1. Vulnerability to climate change and natural disasters of coastal cities of North Africa
Osama Hamad, The World Bank, 2010

2. Main urban and climate issues
MENA coastal cities home to over 60m, 100m by 2030, or 1/3 of all urban pop.
Region is second most affected by SLR, with high water stress already present
Increasing temperatures (2C), decreasing precipitation and runoff expected by 2030
Coastal cities are among the largest and most vulnerable urban agglomerations

3. Alexandria, Casablanca, Tunis
3-year study to a) assess vulnerability to climate
change and natural disasters; and b) prepare
adaptation action plans for greater urban resilience
$1m co-financed by NTF-PSI for the three cities,
by TFESSD for Bouregreg in Morocco, by GFDRR
for DRM, and by the WB’s administrative budget

4. Milestones Stakeholders
June 2008: Project WB approval, funding
June 2009: start of technical consultancy
June 2010: vulnerability assessments completed
Dec. 2010: action plans to be completed
June 2011: Final WB report to be published
Central and local Governments
Meteo institutes, utility companies, others
Egis BCEOM consulting consortium
Arab Academy
CMI Marseille
European Space Agency

5. Threat 1. SLR, Coastal Erosion and Storm Surges
Manifest signs in all cities of SLR, erosion
Uncertainty as to precise future SLR
Loss of beach-front threatening economy, neighborhoods
Increasing episodes of storm surges

6. Threat 2: Urban Flooding
Increasing frequency, intensity of urban floods in some cities
Huge losses to urban economies, lives
Drainage systems overwhelmed
Lethal combination with storm surges

7. Threat 3: Water scarcity
Decreasing rainfall causing watersheds to reduce supply
Increasing urban consumer demand
Water-tables threatened by salinization, SLR
Nile flow at risk of profound mid-term changes

8. Threat 4: Ambient temperature
Elevated impacts on public health via heat waves mortality
Increasing ambient temperatures causing intense heat island
Worsening air pollution

9. Threat 5: Earthquakes, Tsunamis
Devastating episodes during last decade in Morocco and Tunisia
All cities located in earthquake-prone areas
Record of past tsunamis: Casablanca and Alexandria
Probabilistic risk assessment required

10. Adaptation 1: Urban Planning
All cities populations to expand by 2030:
* Tunis by 40%,
* Casablanca by 60%
* Alexandria by 70%
Areas at high risk will be identified, avoided
Adaptation actions to be proposed for other areas

11. Adaptation 2: Infrastructure
Coastal marine defenses
Harbor structures and logistics platforms
Waste water treatment, power plants
Drainage systems and pumping stations
Built environment retrofitting

12. Adaptation 3: Preparedness
Early warning systems
Civil protection readiness
Emergency response and evacuation plans
Public information and awareness
Institutional coordination