
Host country of the Conference, France will be in charge of its organisation and proper functioning, under the auspices of the United Nations,
Presidency of the Conference, France’s role will be to:
facilitate the debates
ensure a transparent and inclusive functioning of the negotiation process
be attentive to countries’ concerns, national situation and needs, while remaining impartial
During its COP presidency, France will be very attentive to ensuring transparent, open and constructive negotiations in which all countries take part. That will require us to be fully committed at every level of our diplomacy.
In our capacity as future president, we are working with all countries, transparently, to set out a collective goal, address the expectations of all countries, particularly the most vulnerable, and reach the compromises that will enable us to achieve a consensus in Paris among the 196 parties.

5. III. The Paris Climate Alliance : Which objectives?
Define an action plan and a legal framework ensuring that the temperature rise is to be limited to 2°C, enabling societies to adapt to climate change and promoting low- carbon development pathways.
Seal a “Paris Climate Alliance” that addresses these issues and includes:
a legally binding agreement
the national contributions
the financial chapter
the Lima Paris action agenda
The success of the COP21 will be measured against these four elements.
A- a legally binding agreement that is universally applicable with rules and mechanism able to progressively enhancing ambition
B- the national contributions that each country is requested to publish before the Conference
C- the financial chapter, ensuring the refocusing of financial flows towards an economical transition
D- the multi-stakeholder initiatives from the “Action agenda”, enabling the involvement of civil society actors with concrete solutions

6. IV. National contributions … (Intended National Determined Contributions – INDC)
56 contributions ont déjà été publiées…
More than 153 contributions
have been published…
… couvrant 60,3% des émissions globales de GES.
… covering more than 87% of global greenhouse gas emissions.
153 countries, representing about 87% of global greenhouse gas emissions, has submitted their national contributions.
The universal aspect of INDC will be reflected in the agreement.
The first round of INDC will probably not be enough to put the world back on a trajectory consistent with the 2°C target. According to first estimations, published contributions would lead to a global warming of 2,7°C. IT IS NEITHER A SURPRISE, NOR A FAILURE. In fact we are coming from very far (+3,6°C vs. Current policies even more 5-6°C with the Business as usual model). Still, there is a gap of 13 Gt of CO2 in 2025 and 17 Gt of C02 in 2030.
Parties are discussing the possibility to establish, within the framework of the new agreement, provisions for new rounds of contributions and their periodic update, while ensuring non-backtracking.
Source: World Ressource Institute

7. IV. National contributions …
Countries
% of worldwide GHG emissions
INDCs
China
22,3%
Peak of CO2 emission by 2030
-60/65% in 2030 from 2005 level
20% non-fossil energy in 2030
Carbon market in 2017
Alliance of Peaking Pioneer Cities (11 cities and provinces)
United States
13,4%
-26/28% in 2025 from the 2005 level
European Union
9,3%
-40% in 2030 and -80%/95% in 2050 from the 1990 level
India 5%
-33 to 35% of reduction intensity in 2030 from the 2005 level
Canada
1,8%
-30% in 2030 from the 2005 level
According to the Climate Action Tracker: 9 submitted INDC are inadequate (incl. Australia, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Turkey – 14% of the global emissions) – 8 are rated « medium » (EU, USA, Brazil) are consistent with the +2°C target, considering their fair share contribution. 2 are rated « good »: Ethiopia and Moroco….
Still missing: Iran, Saoudi Arabia, Venezuela, Nigeria, Egypt, Pakistan...
EU+US+China+India = 50%: important but not sufficient.
Re: Canada: consultations of the provinces were « ill-designed » - but realistic target. Announcement of J. Trudeau to consult the provinces whithin 90 days after the COP21 suggests that there won’t be any modification of the Canadian INDC MCAD in green-technologies.

8. IV. The case of France … Energy transition bill (promulgated on August 18, 2015) Main objectives :  -40% greenhouse gas emission in 2030 compared to  -30% of fossil energy consumption  32% of renewable energy (from 14%)  part of the nuclear energy : from 80% to 50%  100,000 more jobs Few examples:  tax refund of 30% of the cost of renovation (up to 16,000 € for a couple)  0% interest loan up to 30,000 €  Half of the government’s car pool will be electrical  Employers will have to subsidized bicycles for their employees.  Highways' fees reduced for electrical cars  10,000 € incentive for purchasing an electrical car  From January 1st, 2016 : no more plastic bags in the stores
Few measures of the French Energy transition bill easy to understand.
The law incorporates the EU INDC and thus will become legally binding in our domestic legislation.
- I have not mentioned the regulatory measures which have been decided for the building codes: but this is the most important potential for energy efficiency : 44% of the total energy consumption.

