1. CIPFA North East: 20 th November 2015 Pioneers: Dealing with risk & uncertainty in a changing world Kevin Morris - Regional Manager Sarah Pearson – Strategic Risk Practice Leader Zurich Municipal

2. 2 Follow @ZurichMunicipal on Twitter The story so far… Pioneers – Our Senior Managers Report (third edition) Cumulatively interviewed over 40 CEOs and Senior Managers This year features a focus on the North The pace of change is extraordinary, so we aren’t stopping here. 2016 report is in planning

3. 3 Follow @ZurichMunicipal on Twitter Some themes; Five (more) years of austerity Innovation and experimentation Combined authorities and devolution Health and Social Care integration The survival of Social Care The next generation authority

4. 4 Follow @ZurichMunicipal on Twitter Five (more) years of austerity Headline – DCLG - 30% reduction in funding over next 5 years – Will this follow for Local Government? Physical assets are degrading Reduced or cancelled expenditure on low profile but essential services, such as H&S Potential failure of statutory services “We’ve got a plan until 2017 - after that we don’t know where the rest is coming from” “Infrastructure will degrade - reduce spend on Highways maintenance at your peril is a strong message to members” “Our physical infrastructure is crumbling”

5. 5 Follow @ZurichMunicipal on Twitter Innovation and experimentation …are the order of the day Constant change in individual authorities, each going their own way Authorities’ risk management systems cannot keep up Building unknown risk into organisations -’unintended consequences’ “It’s like the wild west out there!” “Don’t forget the governance” “This is about risk appetite - people taking the risks no one would take before”

6. 6 Follow @ZurichMunicipal on Twitter Combined Authorities and Devolution Creation of sub regional bodies Devolution down, but also devolution up There will be consolidation and absorption Role of districts? “This is all about growing the economy- creating a diverse economy, where once there was only heavy industry” “For some this is back to the future” “District Councils are the guardians of localism”

7. Integration: Working around agendas, not organisationsaround agendas, not organisations. Evolving beyond partnership working. 7

8. 8 Follow @ZurichMunicipal on Twitter Health and Social Care integration The great experiment in Greater Manchester Huge unknowns at this stage Governance is complex, obscure and fraught with challenges Where will the liabilities sit? “Prevention is the right path, bur savings may not come through for many years, maybe decades” “Our hospital trust has huge financial challenges. Health and social care integration will not be easy” “We mustn’t lose sight of the Community in all of this”

9. 9 Follow @ZurichMunicipal on Twitter The survival of Social care CEO’s are fearful for the future of Social Care for two reasons o funding; and o unreasonable resident expectations Integration will help but will not fix the challenge Risks are high - the potential for more failures is ever present Health inequalities are unacceptable ‘If you stay on the bus for a couple more stops, you might live 12 years longer” “We’ve created a culture of learned helplessness” “Its unrealistic expectations that the local authority will always provide- how do we let go? How do we empower the community?”

10. 10 Follow @ZurichMunicipal on Twitter The ‘next generation’ authority Extraordinary transformations taking place to create enabling authorities Northamptonshire cited as a case study o reduction in direct staff from 4,000 to 150 o a small commissioning core and four delivery organisations A new kind of risk management for public services “The world has changed and Local Government has become an ineffective model” “Austerity and demand are a perfect catalyst for change”

11. 11 Follow @ZurichMunicipal on Twitter ‘Its like the wild west out there!’ Massive and accelerating change Ideas becoming reality Risk Managers can’t cope Innovation carries huge risk - what are the unintended consequences of failure? Lets see what 2016 brings!

12. Resilient future On a scale of 1 – 5 (where 1 is more and 5 is less) Do you think your role in managing risk will be more or less important in the future 12

13. Resilient future On a scale of 1 – 5 (where 1 is more and 5 is less) How confident are you in your ability to deal with this new world of risk? 13

14. 14 Follow @ZurichMunicipal on Twitter Resilient future What is the role of the Risk Manager? Anticipate trends and the ensuing risks Support the evolution of ‘new ways of working’ Do some of the hard work- understanding the vulnerabilities which others would choose not to see Be the conscience of the organisation, without being a drag Facilitate answers to problems

15. What we would like you to do, please Please take time to read the report- it only takes 10 minutes. Think about how it relates to the customers you serve and the contacts you have. Are they going through changes? What do they mean for them and for us? Are they creating new organisations, outsourcing, merging? Are there business opportunities for us? Please keep everyone informed, the pace of change is frantic 15

16. Thank you Kevin Morris Regional Manager Kevin.1.morris@uk.zurich.com Mobile: 07710038497 Sarah Pearson Strategic Risk Consultant Sarah.pearson@uk.zurich.com Mobile: 07875887320 16