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Economic Trends Shaping the Future of Hiring Mariano Mamertino, Economist, Indeed Hiring Lab
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EconomistDublin
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Increasingly talent-driven economy Integrating the unemployed Two-tier labor market 1 2 3 4 5 6 6 Key Trends Talent is on the move Hidden pockets of talent Search behavior and preferences bridge generations
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1. Increasingly talent-driven economy
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A stronger EU economy GDP Quarterly Index GDP Growth Rate q-o-q% 105 100 -2 -3 2008 2007 2009201020112013201420152016 95 2012 Index, 2007 = 100 forecast 0 1 Source: European Commission Economic Forecast, Spring 2015 1.8 2.1
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Economic confidence picking up Source: European Commission 120 100 80 60 2006 2005 200720082009201020112012201320142015 Eurozone economic confidence jumps in September
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Lower EU unemployment Source: Eurostat 14% 8% 6% 4% 2007 2006 2008 20092010201120122013 20142015 10% 12% EU28Euro areaGermanyFranceItalyUnited Kingdom Unemployment rate, EU and selected countries (seasonally adjusted)
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But also lower labor force participation Source: Eurofound 85 EL HR IT ES BG MT SK RM PL HU IE BE PT CY EA18 SI EU28 FR LV LT LU CZ FI EE NL DK UK AT DE SE 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 2008 Q22011 Q22014 Q2 EU28 employment rates for 20-64 year olds
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2. Integrating the unemployed
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Different outcomes across countries Source: Eurostat Unemployment rate, June 2015 (seasonally adjusted)
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And disproportionately affecting the young Source: Eurostat Germany Latvia Netherlands Estonia Slovenia Denmark Austria Greece Lithuania Ireland EU28 Spain Cyprus Finland Slovakia Malta Sweden France Hungary Portugal Belgium United Kingdom Poland Croatia Luxembourg Romania Ireland Bulgaria Czech Republic Youth (15-24) vs. overall unemployment (ratio) 141.522.533.5 Italy
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But unemployment is lasting longer Source: Eurostat Unemployment by duration, % of total unemployed 30 <1 1-36-1212-1818-2424-48>483-6 20 10 0 Short-term unemployedLong-term unemployed 20092014 European Union total
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3. Two-tier labor market
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College education rates are rising worldwide Source: Eurostat 40% 30% 20% 10% LexembourgSweden United Kingdom IrelandFinlandBelgiumAustriaSpainFranceDenmarkEU15ItalyGreeceGermanyPortugal Population aged 16-64 with tertiary education (%) 19952014 0%
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High-skill workers are increasingly in control Source: Eurostat Unemployment rate by level of education attainment, EU28 25% 20% 15% 0% 2006 2005 20072008200920102011201220132014 10% 5% TertiaryUpper secondaryNo education, primary and lower secondaryAll levels
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Jobseeker interest in high-demand fields is growing Source: Indeed Data Digital Marketing Healthcare Administration Java Developer Web Developer Athletic Trainer Information Technology Talent Acquisition Data Analyst Network Engineer Instructional Designer 30%22%20% 13%15% 17%
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20% 15% 10% 5% 0% More specialised often means more globalised Source: Indeed Data Clicks from jobseekers abroad as % total clicks ItalyGreat BritainNetherlandsGermanyFrance SpainIreland All jobsComputer and mathematical
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4. Talent is on the move
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Talent is on the move and headed to EU
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9%9% 70% of people search for jobs outside of their current country People are willing to relocate for the right opportunity Source: Indeed Data of clicks on our European websites come from within the EU
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Top 10 most desirable countries Source: Indeed Data 1 23645789 10 United States United Kingdom India Japan Germany Italy France Canada Brazil South Africa
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Italy United Kingdom Germany Switzerland United Kingdom United States Ireland India All traffic flows France United Kingdom United States Italy United Kingdom Poland India United States Java flows Italy United Kingdom United States Germany Skilled workers search far and wide Germany United Kingdom Poland India Germany Austria United Kingdom Switzerland France United Kingdom United States Belgium
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5. Hidden pockets of talent
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Recent graduates Source: Eurostat *share of employed graduates (20 to 34 years old) having left education and training in the past one to three years 82 78 74 70 200720062008200920102011201220132014 72 76 80 Employment rate of recent graduates, EU28 (%) 2006-2014*
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The rise of self-employment Source: Eurostat 140 120 100 80 160 1996 1995 1997 1999 1998 2000 2002 2001 2003 2005 2004 2006 2007 2008 2010 2009 2011 2013 2012 2014 GermanyFranceItalyNetherlandsUnited Kingdom Self-employment as a share of population aged 16-64
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Increasing jobseekers’ interest for the gig economy Source: Indeed Data 2013 - 01 2013-072014-012014-072015-012015-07 Searches for gig jobs has increased dramatically over the past 2 years Share of all job searches
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Workers are getting older Source: United Nations Population Division 20% 15% 10% 5% 25% 1955 1950 1960 1970 1965 1975 1985 1980 1990 2000 1995 2005 2010 2015 2025 2020 2030 2040 2035 2045 Share of population aged 65+ in Europe
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Demography: a challenge and an opportunity Source: European Commission, The Economist *Forecast †20-64 year olds 20132030 30 15 0 45 ItalyPortugalGermanySwedenFinland EU28France 0.6 8.1 -1.3 -12.1 -12.7 - 6.2 -0.9 Spain Great Britain NetherlandsIreland 2.3 -11.3 -4.7 -7.4 Old-age dependency ration % % change in working population † 2013-30*
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Older workers are already working until later in life Source: Eurostat 11% 10% 9% 8% 12% Employment rates of 65-69 year-olds, EU28 (%) 2004 2003 2005200620072008200920102011201220132014
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Increasing preference for flexibility Worldwide, job searches for flexible work increased 38% over two years Source: Indeed Hiring Lab GermanyFranceItalyNetherlandsUnited KingdomPortugalSpain
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6. Job seeker behavior and preferences bridge generations
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73.4%71.3% 48.5% Millennials Baby Boomer Generation X Mobile job search isn’t just a millennial habit Share of clicks that come from a mobile device Source: Indeed Hiring Lab
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Generational differences in job search are overhyped Source: Indeed Hiring Lab Baby BoomersMillennialsGen Xers Less interest from millennials More interest from millennials Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Transportation and Material Moving Production Arts, Design and Entertainment Business and Financial Operations Sales and Related Office and Administrative 010246812141505102025
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And the same goes for gig jobs Baby Boomers (Age 51-70) Gen Xers (Age 31-50) 182.0 169.2 Millenials (Age 21-30) 158.7 050100150200 Source: Indeed Hiring Lab
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Increasingly talent-driven economy Integrating the unemployed Two-tier labor market 1 2 3 4 5 6 Talent is on the move Hidden pockets of talent Search behavior and jobseekers’ preferences bridge generations 6 Key Trends
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Get the latest Indeed Hiring Lab report indeed.co.uk/hiringlab
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Q&A
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Economic Trends Shaping the Future of Hiring Mariano Mamertino, Economist, Indeed Hiring Lab
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