1. Visioning 2030 for Region 6 George A. Erickcek W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research July 24, 2014

2. Agenda Progress report on the preparation of the Regional Prosperity Plan – Listening Tour Agricultural and commuting profile Economic and demographic baseline Opportunity to play “what if” scenarios for the region Estimate the economic linkages between the two sub-regions of the Thumb and I-69 corridor 1

3. Where are the next generation of farmers coming from? 2 Average age of farm operators 19921997200220072012 Genesee53.054.154.955.958.2 Huron49.151.151.954.756.2 Lapeer52.253.753.856.457.4 St. Clair52.353.654.356.558.3 Sanilac51.652.854.355.456.3 Shiawassee52.953.454.456.357.5 Tuscola50.451.853.356.157.2

4. To support the region’s farming community, nonfarm opportunities are a must 3 2012 Principal Occupation of the Farm Manager Farming Other% Non-farm Genesee41841750% Lapeer66953644% Huron58155249% St. Clair58746244% Sanilac81665144% Shiawassee52950449% Tuscola64367951%

5. Agricultural production 4 Agricultural Production in Dollars (OOOs) ProductGeneseeHuronLapeerSt. ClairSanilacShiawasseeTuscola Grains, oilseeds, dry beans, and dry peas 52,714229,75466,73385,376220,428107,142183,435 Milk from cows5,305162,5869,0034,64696,72324,73123,503 Other crops and hay5,762103,03014,5955,56952,3545,52433,794 Misc.27,559159,19423,02412,34651,4617,77333,714

7. Commuting patterns in Region 6 6 CountyTotal Work in the Thumb Work in the I-69 Corridor Work outside Region 6 NumberPercentNumberPercentNumberPercent Genesee138,210 2,5061.8 80,81658.554,88839.7 Huron14,464 9,15463.3 2811.95,02934.8 Lapeer31,035 1,4754.8 11,91738.417,64356.8 St. Clair67,630 2,1463.2 27,75441.037,73055.8 Sanilac13,018 6,79752.2 1,63112.54,59035.3 Tuscola18,416 7,06438.4 1,1126.010,24055.6 Shiawassee27,634 990.4 10,44037.817,09561.9 Employed Workforce by County of Residency

15. REMI Forecasting Model Regional Economic Modeling Inc. A Forecasting and Simulation Model – A well-regarded model – Provides a baseline forecast for the region – Provides the ability to generate alternative forecasts – Extremely flexible with thousands of policy and business variables that can be changed 14

16. Forecast for Region 6 Thumb Area – Huron – Sanilac – Tuscola I-69 International Corridor – Shiawassee – Genesee – Lapeer – St. Clair 15

17. The region’s changing population profile 16 Total: 878,434

18. The region’s changing population profile 17 2020: 889,700 2010: 878,434 0.1% annual increase

19. The region’s changing population profile 18 2030: 937,600 2020: 889,700 2010: 878,434 A 0.5% annual increase from 2020 to 2030

20. Population trends 19

21. Dependency populations: Fewer kids and more seniors 20

22. Population trends: Working-age adults 21

23. Employment forecast 22

24. Detailed employment forecast 23 Employment Forecast 2013 to 2030 20132030Avg. ann. chg. Utilities 2,018 1,390-2.2% Construction 15,529 25,4723.0% Manufacturing 36,198 33,449-0.5% Wholesale trade 12,435 13,6640.6% Retail trade 46,851 51,3480.5% Transportation and warehousing 9,053 9,4020.2% Information 7,083 6,234-0.7% Finance and insurance 15,731 15,494-0.1% Real estate and rental and leasing 10,522 12,2690.9% Professional, scientific, and technical services 13,353 17,4391.6% Administrative and waste management services 23,738 29,9131.4% Educational services 7,110 8,5631.1% Health care and social assistance 49,081 64,1511.6% Arts, entertainment, and recreation 6,873 7,7110.7% Accommodation and food services 26,121 30,2510.9% Other services, except public administration 21,229 22,6450.4% Farm 9,602 6,741-2.1% Government 45,102 44,9360.0% Total 361,619 405,2890.7%

25. The region’s economic base is becoming more diverse 24

26. Economic linkages between the Thumb and I-69 Corridor IndustryThumb RegionI-69 Corridor Region Farming100030 Fabricated metals production 100080 Fabricated metals production 141000 Food production1000125 Food production201000 25 Note: Impact of 1,000 new jobs on the neighboring sub-region. Source: Regional Economic Modeling, Inc.

27. Visioning 2030 for Region 6 George A. Erickcek W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research July 24, 2014