1. “ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Assessing Consequences Campaign Goal 2a Risk Technology Workshops

2. “ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Adverse Consequences Sources of adverse outcomes of a uncertain event or sequence of events –Economic Direct--NED (traditional benefit-cost values) Indirect--RED (impacts of event on regional and national economy, e.g., income, employment, competitiveness) –Human health and safety –Environment –Social, cultural, historical

3. “ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Adverse Consequences (cont.) –Failure to meet scheduled completion Disappointed sponsor Foregone benefits Increased cost –Failure to realize outcomes as intended The “as planned” outcome is not realized –Economic benefits –Environment outputs –Cost overruns 902 bust--reauthorization

4. “ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Opportunities for Gains Examples –Economic benefits realized –Economic costs avoided –Acres of wetlands restored –Lives saved

5. “ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Consequences Predictive models useful to quantify but not always necessary –Models problematic for some consequences Human health and safety Social and cultural Models and evaluation approaches frequently used to estimate adverse consequences for hazards and potential for gains.

6. “ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Economic Analysis Need to predict economic consequences part of risk Requirements, approach, and models depend on project purposes NED benefits from an Federal investment arise from –Reduction in costs –Increases in output

7. “ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions FDR Economic Models Flood Damage Reduction –HEC-FDA – engineering-economic model –Estimates stage-damage Inventory of damageable property Relationships describing water damage susceptibility –Incorporates limited risk of levee failure

8. “ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions FDR Economic Data Data requirements similar to feasibility study –Property inventory Value First floor elevation Location Occupancy type –Include infrastructure and vehicles –Depth-damage by occupancy type –Uncertainty

9. “ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Orleans Metro 5: Elevation - Flood Damage (mean values)

10. “ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Sometimes Ignored Direct Economic Consequence Infrastructure –Roads, Pavements & Bridges$1.05 to $1.58 bil. –Railroad Line Access$45 to $60 mil. –Airport Facilities$65 to $73 mil. –Electrical Distribution & Transmission Grid$1.1 to $1.4 bil. –Gas Distribution$490 to $515 mil. –Drainage, Sewage, & Potable Water Services$510 to $620 mil. –Telecommunications Networks$340 to $380 mil. –Public Transit Vehicles and Equipment$690 to $760 mil. –Waterborne Navigation$140 to $170 mil. Total$4.4 to 5.6 Billion

11. “ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Inland Navigation Economic Models Inland Navigation –WAM, TC/EQ, NavSym, LCLM, LockSym, ORNIM, NaSS (indevelopment) –Estimate NED values of improvements –Some explicitly incorporate multiple outage type probabilities Repair cost and time –Some consider locks in system –Problem of shipper response to unplanned outage Wait in queue, delay, divert, change mode Each has its own cost

12. “ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Inland Navigation Economic Data Data requirements similar to feasibility study –Traffic –Commodities –Types of vessels –Transportation cost savings –Frequency of traffic –Unplanned outage probability –Repair time –Repair cost –Post repair unplanned outage probability –Pre and post repair O&M –Post-rehabilitation probability of unplanned outage

13. “ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Coastal Navigation Economic Models Coastal Navigation –Risk issues typically channel dimensions related to sedimentation and navigation structures Jetties and breakwaters –HarborSym-traffic model No explicit channel dimension reliability –Individual application spreadsheets

14. “ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Coastal Navigation Economic Data Data requirements similar to feasibility study –Traffic –Commodities –Types of vessels –Transportation cost savings –Frequency of traffic –Channel dimensions probability –Structure failure –Dredging time –Dredging cost –Post repair unplanned outage probability –Pre and post repair O&M –Post-rehabilitation probability of unplanned outage

15. “ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Hydropower Economic Models Hydropower –Hydro-Repair –NWP model –Estimate costs of unplanned outages and benefits of major rehabilitation in life-cycle framework

