1. 6 10 1 15 9 16 13 11 8 12 17 7 3 2 4 14 5 18

2. “If you don’t measure results, you can’t tell success from failure.”
PAF 101 Module 4, Lecture 2
“If you don’t measure results, you can’t tell success from failure.”
~ David Osborne & Ted Gaebler

3. Agenda Announcements Dale Carnegie Overview of Benchmarking
Speaker from the real world

4. Needed: Volunteers Food Activities
Interested? Contact Lexie from SNCC:

5. Interested students contact Erika Opgenorth: eopgenor@syr.edu

6. Competition Points Winners Losers Group # Points 14 24 2 21 12 19 1 1815 17 16 4 5 8 9 11 13 3 10 6 7
Winners
Losers
As of 10/28/2015

7. Course Calendar 10/28 WED BENCHMARKING 10/30 FRI SPEAKER: Nick Pirro
11/2
MON
SPEAKER—Erin Carhart
11/4
BRING EX. 8.2A ON A CLASS TOPIC; COMPETITON WORKSHOP
11/6
11/9
COMPETITION DEBRIEFING
11/11
MODULE #4 DUE; INTRODUCTION TO MODULE 5-PRINCE CHARTS

8. Dale Carnegie Presentations
Groups 3 and 4 send a student to the front to present a Dale Carnegie scenario
Groups will be rewarded 1-3 points depending on the strength of the scenario

9. Dale Carnegie Principles
Don't criticize, condemn or complain.
Give honest and sincere appreciation.
Arouse the other person an eager want.
Become genuinely interested in other people.
Remember that a man's name is to him the sweetest and most important sound in any language.
Be a good listener. Encourage others to talk about themselves.
Talk in the terms of the other man’s interest.
Make the other person feel important and do it sincerely.
Avoid arguments.
Never tell someone they are wrong
If you're wrong, admit it quickly and emphatically.
Begin in a friendly way.
Start with questions the other person will answer yes to.
Let the other person do the talking.
Let the other person feel the idea is his/hers.
Try honestly to see things from the other person's point of view.
Sympathize with the other person.
Appeal to noble motives.
Dramatize your ideas.
Throw down a challenge.
Begin with praise and honest appreciation.
Call attention to other people's mistakes indirectly.
Talk about your own mistakes first.
Ask questions instead of giving direct orders.
Let the other person save face.
Praise every improvement.
Give them a fine reputation to live up to
Encourage them by making their faults seem easy to correct.
Make the other person happy about doing what you suggest.

10. Overview of Benchmarking
8.1-Provide Historical Data on Societal Problem
8.2-Calculate Percent Change Using Excel
8.3-Decide on Years to Use in Your Benchmarks
8.4-Make a Baseline Forecast
8.5-Setting Your Benchmark
8.6-Use Benchmarks to Support Policy Proposal

11. What is a benchmark?
A measureable goal of your societal problem that you hope your policy will achieve

12. Benchmarking Example Great Bathroom Debate
72% Over the top of the roll
25% Under the roll
3% Not discernible
What’s the benchmark?

13. What to Benchmark The policy you indicated in Exercise 7.1
A measurable goal for the societal problem you policy seeks to improve.

14. Ex. 8.1: Historical Data 4 Years ending in most recent calendar year
One piece of real data at a minimum
Provide source for real data and rationale for estimates
Print out data source and circle the number
Refer to Figure 8.1 on pg. 88 in the Maxwell Manual
4 Years ending in most recent calendar year
5.2 in Mod 3 It might be worthwhile to add that the 4 yrs must end at anyone looking solely at the presentation from the PAF website without class notes won’t have this information…
Academic Years will end in e
Where Have You Already Done This?

