1. Korea Pedestrian Working Group The Korea Transport Institute Economic Appraisal for Technical Regulation on Pedestrian Protection (I): focused on head protection Cheol Oh, Ph.D., cheolo@koti.re.kr Korean Pedestrian Working Group and Center for Advanced Transportation Research Center The Korea Transport Institute

2. -2- The Korea Transport Institute 2 Estimation of Target Population Pedestrian accident study in Korea 128 pedestrian-vehicle collisions (data collected by the end of March, 2005, on-going) Fatalities develop ‘probabilistic pedestrian fatality model ’ Apply logistic regression technique Injuries: Korean accident statistics IHRA ratios (adults and child )

3. -3- The Korea Transport Institute 3 Target Population Estimation-Fatalities Total Fatalities Pedestrian Fatalities No. of Accident for Vehicle Type No. of Accident for Crash Speed Group No of Fatalities per Crash Speed Group Potential Decrease in Fatalities for Given HIC Standard Decrease in Fatalities for HIC Standard 175 persons Collision speed 40kph HIC 1000

4. -4- The Korea Transport Institute 4 Pedestrian Fatality Reduction Fatality reduction by regulation Total number of pedestrian fatalities Ratio of head injuries Ratio of vehicle types Ratio of collision speed less than a given CS threshold Pedestrian fatality probability with a given CS Pedestrian survival probability with a given HIC

5. -5- The Korea Transport Institute 5 Modeling of Pedestrian Fatality Logistic Regression

6. -6- The Korea Transport Institute 6 Example: 40kph, HIC 1000

7. -7- The Korea Transport Institute 7 Fatality Reduction Collision Speed HIC Fatality Reduction (persons)

8. -8- The Korea Transport Institute 8 Decrease in Serious Injuries - Children 348,184 Total Injuries 60,354 Total Pedestrian Injuries 12,071 Children Pedestrian Injuries 4,949 Head Injuries 3,259 Decrease in Serious Injuries Korean statistics Apply IHRA ratios

9. -9- The Korea Transport Institute 9 Decrease in Serious Injuries - Adults 348,184 Total Injuries 60,354 Total Pedestrian Injuries 48,282 Adults Pedestrian Injuries 14,002 Adults Head Injuries 13,036 Decrease in Serious Injuries Korean statistics Apply IHRA ratios

10. -10- The Korea Transport Institute 10 Benefit Estimation Decrease in Fatalities Decrease in Serious Injured Social Cost Per Fatalities (thousand won) 175 16,295 72,109 Social Cost Saving Per Serious Injured (thousand won) 20,962 Social Benefit Of Fatalities Decrease (million won) 12,619 341,576 Social Benefit Of Serious Injured Decrease (million won) Annual Total Benefit (million won) 358,377 $1=1,050won

11. -11- The Korea Transport Institute 11 Benefit Cost Ratio Additional Repair Cost Per Accident when Equipped with Pedestrian Protection System B/C Ratio \500,000 (Total 177,637,000,000) \700,000 (Total 248,691,800,000) \900,000 (Total \319,746,600,000) 1.93 1.37 1.07

12. -12- The Korea Transport Institute 12 Closing Remarks More extensive study with accident data is still on- going Attempts to develop a new way of estimating target population with statistical modeling approaches More statistically significant results are expected