1. CLIMATE2030: A Japanese Project for Decadal Climate Prediction Masahide Kimoto Center for Climate System Research University of Tokyo and SPAM Team SPAM

2. IPCC AR4 SPM Climate Projection by Computer Models

3. The 2nd phase of Japanese global warming project on the Earth Simulator (Kakushin Program; 2007-2012) Team 1: Long-term (FRCGC/NIES/CCSR) Tokioka –MIROC-ESM (T42L80+1.0x1.4L44+carbon cycle+aerosols+chemistry) –NICAM global CSRM, EMIC for uncertainty –physics ensemble –detailed dyn veg –crop yields, high tides Team 2: Near-term (CCSR/NIES/FRCGC) Kimoto –MIROC AOGCM (T213AGCM+1/4x1/6OGCM+aerosols; medres(T85) as well) –Initialization w/ obs. + 10-member ensemble –Flood/drought risk assessment –Regionally hi-res OGCM Team 3: Hi-res time-slice (MRI/JMA) Kitoh –20km AGCM + 1km nested regional model near Japan –Impact on hydrology, flood risk assessment, Typhoons # Teams 1-3 all consist of Modelling/Uncertainty/Impact study components # ES will be upgraded in March 2009 (2.x times faster)

4. Ensemble hindcast/forecast Assimilation/Initialization A near-term prediction up to 2030 with a high- resolution coupled AOGCM –60km Atmos + 20x30km Ocean –w/ updated cloud PDF scheme, PBL, etc –advanced aerosol/chemistry Estimate of uncertainty due to initial conditions –10(?)-member ensemble –For impact applications water risk assessment system impacts on marine ecosystems etc. Test run w/ 20km AOGCM (in 2011) 110km mesh model 60km mesh model 5-min topography Japanese CLIMATE 2030 Project

5. Near-Term Projection: Issues Hawkins and Sutton (2008) Models good enough? Resolution? Ensembles? Initialization? How? Drift? Decadal predictability? Chemistry? Aerosols? Volcanoes?

6. Decadal Predictability for Natural Modes? Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)

7. SPAM S ystem for P rediction and A ssimilation by M IROC Coupled climate model MIROC Data Assimilation Prediction Products Assimilation/ Initialization Data

8. Impact assessment Hirabayashi et al. (2006)

9. Externally forced climate change (20 th Century Reproduction Experiment w/o Data Assimilation) Global mean SAT anomaly ( o C) Year Full forcing (Natual + Anthropogenic) Global mean SAT anomaly ( o C) Year Anthropogenic forcing Only Global mean SAT anomaly ( o C) Year Natural forcing Only (Solar + Volcano) Global mean SAT anomaly ( o C) Year No forcing Nozawa et al. (2005)

10. Predictability of PDO: Impact of initialization Time series projected on to simulated PDO 1970 1975 1980 SST EOF1 20C3M OBS Observation Hindcast & spread 1970 1975 1980 Uninitialized 20C experiment Initialized hindcast (Initial: 1970) 4 2 0 -2 -4 4 2 0 -2 -4 Mochizuki et al. (2009, submitted)

11. Mochizuki et al. (2009) Decadal Predictability? Assimilation vs. Hindcasts w/ & w/o initialization SPAM : S ystem for P rediction and A ssimilation by M IROC Global SATPDO Difference between Assimilated and Not Assimilated FCST 2006-2010

12. Reevaluation of historical upper-ocean heat content  Depth correction for historical XBT & MBT (Ishii and Kimoto, 2009) V6.2: Old analysis V6.7: New Analysis MIROC: medres 20C3M & spread Global heat content(0-700m)

13. Impacts of XBT ー DBC: PDO without XBT-DBC with XBT-DBC Observation Predic. (1  ) Projection onto 20C3M EOF1 EOF1 XBT depth correction improved climatology & initial condition