1. The Faults in our Stars Goolam Ballim

2. The outlook for the global and African economies

3. STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 3 / Index: 1995 = 100 Sources: IMF, SBR Untangling structural and cyclical patterns Central & Eastern Europe LATAM & the Caribbean Developing Asia World Real GDP index SSA

4. STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 4 / GDP growth: index, 1995 = 100 Broad-based gains; “reformers” most prosperous S6 - Bfs, Eth, Moz, Rwa, Tnz, Uga Select 6 Oil exporters Low income SSA Middle income Fragile countries

5. STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 5 / Sudan 0.51.01.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 Angola Ghana Kenya Zambia Ethiopia Uganda Tanzania 4.5 Nigeria (7.9m) S.Sudan, 2030 Ethiopia, 2030 Tanzania, 2030 Uganda, 2030 Mozambique, 2030 Zambia, 2030 Kenya, 2030 Angola, 2030 Sudan, 2030 Ghana, 2030 Nigeria, 2030 (20.4m) Total middle-class households (including lower-middle class, mn (2014, 2030) Middle-class households (including lower-middle class) as a share of total HHs (2014, 2030), % 0 5 25 2020 15 10 45 40 35 30 50 Middle-income gains by 2030

6. STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 6 / Global In China’s grip

7. STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 7 / Earlier Chinese growth was robust, buoyed by credit…

8. STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 8 / … now, a structural slowdown has been unmasked…

9. STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 9 /... and China is a large global risk

10. STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 10 / EM growth is highly correlated to China

11. STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 11 / Like most EMs, key African economies are tied to China…

12. STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 12 / … with commodity-centric nations most vulnerable… Guinea 26% 86% Botswana 27% 92% Zambia 13% 73% Rep of Congo 74% 76% Cameroon 24% 51% Nigeria 14.4% 97% Gabon 66% 84% Namibia 27% 39% Angola 56% 97% Cote d’Ivoire 20% 15% LEGEND Mining (% of GDP) Fuel, Minerals & Metals (% of Exports) Ghana 17% 46% (South) Sudan 60% 78% Hydro carbon exporters Non-oil resources

13. STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 13 / … as already evinced by floundering exports…

14. STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 14 /... and across product types…

15. STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 15 / … with oil economies most exposed…

16. STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 16 / … resulting in mixed GDP growth prognosis 3-year forecast 2005-2014 average

17. STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 17 / Slowing international trade

18. STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 18 / … resulting in a structural world trade slowdown

19. STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 19 / South Africa: waiting to exhale

20. STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 20 / SA stands on rating precipice… S&P Moody’s Fitch B+ BB- BB BB+ BBB- BBB BBB+ A- A A+ B B1 Ba3 Ba2 Ba1 Baa3 Baa2 Baa1 A3 A2 A1 B2 Non-investment grade

21. STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 21 / … with market pricing signaling concern ZAR risk premium Credit risk premium Risk free rate

22. STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 22 / Poor GDP growth blights SA’s status…

23. STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 23 / … but, corporate SA outperforms…

24. STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 24 / … VAT is resilient…

25. STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 25 / … and personal income tax is buoyant …

26. STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 26 / Summary

27. STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 27 / Summary Global: China and world trade subsidence Rest of Africa: reformers will be resilient South Africa: private sector is the nation’s scaffolding

28. 5 Simmonds Street Johannesburg 2001 / P O Box 7725 Johannesburg 2000 Tel +27 (0)11 636 9112 / Fax +27 (0)11 636 6299 / Mobile +27 (0)00 000 000 standardbank.com Thank You

29. STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 29 / End of commodities super-cycle… Commodities (Energy, maize, meat, copper) Low-end durables (Stove, cars) High-end durables (Luxury cars, satellite TV) Services (Tourism, insurance, advertising) EM