9. V. The financial chapter
“The cost of inaction is greater that the cost of action”
Mobilisation by developed countries of $100 billion annually, from public and private sources, by 2020
work on accountancy methods for a better estimation of climate finance flows
strengthening the momentum of financial transition towards a low-carbon economy
- The future French presidency is working with all its partners to build a financial package which would:
- strengthens the commitment to provide $100 billion a year to developing countries by 2020;
- attracts private investment in the low-carbon economy, by creating the necessary signals and incentives.
Some of the $100 billion will pass through the Green Climate Fund, which is now capitalized to the tune of $10 billion for the period and is set to become the central pillar in the international climate finance architecture.
So far, we have 62 b$ (vs. 52 in 2013). Multilateral banks have announced +15 b$. 71% from public sources – 77% on mitigation. France will increase its own contribution from 3 b$ to 5b$ in Germany, the UK, the EU Commission have announced they will double their subsidies.
The TITLE of this slide was “the cost of inaction is greater than the cost of action” because:
The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change (2006) : cost of action : -1% of GDP vs. cost of inaction : -5% of GDP.
Last September, the Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, spoke about the “Tragedy of the Horizon” : “The combination of the weight of scientific evidence and the dynamics of the financial system suggest that, in the fullness of time, climate change will threaten financial resilience and longer-term prosperity.”

10. VI. The Lima Paris action agenda hi
Energy efficiency
Renewable energies
Resilience and adaptation
Forests
Cities and subnational entities
Industry
Agriculture
Transport
Technology
Financing
Resilient cities acceleration initiative
the RE100 program launched by IKEA
International Association of Public Transport Initiative
International Cement Sustainability Initiative
African alliance for climate smart agriculture
Carbon Pricing Initiative
- The Lima-Paris Action Agenda aims to accelerate climate action before-2020 and beyond. It is a multi-stakeholder initiative.
- The choice of the upcoming French presidency is to promote an “agenda of solutions”, alongside the agreement and the national commitments. It should contribute to sending the signal that governments and non-state players are determined to carry out a transition towards low-carbon economies, with concrete initiatives: the COP21 is not only about a legal agreement and targets, but also about solutions to reach these targets.
Within the framework of the “Lima Paris Action Agenda”, the initiatives in key sectors (technology, cities, energy, transportation) will be fostered, concrete commitments will be presented in Paris. Many businesses, local governments and researchers will showcase their action.
- Each initiative, sector or individual commitments under the LPAA is expected, between now and Paris, to focus on building a tailor-made narrative, consistent with a 2°C and resilient pathway.
Commitments and initiatives can be uploaded on an online platform, NAZCA (“Non-State Actor Zone for Climate Action”) in order to facilitate reporting and monitoring of achievements, communicate on engagements and provide an overview of climate action.
During COP21, the LPAA partners will convene a High Level Meeting on Climate Action, i.e. the ‘Action Day’, on December 5th. A Day for sub-national entities is scheduled on December 8th (most Premiers of Canada will travel).
So far: commitments in the NAZCA platform; 600 cities and 100 of sub-national entities => 15% of the world population.

11. VII. Pace of the negotiations ..
The Durban Platform working group brought together the 196 delegations under the leadership of its two co-chairs, Ahmed Djoghlaf and Dan Reifsnyder and is responsible for producing the agreement.
The Bonn session has produced a new draft text:
The agreement itself (31 pages) : common but differentiated responsibilities, “no back-sliding”, national circumstances (vs. respective capacities), adaptation, loss and damages, technology transfer, capacity building…
Decisions (20 pages), incl. INDCs
The Bonn session ended up with a 51-page text which is “manageable for further work in Paris. While much work remains, the text is a good basis for negotiations”.
CONCLUSION :
The message of the IPCC’s fifth assessment report is clear: it is indisputable that climate disruption is caused by human activity. The early impacts of this disruption are being felt around the world and if we maintain our current path, temperature rises will be above 3 to 5°C by the end of the century. The sea level could rise of 7m. This is a major threat to biodiversity, food security and health.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ranked 2014 as the hottest year on record. 14 of the 15 warmest years on record have occurred in the 21st century. July was the hottest month since There are never been so many category 4 and 5 hurricanes or typhoons (21 so far vs. 12,5/year on average). The Arctic’s warming is twice as fast as the rest of the world and the melting of the permafrost is a real « climatic bomb » because it releases billions of tons of methane in the air.
To prevent ecosystem disruption at a dangerous level, the temperature rise must be kept under 2°C above pre-industrial levels. We must reduce our emission by 40 to 70% before 2050.
Based on the scientific literature, it may be possible to catch up from the INDC emission level in 2025 and still limit warming below 2°C. But in 2030, it probably won’t be possible, no matter what we do.