1. A World of Connections: The coming age of ubiquitous networking Kenneth Neil Cukier GLOCOM - October 22, 2007

2. The Internet Today

3. The Internet of Tomorrow

4. * Computing and networking: PC & Web via wire 1. few | 2. humans | 3. discrete sessions | 4. media content and comms * Changing to devices & sensors via wireless 1.ever-present | 2. objects | 3. all the time | 4. data about the world Introduction

5. We are laying the foundation… For a new infrastructure… We do not know how it will be used… But it will surprise us! Overview

6. Outline - Trends: computing, IT, processors, wireless - Taxonomy of technologies - Current and future uses: * cars * factories * bodies - Public Policy & Regulation - Conclusion

7. Trends in Computing

8. Trends in I.T. * 850 million PCs * +1 billion Internet users * 2.8 billion mobile phone subscribers (1.6 million new mobile subscribers per day) * 10 billion microprocessors in 2007

9. Trends in Processors: Moore’s Law

10. Trends in Wireless Efficiency

11. Trends in Wireless Cost

12. Trends in Power Consumption

13. Trends in Data vs. Voice Traffic

14. Machines vs. Humans - Transactions by computers exceed people - 12% of DNS traffic from computers alone - M2M to surpass people circa 2009-2011 - Cell phones communicate with base-stations 800 times per second (power management) - 400 billion DNS queries per day in 2010 (peak load of 4 trillion)

15. “Things that think want to link.” -- Nicholas Negroponte, MIT, 1995 The Marriage of Chips and Communications

16. Taxonomy of Wireless Technologies

17. Examples * GPS & Bluetooth chip: $1; size of match-head * Zigbee chip: $4, size of pinky-nail (1/4 cost & size in 4 yrs * RFID tag: ¥5 * RFID prototype: 0.05mm (groove in fingerprint) * RFID 2006 sales: 1 million (2007: 1.7 million)

18. Uses * Machine-to-machine: mousetraps; vending * Sensors: buildings; environment; military * New infrastructure: lighting; paint; dust * Human bodies: monitoring; activation * Cellphones: the gateway & controller

19. Market Size by Volume

20. Market Breakdown by Application

21. Future Uses: Cars * Accident notification * Predictive maintenance * Toll charges * New uses: insurance rates; sub-prime loans; theft-prevention; traffic monitoring

22. Chips in Cars

23. Future Uses: Factories * Lighting controls / Security alarms * Remote control / Operations monitoring * Predictive Maintenance * New uses: how processes learn

24. Chips in Factories

25. Future Uses: Bodies * Vital signs * Heart fluid-pressure monitoring * Alcohol and drug intake * Blood-sugar levels & insulin dosage * New Uses: post-operative treatment

26. Chips in Bodies

27. Obstacles * Who would do it? * Who will pay for it? * Do we need it? * Will it actually work??!!

28. Public Policy * Privacy * Data-security * Intellectual property * Information overload * Radio-waves and health * Spectrum availability and allocation ___________________________________ * Interconnection of separate systems * Computer memory & “forgetting”

29. Regulation * Who, what, where, when, how? * Bilateral vs. multilateral relationships * Public- vs. private-sector governance * The risk of regulating too soon

30. Comparison of Cellphone & M2M units

31. “People often overestimate what will happen in the next two years and underestimate what will happen in ten.” -- Bill Gates, “The Road Ahead,” 1995 Conclusion

32. Thank you GLOCOM - October 22, 2007

33. Sources Indicated by slide number: 1, 4-6, 8, 14, 15, 17, 18, 21, 23, 25, 27-29, 31, 32, 33. -- N/A 2, 3, 9, 10, 11, 16, 19. -- The Economist, 2007 (references for data sources on published articles; contact speaker for more info) 7. ITU, 2005 12. Texas Instruments (Gene Frantz, 2007). 13. ITU, 2005 (data from US FCC) 20, Gartner, 2006 22. Automotive Engineering International 24. BP, CommsDesign.com, 2004 26. VeriChip, Medtronic 30. Jupiter Research, 2006