1. IS THE SCRAMBLE FOR LAND FORECLOSING A SMALLHOLDER AGRICULTURAL EXPANSION STRATEGY? T.S. Jayne, Antony Chapoto, Nicholas Sitko, Milu Muyanga, Chewe Nkonde and Jordan Chamberlin Photo: Christiaensen and Demery (2007) Presentation at the World Bank Land and Poverty Conference Washington, DC 26 March, 2014

2. 16 Selected newspaper headlines -- Kenya 27 28

3. Motivation Do African governments have an accurate understanding of: how much good agricultural land remains? how rapidly this remaining land is being purchased/acquired? by whom? Implications for their own agricultural / rural dev plans?

4. 62% < 25 years old ] Age pyramids, rural SSA, 2015 Source: UN Pop Council, 2013

6. Data 1. Area transferred to large-scale investors: Schoneveld (2014) only since 2005 > 2000 ha 2. Existing LS farmland: Ministries of Agriculture nationally- representative 3. SS (0-5 ha) and MS (5-100 ha) farmland: nationally- representative farm surveys from Ministries of Ag

7. Conclusion 1 Rapid rise of medium-scale farmers (5-100 ha)

11. Conclusion 2 Land under control of MS farms exceeds that of LS (foreign + domestic)

12. More land cultivated/owned by MS than by large-scale, including LS foreign investors Large scale (foreign+domestic) Medium scale (5-100 ha) Million hectares Ghana (cultivated) 3.084.21 Kenya (cultivated) 0.690.84 Zambia (owned) 2.112.47

13. Medium-scale farmers’ characteristics: Kenya (n=300) Farm-led growth strategy (n=82) Non-farm led growth strategy (n=118) Heads had non-farm job 42%58% _civil servant 71%68% _private sector 29%32% Heads had business52%42% Heads level of education: _informal12%7% _primary43%24% _secondary27%22% _post-secondary18%47% Father to household head: _landholding owned (ha)94.745.1 _non-farm job33%38% _some formal education35%40%

14. Medium-scale farmers’ characteristics: Kenya (n=300) Farm-led growth strategy (n=82) Non-farm led growth strategy (n=118) Heads had non-farm job42%58% _civil servant 71%68% _private sector 29%32% Heads had business52%42% Heads level of education: _informal12%7% _primary43%24% _secondary27%22% _post-secondary18%47% Father to household head: _landholding owned (ha)94.745.1 _non-farm job33%38% _some formal education35%40%

15. Medium-scale farmers’ characteristics: Kenya (n=300) Farm-led growth strategy (n=82) Non-farm led growth strategy (n=118) Heads had non-farm job42%58% _civil servant 71%68% _private sector 29%32% Heads had business52%42% Heads level of education: _informal12%7% _primary43%24% _secondary27%22% _post-secondary18%47% Father to household head: _landholding owned (ha)94.745.1 _non-farm job33%38% _some formal education35%40%

16. Conclusion 3 Medium-scale farmers control more land than small-scale farmers (0-5 ha) in Zambia and most likely in Ghana as well

17. Large scaleMedium- scale (5-100 ha) Small-scale (0-5 ha) Total land controlled Million hectares Ghana (2005) 3.084.215.08= 12.37 Kenya (2006) 0.690.842.63= 4.16 Zambia (2012) 2.112.472.09= 6.67

18. Large scale Medium- scale (5-100 ha) Small- scale (0-5 ha) Total land controlled PAC remaining (arable + grasslands) Million hectares Ghana3.084.215.08= 12.373.56 Kenya0.690.842.63= 4.161.01 Zambia2.112.472.09= 6.673.35

19. Conclusion 4 Potentially available cropland (PAC) is 25% or less in relation to land already utilized in Kenya and Ghana

20. Conclusion 4: PAC is sizeable in Zambia, but small as proportion of land already utilized in Kenya and Ghana PAC including forest land / (PAC + already utilized) PAC excluding forest land / (PAC + already utilized) Million hectares Ghana (cultivated) 26.8%22.4% Kenya (cultivated) 21.5%19.5% Zambia (owned) 43.1%33.4%

21. Conclusion 5 Rising concentration of landholdings and cultivated area

22. Gini coefficients of landholding PeriodMovement in Gini coefficient: Ghana (cult. area)1992  2005 0.54  0.65 Kenya (cult. area)1994  2006 0.51  0.55 Zambia (landholding)2001  2012 0.42  0.49

23. Conclusions 1. Rate of growth of medium-scale farms (MS: 5-100 ha) 10 times faster than small-scale (SS: 0-5 ha) farms 2. Despite major focus on large-scale “land grabs”, more farm land is owned by MS farmers than by LS farms 3. Land controlled by MS farmers > that of SS farmers (0-5 ha) in at least 1 of the 3 countries examined (probably 2/3 by 2014) 4. Mean farm size rising in some countries even while holdings are gradually shrinking for most farm hhs 5. Rising Gini coefficients over time in landholdings / cultivated area 6. Potentially available cropland as % of total utilized + unutilized arable land: ranges from 43.1% (Zambia) to 21.5% (Kenya)

24. Implications 1. Revolutionary changes in farm structure in Africa 2. Lack of clarity about the potential for smallholder land expansion 3. While productivity growth on existing farmland is most desirable path, area expansion will be required for employment of the rapidly growing labor force 4. Elite take-over of land? Potential for area expansion for smallholder farmers / indigenous rural communities?

25. Stylized fact: A stylized fact is often a broad generalization that summarizes some complicated statistical relationship, which although essentially true, may have inaccuracies in the detail. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stylized_fact