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Comparison of simple and advanced regional models in industrial regulation Bernard Fisher Risk Forecasting and Decision Science Environment Agency Examples.

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Presentation on theme: "Comparison of simple and advanced regional models in industrial regulation Bernard Fisher Risk Forecasting and Decision Science Environment Agency Examples."— Presentation transcript:

1 Comparison of simple and advanced regional models in industrial regulation Bernard Fisher Risk Forecasting and Decision Science Environment Agency Examples of ozone prediction methods: when to apply?

2 Difference field showing industrial plume contribution to daily maximum 1-hr O 3 concentration for 24-27 June 2001

3 Horizontal particle distribution 43 hours after the SO2 release simulated by the model HYSPLIT (left) and FLEXPART (right). The colour code gives the heights of the particles in metres

4 Spectrum of Models Part 1 Example of ozone generation for industrial plumes ComplexNAME Simpleenclosing curves

5 Ozone formed in NOx plume (1500 mid afternoon)  Background: 20 ppb O 3 and 50 ppb VOC  O 3 maximum reached 106 ppb in domain. constant wind direction and speed travel time in hours point source

6 Scatter plot of hourly NO 2 vs hourly NO x. hourly values with selected point sources. The background [O 3 ] used for the enclosing curves was based on model results with all point sources removed. NAME III enclosing curves, Models-3 and empirical curve comparisons

7 Spectrum of Models Part 2 Regional ozone ComplexCMAQEMEP Eulerian IDOP EMEP Lagrangian

8 Ozone from: A - Didcot A power station and B - Kingsnorth power station. Ozone creation downwind of A during daytime, while ozone depletion is dominant downwind of B. The background concentration of VOCs downwind of A is much higher than that downwind of source B.

9 The 24-h averaged O 3 excess (left) and the daily maximum 1-hr ozone excess (right) on every simulation day for the June 2001 episode. The black dot is the location of the VOC source for IDOP comparison

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11 Application of the Integrated Downwind Ozone Production approach to the assessment of the environmental impact of four processes operating at a large industrial complex. Emissions quoted are illustrative only VOC species Emission IDOP Excess tonne hr-1 ppb per ozone ppb tonne/ hr Oil refining acetylene 0.10.09 0.01 benzene 0.1 0.27 0.03 toluene 0.1 4.10 0.41 Total 0.3 0.45

12 EMEP Lagrangian model The unit is 10ppb.h per 40% emission reduction dAOT40c/dENOx dAOT40c/dEVOC

13 EMEP Eulerian model country source-receptor relationships for 2003 meteorology and 2003 emissions are given. The changes in UK ozone for changes in UK emissions on UK ozone are: ozone AOT40f at 3m -377 ppb.h per 15% emission reduction for NOx 351 ppb.h per 15% emission reduction for VOC SOMO35 -103 ppb.d per 15% emission reduction for NOx 55 ppb.d per 15% emission reduction for VOC

14 Spectrum of Models Industrial plumes ComplexNAME Simpleenclosing curves Regional ozone ComplexCMAQEMEP Eulerian OSPMEMEP Lagrangian PTM SimpleIDOPRAINS urban deficits ?????


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