1. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use1 A Sample Presentation of The State of the Church in Arizona and the Phoenix and Tucson Metro Areas 1990-2000 Dave Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org

2. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use2 The first 24 slides are from the “State of the Church in Arizona” Powerpoint. The Complete Powerpoint is 43 slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UAZ20.htm. It includes maps of church attendance in every county, as well as denominational charts, average size charts, church planting charts, ethnicity charts and population growth information. http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UAZ20.htm

3. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use3 In 1996, polls taken immediately after the Presidential election revealed that 58% of people claimed they had voted, when in reality only 49% actually did. This is called the Halo Effect. People tend to over-inflate their participation in activities that create acceptability within their social group. For many decades, pollsters such as Gallup and Barna have reported that around 45% of Americans attend church every Sunday. But there is a religious Halo Effect. Actual attendance counts have shown that the percentage of people attending church on any given weekend is much lower than was previously thought.

4. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use4 The Intent of this presentation is to answer and then expand on two key questions: “How Many People Really Attend Church in Arizona Every Week?” “Is the Christian Church Going Forward or Backwards in Influence in Arizona?” As the data is analyzed county by county assessing a number of factors, a comprehensive picture of the State of the Church in Arizona will begin to take shape.

5. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use5 This study uses weekend church attendance as a more reliable and more immediate snapshot of Christian influence than membership. The following map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in all 50 states in 2000. Arizona has an attendance percentage (14.3%) that is much lower than the average for the nation (18.7%).

6. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use6

7. 7 The Next Map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in 2000 for each county in Arizona.

8. 8.1% La Paz 8.4% Navajo 8.6% Mohave 12.3% Coconino 12.4% Pinal 13.5% Yavapai 13.5% Apache 13.7% Graham 13.8% Yuma 14.7% Maricopa 14.8% Gila 15.6% Cochise 16.2% Pima 21.7% Santa Cruz 24.3% Greenlee 0.0% to 13.5% 13.5% to 14.8% 14.8% to 25.3% Arizona Counties Percentage of Population in 2000 at Christian churches on any Given Weekend Beige = High Rose = Medium Blue = Low

9. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use9 The Next 2 Maps show the population numbers for each county in Arizona. The first map shows the population size of each county. The second map shows the growth or decline in population for each county from 1990 - 2000.

10. Arizona Counties Population 8,547 Greenlee 19,715 La Paz 33,489 Graham 38,381 Santa Cruz 51,335 Gila 69,423 Apache 97,470 Navajo 116,320 Coconino 117,755 Cochise 155,032 Mohave 160,026 Yuma 167,517 Yavapai 179,727 Pinal 843,746 Pima 3,072,149 Maricopa 0 to 69,423 69,423 to 160,026 160,026 to 3,072,150

11. Arizona Counties Population Increase 539 Greenlee 5,871 La Paz 6,935 Graham 7,832 Apache 8,705 Santa Cruz 11,119 Gila 19,729 Coconino 19,812 Navajo 20,131 Cochise 53,131 Yuma 59,803 Yavapai 61,535 Mohave 63,348 Pinal 176,866 Pima 950,048 Maricopa 0 to 11,119 11,119 to 59,803 59,803 to 950,049

12. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use12 The Next 2 Slides show the ethnicity of Arizona in 1990 and 2000. The third slide shows the grow of decline in the percentage of the population for each ethnic group.

13. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use13

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16. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use16 The Next Graph shows the attendance numbers for the churches in Arizona in 1990 and 2000. Most noteworthy is the strong growth of Evangelical and Catholic churches and the slight growth Mainline churches. Unfortunately, as overall worship attendance has remained quite stable, the population has grown dramatically. A more reliable standard for evaluating increasing or declining influence is the percentage of the population attending church on any given weekend, shown in the second graph.

17. © 2004 by David T. Olson

19. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use19 The Next Chart shows the relative strength of the 8 major denominational groups in Arizona. The Pie Chart shows Catholics are the predominate group in Arizona.

21. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use21 The Next Chart shows the 1990 & 2000 average church attendance by group for both this state and the nation.

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23. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use23 The Next Map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in 2000 for each county in Arizona.

24. 8.1% La Paz 8.4% Navajo 8.6% Mohave 12.3% Coconino 12.4% Pinal 13.5% Yavapai 13.5% Apache 13.7% Graham 13.8% Yuma 14.7% Maricopa 14.8% Gila 15.6% Cochise 16.2% Pima 21.7% Santa Cruz 24.3% Greenlee 0.0% to 13.5% 13.5% to 14.8% 14.8% to 25.3% Arizona Counties Percentage of Population in 2000 at Christian churches on any Given Weekend Beige = High Rose = Medium Blue = Low

25. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use25 The Next Map shows the growth or decline of attendance percentages for Evangelical churches in each county in Arizona between 1990 and 2000. For evangelicals, 4 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 11 counties declined.

26. -27.0% Pinal -24.0% La Paz -23.0% Yuma -22.8% Navajo -22.5% Mohave -19.5% Yavapai -18.4% Graham -14.3% Gila -13.1% Greenlee -10.9% Pima -10.7% Maricopa 11.4% Apache 17.2% Santa Cruz 17.3% Cochise 27.2% Coconino Decline Growth Arizona Counties Growth or Decline in Percentage of Population at Evangelical churches from 1990 - 2000 Rose = Growth Blue = Decline

27. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use27 The Complete Arizona Powerpoint is 43 slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UAZ20.htm. It includes maps of church attendance in every county in the metro area, as well as denominational charts, average size charts, church planting charts, ethnicity charts and population growth information.

28. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use28 The next 12 slides are from the “State of the Church in Phoenix” Powerpoint. The Complete Powerpoint is 45 slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Phoenix.htm. It includes maps of church attendance in every county in the metro area, as well as denominational charts, average size charts, church planting charts, ethnicity charts and population growth information. http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Phoenix.htm

29. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use29 The Next Graph shows the attendance numbers for the churches in the Phoenix metro in 1990 and 2000. All groups have grown numerically in attendance percentage in Phoenix over the last decade. The total number attending church in Phoenix has increased 100,000 between 1990-2000. However, as population has grown incredibly rapidly, a more reliable standard for evaluating increasing or declining influence is the percentage of the population attending church on any given weekend, shown in the second graph. This graph shows a decline in the percentage of the population attending church.

30. © 2004 by David T. Olson

32. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use32 The Next Graph is a Pie graph visualizing the percentage of the population at churches in each category in 2000. The “Absent” category indicates the percentage of the population that is not worshipping at a Christian church on any given weekend. The second graph shows the percentage gain or decline for each category in Phoenix in 1990 and 2000.

33. © 2004 by David T. Olson

35. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use35 The Next Map shows the growth or decline in the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend from 1990 to 2000 for each county. Both counties in Phoenix declined in attendance percentage.

36. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use36 Phoenix Metro Counties 1990 - 2000 Growth or Decline in Percentage of the Population at Worship in All Christian Churches on a Given Weekend Blue = Decline Rose = Growth

37. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use37 The Next 3 Maps show the growth or decline of attendance percentages for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in each county in Phoenix between 1990 and 2000. For Evangelical, Mainline and Catholic churches, both counties declined in attendance percentage.

38. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use38 Phoenix Metro Counties 1990 - 2000 Growth or Decline in Percentage of the Population at Worship in All Evangelical Churches on a Given Weekend Blue = Decline Rose = Growth

39. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use39 Phoenix Metro Counties 1990 - 2000 Growth or Decline in Percentage of the Population at Worship in All Mainline Churches on a Given Weekend Blue = Decline Rose = Growth

40. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use40 Phoenix Metro Counties 1990 - 2000 Growth or Decline in Percentage of the Population at Worship in All Catholic Churches on a Given Weekend Blue = Decline Rose = Growth

41. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use41 The Complete Phoenix Powerpoint is 43 slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Phoenix.htm. It includes maps of church attendance in every county in the metro area, as well as denominational charts, average size charts, church planting charts, ethnicity charts and population growth information. http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Phoenix.htm

42. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use42 The next 7 slides are from the “State of the Church in Tucson” Powerpoint. The Complete Powerpoint is 46 slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Tucson.htm. It includes maps of church attendance in every county in the metro area, as well as denominational charts, average size charts, church planting charts, ethnicity charts and population growth information. http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Tucson.htm

43. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use43 The Next Graph shows the attendance numbers for the churches in the Tucson metro in 1990 and 2000. All groups have grown numerically in attendance percentage in Tucson over the last decade. The total number attending church in Tucson has increased by 12,000 between 1990-2000. However, as population has grown incredibly rapidly, a more reliable standard for evaluating increasing or declining influence is the percentage of the population attending church on any given weekend, shown in the second graph. This graph shows a decline in the percentage of the population attending church.

44. © 2004 by David T. Olson

46. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use46 The Next Chart shows the relative strength of the 8 major denominational groups in Tucson metro area. No denominational family has increase their share of attendance in the last 10 years.

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48. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use48 The Next Chart shows the net gain in the number of churches in the Tucson Metro area in the past decade. There was a net growth of 45 churches. However, to keep up with the population of the Tucson metro, there would have needed to have been 62 more churches started from 1990 - 2000.

49. © 2004 by David T. Olson

50. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use50 The Complete Tucson Powerpoint is 46 slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Tucson.htm. It includes maps of church attendance in every county in the metro area, as well as denominational charts, average size charts, church planting charts, ethnicity charts and population growth information. http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Tucson.htm

51. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use51 This Presentation is based on a nationwide study of American church attendance, as reported by churches and denominations. The database currently has average worship attendances for each of the last 10 years for over 200,000 individual churches. It also uses supplementary information (actual membership numbers correlated with accurate membership to attendance ratios) to project the attendances of all other denominational and independent churches. All told, accurate information is provided for over 300,000 orthodox Christian churches. 1 1 This presentation looks only at people attending orthodox Christian churches. Approximately 3 million people attend non-orthodox Christian churches, and perhaps 3 million attend a religious service of another religion. Those ‘houses of worship’ would add another 35,000 churches in the United States and increase the 2000 percentage to 20.5%.

52. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use52 For More Information... Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org for additional information on the American Church.www.theamericanchurch.org 12 Surprising Facts about the American Church is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/ 12supm. htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/ 12supm. htm The complete Arizona Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UAZ20.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UAZ20.htm The Complete Phoenix Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Phoenix.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Phoenix.htm The Complete Tucson Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Tucson.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Tucson.htm A Combo Pack (12 Surprising Facts, Arizona, Phoenix and Tucson Powerpoints) is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/combo/AZ0.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/combo/AZ0.htm