1. Workpackage 2: Review and quantitative evaluation of the effectiveness of interventions University of Reading

2. Contributors UREAD: 22 MM UNIBO: 20 MM UGENT: 14 MM AU: 6 MM JUMC: 2 MM INRAN: 2 MM EUFIC: 2 MM TOTAL: 68 MM

3. Objectives Broad objective: Quantitatively analyse the efficacy of a set of past interventions to indicate robustly what has worked in the past. Specific objectives: Use secondary data and statistical methods to establish the effectiveness of interventions based upon models from economics and psychology. Illustrate state-of-the art methodologies and draw methodological lessons for dietary intervention analysis Update conclusions from WP1 regarding what interventions have worked and what have not in the past

4. General approach Conditional on data availability, the goal is to perform intervention analysis based on 3 stages: (i) The impact of interventions on consumer attitudes, behaviour and diets (ii) The impact of changes in diets on obesity and health (iii) The value attached by society to these changes, i.e. life years gained, cost savings and QALYs

5. Tasks Task 1: Assemble and prepare national datasets (task coordinator UREAD). Task 2: Examine effects of interventions in the short and long terms on consumer attitudes, knowledge, values, social norms, efficacy and behavioural intentions. (UGENT). Task 3: Assess effects of interventions in the short and long terms on food consumption and health (UNIBO) Task 4: Cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analysis (UREAD).

6. Deliverables D2.1Results of an evaluation of effects of interventions in the short and long terms on consumer attitudes, knowledge, values, social norms, efficacy and behavioural intentions (Month 30) D2.2 Results of an evaluation of effects of interventions in the short and long terms on food consumption and health (Month 30) D2.3 Results of an evaluation of cost effectiveness and cost utility of interventions in the short and long terms (Month 30)

7. Timing and Milestones M2.1 Cleaned and prepared datasets M2.2 Decisions on nature and scope of quantitative models M2.3 Completion of case study evaluations

8. Analysis of policy effects on attitudes and intentions Blend of social cognitive theories (eg. theory of planned behaviour) and economics Latent variable empirical models (eg. structural equation modelling) Data scarcity a possible problem, since required data tend to be purposively, rather than routinely collected. However, there is more data than readily apparent – eg. UK Food Standards Agency’s annual consumer attitudes survey (2000-2009 available)

9. Analysis of policy effects on food consumption Econometric models of policy evaluation. Demand models with policy variables, eg., Douarin & Di Falco’s (2008) evaluation of the UK 5-a-day campaign Even where data are scare, eg. cross- sectional data before and after policy introduction, carefully specifed and interpreted ‘counterfactual’ analysis may be possible.

10. Cost-effectiveness & cost-utility Previous analysis for nutritional interventions quite limited Source: Dalziel & Segal, 2007

11. Cost-effectiveness & cost-utility Clinical trial data likely to be useful Probably make prudent (yet liberal!) use of ‘benefit transfer’ principles

12. Key Message ‘Scouting’ in this year for appropriate data will be very important for WP2 although it only starts next year!