1. Is the seat belt sign illuminated? The Budget and the public sector IPS/ IPANZ series John Yeabsley NZIER June 2009

2. 2 Where is this going - key points ► Back to basics – what would a first budget do? ► What did you expect at this time? ► Public sector flexibility – contradiction in terms? ► What’s likely to be ahead?

3. 3 First budgets … ► Work within the economic situation ► Show what the new government means ► Adjust the priorities

4. 4 What’s happening?

5. 5 What’s pushing up the curve?

6. 6 Having your own way?

7. 7 So what do we take from these? ► Relatively limited shifts in spending patterns – so stand by… ► Outlook for big ticket items (Health & Education) seems very tight – knock ons coming ► Overall, no sign budget position going to change quickly – value for money rules

8. 8 Implications ► All agencies need to be more oriented to their “value add” – for the government ► All agencies need to tune their flexibility – have had ups and downs over last 20 years ► Management needs to look through this stress & build quality – focus on people both at front line & back office

9. 9 But: looking ahead in the labour market