16. “ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Hydropower Economic Data Data requirements similar to feasibility study –Energy value –Capacity value –Existing and future unplanned outage probability –Repair cost and time –Post repair unplanned outage probability –Pre and post repair O&M –Rehabilitation costs –Post-rehabilitation probability of unplanned outage

17. “ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Other Economic Consequence Categories Recreation M&I Water supply Agricultural water supply

18. “ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Take Away on Quantifying NED Economic Consequences Many models exist Theory well developed Some models have capability to include uncertainty in variable and parameters –Allows quantifying uncertainty in outcomes

19. “ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Indirect Economic Consequences Objective –Estimate local/regional economic impacts of adverse consequences from a multi-regional national economic and demographic model accounting for: Disruptions to lives and livelihoods Inherent resiliencies in economy –Examine changes in structure of regional economy from pre-event levels Time paths of recovery Location decisions by households and businesses

20. “ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Example of Indirect Economic Consequences from Katrina Approach –Summary statistics examine general market outcomes Population recovery Capital formation Labor market recovery Katrina

21. “ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Example from Katrina: Forecast for New Orleans 5-parish region: Employment (1,000’ s ) Katrina

22. “ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions

23. “ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Health and Safety Consequences Human Health Describe full range of specific exposures to source of risk Describe potential physical & mental health effects Describe other health effects that can be expected in near or longer term based on empirical studies

24. “ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Potential Loss of Life Need predictive modeling of LOL Used extensively in dam safety evaluations Corps is modeling for dam and levee safety programs Model in development –LIFESim--a spatially distributed, dynamic simulation model with resolution of population at census block level

25. “ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions USACE Life Loss Estimation Methods Dam Specific –Modified USBR Method Screening - Minimal resource requirement –HEC-FIA Screening validation, issue evaluation and periodic assessments - Moderate resource requirement –LifeSim Support modification studies – Large resource requirement Levee Specific –Simplified Jonkman’s Method Screening - Minimal resource requirement Scalable methods – effort from one applicable to more rigorous method

26. “ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Life Loss Estimation – Basic Approach Initial distribution of people Redistribution of people –Warning and response –Evacuation potential –Shelter provided by final location Flood characteristics –Arrival time, depth, velocity, rate-of-rise

27. “ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Example Results from Katrina: Stage-Potential Fatalities (Mean & 90% CI) for St. Bernard Parish Sub-basin 1

28. “ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Environmental Consequences Predict adverse or beneficial consequences to ecological resources Focus on ecological resource condition as indicators of environmental condition and consequences –Riparian habitats –Fisheries –Wildlife –Pest species –Special status species—threatened and endangered

29. “ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions MAXIMUM LEAD CONCENTRATIONS ADDED TO SEDIMENTS BY BASELINE WATER PUMPING 1.4 mg/kg 7.0 mg/kg MAXIMUM LEAD CONCENTRATIONS ADDED TO SEDIMENTS BY ACTUAL WATER PUMPING CONTAMINANTS MODEL RESULTS FOR LEAD IN SEDIMENTS SEDIMENT MEAN Pre-Katrina=17.5 mg/kg Post katrina=25.3mg/kg

30. “ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Restoration Failure

31. “ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Social, Cultural and Historic Consequences Prediction of adverse consequence difficult Data Demographic Data Qualitative Data –Timeframes –Immediately Before Event –Short-term –Long-term Scope –Locally Direct impact – Regionally Surrounding area – Nationally for large events

32. “ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Social, Cultural and Historic Consequences Methodology –Units of Analysis Neighborhoods Communities Social Institutions (schools, health care) – Data Existing Sources Observational Data to Support short-term and long- term estimates

33. “ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Example from Katrina: Social, Cultural and Historic Consequences Parish2004 March ’06 (estimate) Jan ’08 (estimate) Jefferson 449,288368,435444,655 Orleans 444,515181,400336,644 Plaquemines 26, 75717,56721,276 St Bernard 67,22914,01537,722 St Charles 50,07351,31451,547 St Tammany 191,268206,204228,456 Total 1,229,130838,9351,120,300 Population Estimates