1. Comparison of simple and advanced regional models in industrial regulation Bernard Fisher Risk Forecasting and Decision Science Environment Agency Examples of ozone prediction methods: when to apply?

2. Difference field showing industrial plume contribution to daily maximum 1-hr O 3 concentration for 24-27 June 2001

3. Horizontal particle distribution 43 hours after the SO2 release simulated by the model HYSPLIT (left) and FLEXPART (right). The colour code gives the heights of the particles in metres

4. Spectrum of Models Part 1 Example of ozone generation for industrial plumes ComplexNAME Simpleenclosing curves

5. Ozone formed in NOx plume (1500 mid afternoon)  Background: 20 ppb O 3 and 50 ppb VOC  O 3 maximum reached 106 ppb in domain. constant wind direction and speed travel time in hours point source

6. Scatter plot of hourly NO 2 vs hourly NO x. hourly values with selected point sources. The background [O 3 ] used for the enclosing curves was based on model results with all point sources removed. NAME III enclosing curves, Models-3 and empirical curve comparisons

7. Spectrum of Models Part 2 Regional ozone ComplexCMAQEMEP Eulerian IDOP EMEP Lagrangian

8. Ozone from: A - Didcot A power station and B - Kingsnorth power station. Ozone creation downwind of A during daytime, while ozone depletion is dominant downwind of B. The background concentration of VOCs downwind of A is much higher than that downwind of source B.

9. The 24-h averaged O 3 excess (left) and the daily maximum 1-hr ozone excess (right) on every simulation day for the June 2001 episode. The black dot is the location of the VOC source for IDOP comparison

11. Application of the Integrated Downwind Ozone Production approach to the assessment of the environmental impact of four processes operating at a large industrial complex. Emissions quoted are illustrative only VOC species Emission IDOP Excess tonne hr-1 ppb per ozone ppb tonne/ hr Oil refining acetylene 0.10.09 0.01 benzene 0.1 0.27 0.03 toluene 0.1 4.10 0.41 Total 0.3 0.45

12. EMEP Lagrangian model The unit is 10ppb.h per 40% emission reduction dAOT40c/dENOx dAOT40c/dEVOC

13. EMEP Eulerian model country source-receptor relationships for 2003 meteorology and 2003 emissions are given. The changes in UK ozone for changes in UK emissions on UK ozone are: ozone AOT40f at 3m -377 ppb.h per 15% emission reduction for NOx 351 ppb.h per 15% emission reduction for VOC SOMO35 -103 ppb.d per 15% emission reduction for NOx 55 ppb.d per 15% emission reduction for VOC

14. Spectrum of Models Industrial plumes ComplexNAME Simpleenclosing curves Regional ozone ComplexCMAQEMEP Eulerian OSPMEMEP Lagrangian PTM SimpleIDOPRAINS urban deficits ?????