1. May 17 th, 2010 Building Resilient & Sustainable Cities in TURKEY TURKEY Mustafa Alver, Operations Officer, World Bank Malatya, Turkey– November 14, 2015

2. What do we mean by sustainable development? Defined by the United Nations Brundtland Commission as “development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.” Weighing trade-offs between today’s and tomorrow’s consumption Involving: Factors such as Land, Water, Air, Productivity, Efficiency, Growth and Conservation – while also accounting for infrastructure costs Population and economic growth are also key elements of sustainability: How do we provide for present and future generations? Cities are a lens through which we can view and act on sustainability challenges Framing the Questions on Sustainable Development

3. Context Rapid urbanization and shift to secondary cities Increasing traffic congestion and air pollution Weak urban planning framework and application High energy dependency and reliance on imports Relevance Cities as a focus of Sustainable Development Modality for implementing elements of 10 th National Development Plan, KENTGES, and other national strategies and plans Adding 14 new Metro Municipalities and expansion to provincial boundaries

4. Turkey’s Rapid Urbanization Turkey’s rapid urbanization has transformed the country demographically. Urban population has grown from 25% (1950s) to 75% (today). Urbanization causes growth through productivity gains but also puts new pressures on cities

5. Spatial Distribution of Firms Established from 2007 to 2010 Can secondary cities leverage economic spillovers? Economic shift with demographic shift

6. The “Upside” of Urbanization -- for Growth Structural: Massive shift from agriculture to manufacturing and services yields productivity gains GDP per capita doubles in Turkey from 1980 to the present

7. The “Upside” of Urbanization -- Sustainability  Achieving urban density is a key policy measure to promote environmental sustainability  On average, Turkish cities perform well; cities are dense and energy consumption is modest, but growing with limited public transit options

8. Potential Downside: Housing Affordability Share of Rent and Utilities in Total Household Expenditure at high and low income household level

9. Meters of High Transit Capacity per capita Source: TRACE Studies and Database, 2012 Urban transport options have not kept pace with urban growth Potential Downside: Congestion

10. Economic growth and car ownership rates are linked Potential Downside: Emissions

11. Potential Downside: Unsustainable Path

12. Potential Downside: Loss of Green Space Provisioning for green space: increasing urban land values are placing new pressures on city officials to develop land Many Turkish cities have low Green Space/person ratios. Strengthened land use planning can improve this Consumption of land is critical problem – planning is key Many Turkish cities are down here.

13. Potential Downside: Consumption of Fuel High Petroleum Intensity in Turkey

14. Potential Downside: Pushing out development Rapid population growth in secondary cities Rapid population growth in secondary cities Demand for high quality and larger housing Demand for high quality and larger housing As density drives up housing prices in the city center, residents move further to suburban areas for larger space, a trade-off with longer commuting As density drives up housing prices in the city center, residents move further to suburban areas for larger space, a trade-off with longer commuting

15. Causing Sprawl As cities grow they need to plan to avoid costly problems

16. What to do? Managing Urbanization is Key Turkey municipal water performance compares well. Market pricing results in reasonable consumption per capita, unlike in other countries Institutional Role: Metropolitan Municipalities & Water Utilities

17. What to do? Innovation & the Private Sector Unlike many countries Turkey can benefit from its private sector

18. Source: TRACE Studies and Database, 2012 Emphasis on three dimensions of sustainability at the city level Sustainable Cities Framework Social Sustainability Financial and Economic Sustainability Environmental Sustainability Affordability, accessibility, safety for all citizens Mitigating air pollution, noise, greenhouse gas Value-for-money of investments, managing assets, stability of funding

19. Environmental Sustainability Almost ¾ of energy use and GHG will come from cities 81% of urban energy demand increases will come from non-OECD cities Turkey is an energy import dependent country with growing demand Developing countries will triple their built-up area Buildings alone account for 35- 40% of global energy use Transport accounts for 25-30% of energy demand

20. Potential Areas for Support Improving credit-worthiness (Shadow Credit Ratings) Improving multi-year capital investment planning (CDP & Toolkit) Strengthening intergenerational equity in finance (MF Handbook) Providing long-term financing (Iller Bank, IBRD and other IFI funds) Conducing life-cycle costing for investments (ECO2 Cities Handbook) Strengthening cost recovery (Municipal Finance Credit Enhancement TA) Generating cost savings from energy efficiency gains (TRACE) Achieving higher economic return on investments (WB advisory services) Financial Sustainability

21. Potential Areas for Support Citizen participation in GPS mapping of service needs Support centers and facilities for ‘homeless’ children Citizen report cards and service feedback mechanisms Access to services of disadvantaged groups: physically disabled, women, affordable transport for low income households ** Social Sustainability Diagnostics will identify key challenges at the city level and prospective solutions Social Sustainability