15. Academic Years Example
Enough of this academic year has passed to estimate for the rest of it.
The last piece of historical data should be e
School Year
First Year Drop Out Rate
7.6%
8.3%
9.9% e
9.1%
A policy implemented in f could have benchmark data that year ( f) depending on the nature of the policy. Others will have to wait till f for their first benchmark.
Source: Office of Institutional Research & Assessment

16. Emphsize that the last historical calendar year must be 2013, not 2014e should only be estimated if the relevant data has yet to be released.

17. 8.2 Do Percent Change for the following Years:
1. Between the 1st and 2nd year
2. Between the 2nd and 3rd year
3. Between the 3rd and 4th year
Between the 1st and 4th year
Years don’t have to be consecutive but must have same intervals between them
HAND WRITTEN FOR 1-2 yr change

18. Ex. 8.2: How to Calculate Percent Change
Percent Change equals
[(new figure – old figure) ÷ old figure] x 100
Ex: 15.4% = [( )/123]*100

19. Without Excel between years 1 and 2 (8.2A)
With Excel for the chart (8.2B)
Here is what the print out will look like if you do it correctly:
-include that the change from year 1 to 2 is the only calculation that must be shown and typed out- just to clear up confusion from today’s class

20. Ex. 8.3: Deciding on the Years to Use Benchmarks
How many years will it take for the policy to have the intended impact?
Choose 3 years
Can be consecutive or not
Benchmark can be the same or not
Example: If your policy goes into effect in 2015, start with 2016.
-Education must be academic years.
-Explain it does not need to start next year, could be 3 to 4 years out.

21. Exercise 8.4: Baseline Forecast
Forecast if policy does not go into effect
Assume what has happened in past will continue (see exceptions on next slide)
If pattern has been consistent: use percent change or average percent change to make forecast
If historical data has inconsistent pattern: Follow ups and downs, keeping overall percentage change the same

22. Exercise 8.4: Baseline Forecast Cont’d
Consider conditions that will change the trend
Major outside event (ex: economic growth)
Trend approaching outer limit
Demographic factors
Cyclical pattern

23. Citrus Trendline
Figure 8.3- Historical and Forecast Graph for Number of Larcenies per 1,000 Students at Citrus University

24. Exercise 8.5: Choosing Benchmarks
Pay close attention to baseline forecast
Decide how powerful factors contributing to problem are
Estimate strength of government resources in implementing policy
Compare to similar areas with similar policies
Use authoritative sources

25. Exercise 8.5: Choosing Benchmarks Cont’d
Historical, Baseline forecast, and Benchmark Graph for Number of Larcenies at Citrus University per 1,000 students. Policy is training sessions for resident students.
Example:
Make Benchmark on GPA for when you graduate from SU
-Wants standard (Magna Cum Laude)
-comparison to siblings
-comparison to past performances
Following this format in Excel will produce the graph required in 8.6B

26. Exercise 8.6 Using your Benchmark to support your policy
Presentations to players should be short and to the point
Create a graph showing trendline, baseline and policy forecast
The sentence should be structured:
“This policy will reduce _______ by X%.”
-Give specific rate in the sentence between baseline and benchmark

27. The Trend Line Graph FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS IN CHAPTER 8!!!
Graphs in 8.4 and 8.6 – use the corresponding instructions from the Ch. 8 sections
Read directions carefully + pay attention to detail
= NO POINTS LOST 

28. Trend line/Baseline Graph
Historical, Baseline, and Benchmark Graph for Number of Larcenies at Citrus University per 1,000 Students
Should explain that e means estimate and f means forecast

29. Exercise 8.6c
Compare baseline forecast to policy forecast in specific detail
Example: If the policy works, the improvement over the baseline will be x%
BE REALISTIC
Give concrete example

30. Nick Pirro Friday’s Speaker Onondaga County Executive (1988 – 2008)
President of the New York State Association of Counties (2000 – 2001)
President- NP Associates, LLC
Come prepared to ask questions about your topic
You could use him as your player! 

31. 4 Next Class Complete all exercises in Ch. 7 NOW Because 8 is a bear
Module 4 due 11/11