1. Climate Change Impacts in Pennsylvania Brent Yarnal Department of Geography Penn State University

2. Overview Supporting science Present & future climate context Key climate impacts Some affected sectors

3. www.northeastclimateimpacts.org/pa October 2008 2000 US National Assessment of Climate Change Impacts Union of Concerned Scientists http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v14/n3/

4. Climate is changing across PA In the 20 th century:  Temperature increased 0.5 ° F  Rainfall increased 5-20% Since 1970:  Temperature increased ~0.15 ° F per decade  Annual days over 90 ° F increased  Winter snowpack decreased (c) Brian A. Morganti / www.stormeffects.com

5. Source: IPCC 2001 HIGHER A1FI (940 ppm) LOWER B1 (550 ppm) Further warming depends on emissions

6. Current global emissions 2006 2005 2007

7. Key climate changes Higher temperatures More extreme heat More precipitation More severe storms More floods More droughts

8. 2010-20392040-20692070-2099 Temperature change above 1961-1990 average Projected temperature changes for PA

9. Changes in average summer heat index

11. In the next several decades:  Doubling in days over 90°F in southern PA By mid-century:  50 days per year over 90°F in southern PA By late century :  Entire summer with highs over 90°F in southern PA Days with extreme heat

12. Precipitation 20 th century  Annual average precipitation rose 15% (6 inches) Future projections  Trend continues under either emission scenario Spring rainfall under the higher-emissions scenario

13. Hotter summers mean more evaporation, less soil moisture Droughts projected every 1-2 years in many areas Summer drought

14. Key sectors affected by climate change Agriculture Forestry Water & water resources Ecosystems Human health Recreation

15. New opportunities New risks & costs iStockphoto.com/Kalulu Agriculture & climate change

16. iStockphoto.com/lissart ©iStockphoto.com/Bronwyn8 Crops vulnerable to rising temperature iStockphoto.com/claylib

17. USDA NRCS Milk production declines in higher- emissions future

18. Forests Forests migrate Productivity increases

19. Dominant forest types for a doubling of CO 2

20. Black Cherry Lower emissions: 50% of habitat lost Higher emissions: 80% of habitat lost

21. Ecosystems Weakened ecosystems at risk Ecosystem functions impaired Biodiversity decrease

22. Bird habitat 25% reductions in forest habitat for  Ruffed grouse  American goldfinch  White throated sparrow iStockphoto.com/Flatcoater iStockphoto.com/BirdImages Jupiter Images

23. Water & water resources Uncertain water quantity Seasonal shift in streamflow Increased intense rainfall Decreased water quality

24. Projected changes in Susquehanna River flow

25. Human health Heat mortality increase Water-borne disease increase Vector-borne disease increase

26. Extreme heat – Harrisburg

27. Pollen allergens Higher temperatures + higher CO 2 levels  more pollen allergen production American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology Jupiter Images

28. Tony Tremblay James Estrin/The New York Times/Redux Air quality

29. Impacts on winter recreation Loss of ski industry Loss of snowmobiling iStockphoto.com/MentalArt

30. Snow cover Geoff Kuchera

31. Snowmobiling iStockphoto.com/N8K