1. Burden of disease from rising coal emissions in Thailand Shannon Koplitz 1, Daniel Jacob 1, Lauri Myllyvirta 2, Melissa Sulprizio 1 1 Harvard University 2 Greenpeace International

2. Coal emissions are harmful to human health SO 2 and NO x from power plants oxidize in the atmosphere to form particulate matter (PM). NO x can also increase ozone concentrations. Both PM and ozone lead to premature mortality in people. SO 2 NO x Fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) Ozone (O 3 ) Image sources: cliparts.co; www.envpl.ipb.ac.rs; Jupiterimages Corporation; www.intechopen.com/source/html/42164/media/image4.png Respiratory and cardiovascular disease

3. Coal emissions declining in the U.S. due to public health concern Coal emissions in many Asian countries are currently following the same upwards trajectory that has taken decades to reverse in the U.S. and Europe. Klimont et al., 2013 Difference in SO 2 emissions (2010 – 2005)

4. Coal use is expanding rapidly in Southeast Asia There are currently more than 400 coal plants scheduled for development in Asia outside China and India. Many of these plants are already under construction. Sources: Platts WEPP Database, Coalswarm.org Operating Projected Coal power plant locations by 2030

5. 1.Calculate surface PM and ozone concentrations due to both present day and estimated 2030 coal emissions in East and Southeast Asia (excluding emissions from China and India). 1.Estimate the human health burden of this rising coal pollution. Project Objectives Approach 1.Attribute changes in PM and ozone concentrations due to both present day (2011) and projected 2030 coal emissions using GEOS-Chem 1.Apply concentration-response relationships from the literature (Krewski et al., 2009; Anenberg et al., 2010) to estimate the premature mortality due to coal-related pollution.

6. Power plant emissions vary widely by facility Plant specific factors such as the grade of coal being combusted or the emission control technologies in place affect the magnitude and type of emissions coming from each individual coal fired power plant. Type of coal Emission control technologies Boiler type Images: Ciris Energy; AECOM Process Technologies; dieselnet.com; energy-models.com/boilers Flue gas desulferization (SO 2 ) Selective catalytic reduction (NO x ) Fluidized Bed Combustion (FBC) Stoker

7. We develop a detailed inventory of the currently operating fleet Japan S. Korea Taiwan Philippines Vietnam Myanmar Malaysia Indonesia Thailand ChinaIndiaU.S. Countries in this work Tg yr -1 Coal SO 2 Emissions (Present Day ~2011) Lu et al., 2011; EPA Annual ARP report 2013 Emissions of SO 2 and NO x from coal plants are currently highest in Indonesia, followed by Thailand and Japan.

8. Coal emissions likely to surpass U.S. levels by 2030 If all projected plants become operational, Asian coal emissions of SO 2 and NO x could triple by 2030. Emissions in Thailand are projected to increase by 40%. Japan S. Korea Taiwan Philippines Vietnam Myanmar Malaysia Indonesia Thailand ChinaIndiaU.S. Countries in this work Tg yr -1 Lu et al., 2011; EPA Annual ARP report 2013 Coal SO 2 Emissions Increase by 2030 2011

9. GEOS-Chem simulates the concentrations of pollutants GEOS-Chem is a global 3-D chemical transport model used by many research groups around the world to advance our understanding of atmospheric composition and to answer policy relevant questions pertaining to air quality and climate change. Global 3-D CTM Emission inventories Assimilated meteorology Pollutant concentrations

10. 1.Calculate surface PM and ozone concentrations due to both present day and estimated 2030 coal emissions in East and Southeast Asia (excluding emissions from China and India). 1.Estimate the human health burden of this rising coal pollution. Project Objectives Approach 1.Attribute changes in PM and ozone concentrations due to both present day (2011) and projected 2030 coal emissions using GEOS-Chem 1.Apply concentration-response relationships from the literature (Krewski et al., 2009; Anenberg et al., 2010) to estimate the premature mortality due to coal-related pollution.

11. Coal pollution correlates with populated areas PM 2.5 enhancements are highest near Bangkok and Chiang Mai. Ozone enhancements exceed 1 ppb over much of Thailand and neighboring countries. ΔPM 2.5 from 2030 Thailand Coal μg m -3 ΔOzone from 2030 Thailand Coal ppb

12. 1.Calculate surface PM and ozone concentrations due to both present day and estimated 2030 coal emissions in East and Southeast Asia (excluding emissions from China and India). 1.Estimate the human health burden of this rising coal pollution. Project Objectives Approach 1.Attribute changes in PM and ozone concentrations due to both present day (2011) and projected 2030 coal emissions using GEOS-Chem 1.Apply concentration-response relationships from the literature (Krewski et al., 2009; Anenberg et al., 2010) to estimate the premature mortality due to coal-related pollution.

13. Exposure depends on both pollution levels and population density By 2030, we estimate 3080 excess deaths from PM 2.5 and 110 excess deaths from ozone in Thailand due to coal emissions. 2010 Population Map population ΔPM 2.5 from 2030 Thailand Coal μg m -3 Total Exposure in 2030 (ΔPM 2.5 x Population)

14. Summary Coal fired power plant emissions of SO 2 and NO x form particulate matter and ozone which are detrimental to human health. Without abatement, these projected emissions could lead to more than 3,000 excess deaths in Thailand every year. Please email skoplitz@fas.harvard.edu for more information about this work. Thank you for listening!skoplitz@fas.harvard.edu