1. Electoral Systems & N of Parties Moser

2. Basis §Duverger’s hypothesis on single-member plurality elections §Will it hold true in post-communism? l Russ, UK, Poland show that plurality can produce fragmented party systems l over time Poland & Hungary conform: Russ & UK not

3. Thesis §Electoral system effect mitigated by institutionalization §Explains failure of SMD systems to have expected effects §Weak insts of post-comm a unique chance to test strategic voting

4. Duverger modified §District magnitude found to be decisive §Cox argues SMP may fail to reduce vote for minor parties IF l voters are not short term instrumental l info not available on voter intentions l belief that a candidate will win l many voters who are indifferent on 2nd & lower choices

5. Mixed systems §Modelled after the German §Curbs proliferation? §But Russia & Coratia does not compensate parties l vote in direct and PR systems calculated separately §No post-comm state uses only SMP

7. Findings §Average n. effective parties = 7.7 l 2x average for consolidated democracies using PR §AV level of disproportionality 11.31 l More than 2x that for PR systems in consolidated l And higher than av of majoritarian systems

9. Voters §Rose found independent voters in Russia 78% cf l 13% in US and 8% in GB § N parties & level disprop underestimated by actual vote shares because voters and elites make strategic decisions favouring larger parties l should increase over time

10. Evidence? §Poland shows high adaptation l 1997 consolidated in electoral blocs l so fewer small parties left without rep §Russ & Lith show opposite trend l N parties in PR increased from 1 to 2 election §Explanation: institutionalization

11. Corroboration §Bucking trend in majoritarian system §UK: only 11% candidates nominated by parties §RUSS: Non-partisan candidates won 48% vote 1993 and 36% in 1995 l 52% winners in 1993 were independents l 34% winners in 1995 were independents

12. Conclusion §With extreme party underdevelopment §Electoral system promoting party labels (PR) will constrain n parties better than SMP if legal threshold is used

13. Pres election 26/3/2000 §Putin sscores 52.5% §Zhuganov 29.4% §Turnout 68.8%