22. Principles Design a Policy Instrument that enables implementation and monitoring of 10 th National Development Plan, Energy Efficiency Law and Strategy, KENTGES, and other national plans and strategies Establish a Platform that enables effective investment programming Sustainable Cities Project Concept Modalities SCP will drive urban planning and investments Multiyear CIPs will provide investment framework to leverage IFI financing – as an alternative to “one-off” investments -- opportunities to work with the French Development Agency and EIB as cofinanciers Building on Turkey’s Successes, Improving for the Future

23. Sustainable City Planning and Management Systems Preparing Comprehensive Integrated Metropolitan Municipality Plans (CIMMP) Develop strategic vision Spatial/land-use planning designations Environmental planning factors Assessment of housing stock, affordability and demand Urban transport planning Planning and provisioning for green space Infrastructure inventory with projected long-term needs Energy Efficiency Measures Preparation of multi-year capital investment plan (CIP) Development of GIS System to monitor and maintain infrastructure network SCP: Component One

24. Municipal Investments within a SC Action Plan Urban Transport: BRT/Municipal buses, TRAMs, Trolley buses, road/corridor development, pedestrian walkways, bikepaths, municipal parking garages, intersection and choke-point improvements, synchronized traffic light systems, traffic management systems Energy Efficiency Investments: Public lighting, municipal building retrofitting, water supply systems, urban transport Water Supply and Wastewater: Water purification, water supply and sanitation network rehabilitation and extension, wastewater treatment plant (extension, upgrade or new facility) Solid Waste: Closing of uncontrolled dump sites, new sanitary landfills, waste-to-energy options, recycling SCP: Component Two

25. Diagnostic Tools: Energy Efficiency Focus What is TRACE? A practical tool for conducting rapid assessment of energy use in cities to identify and prioritize sectors, and suggest specific energy efficiency interventions with 3 principal components: 1.A city energy benchmarking tool 2.A process for prioritizing sectors that offer the greatest EE potential 3.A ‘playbook’ of tried and tested EE recommendations

26. Moving Forward THANK YOU Diagnostic Tools: Energy Efficiency Focus What is TRACE? The TRACE Tool

27. Moving Forward THANK YOU Diagnostic Tools: Energy Efficiency Focus What is TRACE? The TRACE Tool 59 Recommendations in total Mix of strategic programs and specific sector activities 191 case studies with hyper- links to other resources and tools Each recommendation ‘rated’ on three attributes: Energy Savings Potential, First Cost, Speed of implementation

28. Moving Forward THANK YOU Diagnostic Tools: Energy Efficiency Focus Gaziantep TRACE Results Energy Density of Potable Water Production in Gaziantep (kWh/m 3 ) Water system in Gaziantep was designed for 300,000 people and now serves 1,300,000 people Potential yearly energy savings from Gaziantep Water System: $14 million Life-cycle costing should be part of original designs and upgrading investments About 7% of Gaziantep Metro Municipality’s Annual Budget could be saved.

29. Moving Forward THANK YOU Diagnostic Tools: Energy Efficiency Focus Gaziantep TRACE Results Municipal Buildings Electricity Consumption (kWh/m 2 ) in Gaziantep Retrofitting municipal buildings to improve energy efficiency would have direct benefits, while indirectly the municipality’s initiative can have a demonstration effect.

30. Potential Areas for Support Improve fiscal performance: Own-source revenues Reduce overdue arrears to creditors and state agencies Enhance credit-worthiness and access to market-based finance Financial Sustainability Metro Municipality of Turkey 1 Municipal Sector Average Metro Municipality of Turkey 2 Metro Municipality of Turkey 3 20122013201220132012201320122013 Fiscal Performance Operating balance/operating revenue (%)30.5137.2343.4146.3748.1541.8256.3260.06 Overall results/Total revenue (%)-3.12-14.163.91-4.095.021.329.840.56 Debt Direct Debt servicing/Current revenue (%)40.4336.3027.6720.4924.1618.2718.426.91 Direct risk/Current balance (x years)2.805.342.273.553.24.50.70.8 Direct debt/current balance (x years)2.112.382.002.563.24.50.70.8

31. Potential Areas for Support Citizen participation in GPS mapping of service needs Support centers and facilities for ‘homeless’ children Citizen report cards and service feedback mechanisms Access to services of disadvantaged groups: physically disabled, women, affordable transport for low income households ** Social Sustainability Diagnostics will identify key challenges at the city level and prospective solutions Social Sustainability Social Sustainability Performance

32. Moving Forward THANK YOU! TEŞEKKÜRLER!