1. EC-Earth – Copenhagen, Sep. 7/8, 2011 Coupling LPJ-GUESS to EC-Earth – Progress to Date and Plans Lund University - Paul Miller, Guy Schurgers, Ben Smith, Almut Arneth KNMI – Philippe Le Sager, Martina Weiss, Bart van den Hurk

2. Outline LPJ-GUESS version 2.1 & Motivation EC-Earth / LPJ-GUESS Coupling – Progress to date Plans – near term Plans – long term Goal: quantification and greater understanding of the feedbacks (biogeophysical and biogeochemical) between vegetation and climate at various temporal and spatial scales

3. Average individual for plant functional type or species cohort in patch Modelled area (stand) 10 ha - 2500 km 2 replicate patches in various stages of development Patch 0.1 ha treegrass crown area height fine roots leaves LAI sapwood heartwood 0-50 cm 50-100 cm leaves / LAI fine roots stem diameter crown area height fine roots leaves LAI sapwood heartwood sapwood heartwood 0-50 cm 50-100 cm leaves / LAI fine roots stem diameter LPJ-GUESS ’cohort mode’ resolves plant individuals, canopy vertical structure and patch-scale heterogeneity* *Smith et al. 2001 Global Ecology and Biogeography 10: 621

4. Dominant Global Vegetation in LPJ-GUESS v2.1 Picea Pinus Larch TeBS Birch TeBE TrBE TrIBE TrBR C3G C4G No Veg Benchmarking datasets for carbon pools & fluxes, water fluxes, vegetation

5. RCA-GUESS can be used to identify hotspots of biophysical vegetation -feedbacks – significant locally and seasonally Hydrological cycle feedbacks in southern and central Europe (summer) - underlying vegetation response Change in JJA mean annual open land LAI SCN - CTL negative T feedback CO 2 fertilization  LAI increase  E increase  Central Europe: positive T feedback warming/drying  LAI decrease  E decrease  Southern Europe:

6. H-TESSEL Has Vegetation as a Fixed Input Field Each grid cell has two vegetation types, one high and one low, with specified cover fractions Based on GLCC data & BATS classification (1km) 1km raw data is aggregated for various IFS resolutions Source: IFS Documentation Cy36r1

7. Low and High Vegetation Source: IFS Documentation Cy36r1

8. Prescribed Vegetation Properties Source: IFS Documentation Cy36r1

9. Replacing H-TESSEL’s Prescribed Vegetation with LPJ- GUESS Output Source: IFS Documentation Cy36r1 No_veg C3 GRASS BNS BNE IBS BINE TeBS TeBE C4 GRASS } TROPICAL TREES LPJ-GUESS v2.1 – PFT with Maximum LAI

10. Offline/coupled set-up LPJ-GUESS v2.1 CMIP5/RCPs 6h Forcing 1 Jan 1850 - Restart LPJ-GUESS v2.1 EC-Earth (IFS/H-TESSEL) V2.3 OASIS EC-Earth PreIndustrial (v2.2) (1800-49) In Future: Canopy Height, Albedo, Water Uptake LPJ-GUESS DUMMY Daily LAI high/low veg LAI For testing... Compare with default EC-Earth fields offline OASIS Land use coupled Soil water Soil temp. Precip. 2m Temp SW rad. Snow Guy Schurgers & Uwe Fladrich

11. First Offline, (v2.2) PreIndustrial Runs Use 1840-49 monthly averages of T air, T soil, SW radiation, soil water OR precipitation Uses same T159 resolution as IFS Uses soil properties as decribed in Balsamo et al. (2009) Starts from bare ground and runs for 400 years, for all 9072 land points ”Low” LAI: No tree PFTs in simulation ”High” LAI: All PFTs can establish ”Savestate” on Dec 31, 1849 still being implemented Spinup Natural Vegetation at (45.4 N, 2.5 E) HTESSEL: Interrupted Forest

12. Tropical and Boreal/Tundra ”High” Tile Vegetation Natural Vegetation at (65.61 N, 50.4 E) HTESSEL: Evergreen Needleaved Trees Natural Vegetation at (-5 N, 58.5 W) HTESSEL: Interrupted Forest

13. Dominant Vegetation types (“High” Tiles) Dominant vegetation from first offline spinup run uses “old” preindustrial spinup data (v2.2) Dominant vegetation types reasonable nonetheless Tropical PFTs Temperate PFTs Boreal/Tundra PFTs Grasses No Vegetation

14. “High Tile” Annual LAI Fields Tropical Vegetation Tundra Grasses No Vegetation

15. Carbon Cycle Benchmarks Discrepancy due to, e.g. LPJ-GUESS spinup too short Lower pCO 2 in 1849 Biases in ECE output T159 areas used to uspcale??? VariableCRU forced, 1961-90 EC-Earth, Preindustrial, 1940-49 NPP (GtC/yr) 5840 Vegetation Carbon (GtC) 802569 Soil Carbon (GtC)1331876

16. IFS LPJ-GUESS online coupling Status = Coupled !! –LPJ-GUESS uses 15 fields from IFS –Global fields, 6h coupling, T159 –IFS receives but does not use LAIs –Successful 3 year testrun with EC-Earth v2.3 –LPJ-GUESS starts from bare ground Before distribution –realistic & automatic restart (IFS/NEMO/LPJ-GUESS) –LPJ-GUESS restart files (generated with most recent Preindustrial control run) – no longer bare ground –Thorough testing –practical & unflawed coupling frequency (IFS-NEMO-LPJ- GUESS (TM5?)

17. EC-Earth & LPJ-GUESS – Next Steps Produce LPJ-GUESS restart for 01-Jan-1850.... And continue the technical testing on ECMWF supercomputers Use LPJ-GUESS LAI fields in EC-Earth sensitivity tests Compare runs with ECE soil water and LPJ- GUESS soil water Add some new shrub PFTs (eg for Australia) GOAL: first coupled run by end of 2011

18. EC-Earth & LPJ-GUESS Some Planned Experiments ECE v CRU offline, 1901-2005 – determination of biases Assess sensitivity of EC-Earth to LAI fields from LPJ-GUESS Beyond LAI: sensitivity to new fields, e.g. albedo, canopy height/z0, water uptake etc. Pinatubo experiment – are climate and vegetation anomalies amplified or damped in coupled experiments? Spring and summer droughts

19. EC-Earth (IFS/H-TESSEL/PISCUS) Studying Feedbacks with LPJ-GUESS & EC- Earth (v2.x) LPJ-GUESS Version X + OASIS Interface v2.0 CMIP5/RCPs/Land Use etc. OASIS F90 6h Forcing (17 Fields) LAI high/low 1 Jan 1850 - Restart LPJ-GUESS OASIS EC-Earth PreIndustrial Output, 1800-49 CH4, CO2, BVOC, NOx TM5 N dep, Ozone v2.x/v3?

20. Current LPJ-GUESS Development Activity Coupled Nitrogen-Carbon dynamics Tropical wetlands BVOC parameterisation for global PFTs Land use & agriculture (based on LPJ-mL) Ozone effects on plants Global SPITFIRE model parameterisation Forest management module Migration module Reduced timestep (diurnal cycle) The Gridcell class Generic OASIS interface

21. Thank You!