1. BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005 Palaeo- distribution modelling: Using the pollen record to validate climate change impact assessments Peter Brewer

2. BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005 “ …we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be ‘committed to extinction’. ” Thomas et al. (2004) Nature. 427, 145-148.

3. BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005 Inga edulis – present day

4. BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005 Inga edulis – 2050s

5. BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005 Inga edulis – 2090s

6. BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005 Future modelling Locality Data Present Climate Climatic Preference or Niche Future Climate Future Prediction Model Building Model Projection

7. BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005 Future modelling assumption The climate layers used in the modelling process are the only influential variables that change through time

8. BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005 How can we test? We require independent locality data for a different time period

9. BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005

10. BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005 How can we test? We require independent locality data for a different time period Pollen record provides palaeo- locality data over a wide area and time frame.

11. BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005 Pollen data sites

12. BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005 Problems with using pollen Standard palynological problems include… Differential preservation Long distance dispersal Contamination Taxonomic resolution Only a few taxa are identifiable to a specific level

13. BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005

14. BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005

15. BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005

16. BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005

17. BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005 Study species TaxonPollenRecsGBIFRecsDistinct? Fagus sylvatica132424112Yes Pteridium aquilinum177729197Yes Menyanthes trifoliata193014694Yes Corylus avellana236825118Yes Plantago lanceolata347739638Yes Lycopodium clavatum41562916Yes Calluna vulgaris425828000+Yes Typha latifolia731315565Yes

18. BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005 Present Locality Data Present Climate Climatic Niche Palaeo Climate Palaeo Prediction Pollen Locality Data Palaeo Climate Climatic Niche Palaeo Prediction = Results Model Projection Model Building Derived from present data Derived from palaeo data

19. BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005 Present Climate Present Prediction Palaeo Locality Data Palaeo Climate Climatic Niche Present Prediction Present Locality Data Present Climate Climatic Niche = Results Model Projection Model Building Derived from present data Derived from palaeo data

20. BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005 Model runs = = ≠≠

21. BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005 The role of BDWorld Tools require different data formats Manual editing of data introduces mistakes Repeating experiment with different taxon and/or time period is laborious BDWorld provides an integrated environment where all data sources and tools can be compiled into one workflow

22. BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005 What data and tools are needed? Present locality data Palaeo-locality data Present and palaeo climate data Modelling algorithms Statistical analysis

23. BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005 What data and tools are needed? Present locality data= GBIF Palaeo-locality data= Pollen DB’s Present and palaeo climate data= Bristol Modelling algorithms= openModeller Statistical analysis= Custom

24. BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005 Workflow

25. BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005

26. BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005

27. BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005 ToolTriana/BDWorldComplete StringGenTrianaYes BufferTrianaYes DuplicatorTrianaYes ImageViewTrianaYes StringEditorTrianaYes StringViewerTrianaYes BDWCacheDatabaseBDWorldYes ComboBoxBuilderBDWorldYes GBIFDatabaseBDWorldYes GetLayersBDWorldYes GetLayersetBDWorldYes GetoMAlgorithmsBDWorldYes GetSpeciesListBDWorldYes GetTaxonBDWorldYes ImageConverterBDWorldYes PollenLocalitiesBDWorldYes RunOpenModellerBDWorldYes RunProjOpenModellerBDWorldYes SpeciesListToMapBDWorldYes StatsCompBDWorldNo

28. BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005 Work still to complete Finalise choice of statistical analysis Fix “big datasets” problem Run analyses!

29. BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005 Acknowledgements BBSRC BiodiversityWorld Team Michael Keith-Lucas