1. Field trip 24 February 2005 Departs 0915 from Town Lodge

2. Exercise outline Extents Variables Response curves Region vs species

3. Ex1 Country specific Load amd.prac1.dbf, add event theme Load countries.shp Select country Theme -> Select by theme, export points within selected country to dbf file. Switch to R

4. Ex 1 (R) R background: why R? (incl on CD, user base, support, FREE) Package -> Load packages. Select MASS, somers2 and mgcv libraries Open AIACCfunctions.R Cntrl-A to select all, then press Run button Loads functions needed Open -> AIACCscript.R

5. Ex1 (R)…2 Explanation of script (on screen)

6. Select country specific species (species number in column of dbf file) RSA: 215, 213, 117, 229 DRC/Zaire/Congo: 106, 305 Kenya: 135, 166, 182, 242 Mozambique: 182, 349 Tanzania 156, 182, 336, 244 Burundi: 069 Namibia: 136, 317, 348 Zimbabwe: 348, 219 Zambia: 342, Uganda: 233 Malawi: 155, 108 Botswana: 130, 090 ALL; 161, 145, 99, 70

7. How to run script 1.On-screen demo: select and run relevant parts of script 2.Edit where needed 3.Start with 1 variable, run model. 4.Plot response curve 5.Predictions and evaluations (Evaluation output interpretation using AUC value; if model ok, then estimate cutoff) 6.Do binary transformation (apply cut-off to prob surface) 7.Export to dbf, and open in AV. 8.Create event theme, view results. 9.Save script with new name before step10. 10.Repeat steps 3 to 8 with 3 and 5 variables. 11.ID best model 12.Apply model to CC data.

8. Ex2 Use best model and repeat for different spatial extents.

9. Panel discussion Species vs communities 3 tiers: biome-equilibrium state species- dynamic state species Biome level analysis is first pass solution Non-unique climate space (no discreet boundaries) No coherent community shifts (time and space)