1. 2030 Transit-Oriented Development Scenario: Travel Model Results
Presentation to the TPB Citizen Advisory Committee
April 14, 2005
Regional Mobility and Accessibility Study
Don McAuslan for Mark Moran
Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments
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TodScenTravMod ppt

2. TOD Scenario: What is it?
Land use: TOD land use
Places more of the region’s future household and job growth around current and planned Metrorail stations, commuter rail stations or other transit centers
Derived from Round 6.4 land activity forecasts
Transportation network: TOD network
4/14/05
Presentation to the TPB CAC

3. TOD land use: Households
Assumes a shift of 125,000 households (35% of the forecast 2010 to 2030 growth, but only 5.2% of the total 2030 HHs)
4/14/05
Presentation to the TPB CAC

4. Presentation to the TPB CAC
TOD land use: Jobs
Assumes a shift of 150,000 jobs (19% of the forecast 2010 to 2030 growth, but only 3.6% of the total 2030 employment)
4/14/05
Presentation to the TPB CAC

5. Transportation network: Fixed guideway improvements
Heavy rail (Metrorail, commuter rail)
Light rail (LRT)
Bus rapid transit (BRT)
Transitway (indicates BRT or LRT)
4/14/05
Presentation to the TPB CAC

6. Transportation network: 2005
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4/14/05
Presentation to the TPB CAC

7. Transportation network: 2030 CLRP
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4/14/05
Presentation to the TPB CAC

8. Transportation network: 2030 CLRP+
CLRP+ assumes no capital improvements, only enhancements to transit service
Most significant service enhancement: the lifting of the 2005 transit constraint through the DC core
CLRP+ is the baseline network
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4/14/05
Presentation to the TPB CAC

9. Transportation network: TOD, Map 1 of 2
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4/14/05
Presentation to the TPB CAC

10. Transportation network: TOD, Map 2 of 2
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4/14/05
Presentation to the TPB CAC

11. Map legend: Fixed guideway extensions in TOD network
4/14/05
Presentation to the TPB CAC

12. 2030 CLRP+ vs TOD: Fixed guideway miles
Fixed guideway miles have increased from 412 to 691 miles (67%), but most of the increase is in the transitway category, which includes BRT/LRT lines that may operate in mixed traffic, separate right-of-way, or a combination of the two.
Metrorail miles increase by 23% and commuter rail miles by 12%.
Source: rail_link_miles2.xls, staprotp.rpt
4/14/05
Presentation to the TPB CAC

13. Presentation to the TPB CAC
Transit Stations: How many and where?
Transit Stations
CLRP+
TOD
Change
Total Number of Stations
166
431
265
Number of Transit Stations Within a Regional Activity Cluster
109
156
Number of Transit Stations Outside a Regional Activity Cluster 57
Regional Activity Clusters
CLRP+
TOD
Change
Total Number of Regional Activity Clusters 24
---
Number of Regional Activity Clusters With One or More
Transit Stations 17 22 5
Number of Regional Activity Clusters Without a Transit Station 7 2 -5
4/14/05
Presentation to the TPB CAC

14. Presentation to the TPB CAC
TOD model results
Compared to the 2030 CLRP+, the 2030 TOD scenario results in 109,000 more transit trips per day (7.9% increase)
58,000 due to TOD network
51,000 due to TOD land use
Regional transit mode share goes from 5.7% to 6.3% (a small increase, but the largest increase of all the scenarios tested to date)
Home-based work mode share goes from 20.5% to 22.1% (again, the highest of any of the scenarios tested to date)
4/14/05
Presentation to the TPB CAC

15. Presentation to the TPB CAC
TOD model results, 2
VMT drops by about 1% (from million to million vehicle miles of travel)
HBW walk and bike trips increased 6.4%, from 253,000 to 270,000
Carpool commuters: There is a drop of 13,000 daily trips (2.0%)
AM congestion: the number of AM lane miles with a volume-to-capacity ratio > 1.0 drops by 4.6% (from 2,560 to 2,440 miles)
4/14/05
Presentation to the TPB CAC

16. Presentation to the TPB CAC
Households Within ½-Mile of a Transit Station: 2030 CLRP+, Transit Oriented Development, Higher Household Growth
Total Households, CLRP+ and TOD: 2.4 Million
Total Households, Higher Household Scenario: 2.6 Million
4/14/05
Presentation to the TPB CAC

17. Presentation to the TPB CAC
Employment Within ½-Mile of a Transit Station: 2030 CLRP+, Transit Oriented Development, & Higher Household Growth
Total Employment in 2030: 4.2 Million
4/14/05
Presentation to the TPB CAC

18. Presentation to the TPB CAC
Acknowledgments
Program Manager: Bob Griffiths
Travel model development and overview: Ron Milone and Jim Hogan
Network development: Bob Snead, John Bethea, Wanda Hamlin, Joe Davis, Bill Bacon
Mapping and technical support: Meseret Seifu, Don McAuslan
Travel modeling: Mark Moran
4/14/05
Presentation to the TPB CAC

19. Thank you
Questions?