1. Ecological Economics of Energy: The Potential for a Transition to Renewables CANUSSEE Conference 2015, Vancouver, Canada Jonathan M. Harris http://ase.tufts.edu/gdae Copyright © 2015 Jonathan M. Harris

3. Can Renewable Energy Provide a Solution to Climate Change? Long-term link between economic growth and carbon emissions Need to “decouple” economic activity from carbon emissions Micro issues: Market pricing and policy actions determine speed of transition Macro issues: An end to growth, or a new kind of energy economy? Or both?

4. Global Energy Consumption by Source, 2012 Source: International Energy Agency (IEA 2013 )

5. Availability of Global Renewable Energy Source: Jacobson and Delucchi (2011); U.S. Energy Information Administration; Stanford Engineering News, http://engineering.stanford.edu/news/wind-could-meet-many-times-world- total-power-demand-2030-researchers-say Energy Source Total Global Availability (trillion watts) Availability in Likely- Developable Locations (trillion watts) Wind170040 – 85 Wave> 2.70.5 Geothermal450.07 – 0.14 Hydroelectric1.91.6 Tidal3.70.02 Solar photovoltaic6500340 Concentrated solar power4600240 Total global energy use in 2006: 15.8 Trillion Watts

6. Infrastructure Requirements for Supplying All Global Energy in 2030 from Renewable Sources Source: Jacobson and Delucchi (2011). Energy Source Percent of 2030 Global Power Supply Number of Plants/Devices Needed Worldwide Wind turbines503,800,000 Wave power plants1720,000 Geothermal plants45,350 Hydroelectric plants4900 Tidal turbines1490,000 Rooftop solar PV systems61.7 billion Solar PV power plants1440,000 Concentrated solar power plants 2049,000 TOTAL100 Land requirement: about 2% of total global land area. (Can be combined with agricultural uses)

7. Global Potential for Energy Efficiency Source: Blok et al. (2008) Global status report on energy efficiency 2008. Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Partnerships. www.reeep.orgwww.reeep.org

8. Source: International Energy Agency, 2011. Projected 2035 Global Energy Demand, by Source

9. Growth of Solar PV and Wind Installations (2003-2012) Source: Worldwatch Institute (2014).

10. Sources: http://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-v8-abstract/ http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/electricity_generation.cfm

11. Externality Cost of Various Electricity Generating Methods, European Union Source: Owen, A. D. 2006. "Renewable energy: externality costs as market barriers." Energy Policy 34: 632-642.

12. Solar Energy Price Decreases, 1998-2013 Source: Barbose, G., S. Weaver and N. Darghouth. 2014. Tracking the Sun VII: an historical summary of the installed price of photovoltaics in the United States from 1998 to 2013. SunShot Initiative, U.S. Department of Energy

13. Projected further decreases in solar costs, 2015 - 2040 Source: Feldman et al 2014. Photovoltaic System Pricing Trends: historical, recent, and near-term projections. U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative: http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy14osti/62558.pdfhttp://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy14osti/62558.pdf

14. Source: Solar Energy Industries Association, 2014. “Solar Energy Facts: 2014 Year in Review”. http://www.seia.org/sites/default/files/Q4%202014%20SMI%20Fact%20Sheet.pdf

15. Declining Energy Intensity in Industrial Economies, 1991-2008 Source: US Energy Information Administration (EIA), 2011. Energy Intensity- Btu per Year 2005 U.S. Dollars (1991 base year) Year

16. Source: EIA 2013.Source: EIA 2012.

17. 90 units carbon-based 100 units carbon-based 2015 2035 Renewables 10 units Renewables 20 units 100 units total 120 units total ~1% p.a. growth in energy demand Copyright © 2015 Jonathan M. Harris Business as Usual Scenario

18. 90 units carbon-based 60 units carbon-based 2015 2035 10 units Renewables 20 units 100 units total 80 units total ~1% p.a. decline in energy demand Copyright © 2015 Jonathan M. Harris Based on modest investment in services, efficiency, renewables, with no loss in employment (probably a gain) Services, Efficiency, & Renewables Scenario

19. Source: US Department of Energy, 2013 ACCESSED AT: http://www.eia.doe.gov Decline since 2007: 12%

20. Reduction in population growth rates and in GDP growth rates could accentuate this trend, and will be necessary to meet carbon targets, but there is a lot of scope for energy and carbon intensity reduction. Although 2012 was unusual, it shows the pattern of declining emissions: growth in population and per capita output were outweighed by decreases in energy intensity (energy use per dollar of GDP) and carbon intensity (carbon emissions per unit of energy use). CARBON INTENSITY PERCENT CHANGES IN EMISSIONS DRIVERS, 2012 ENERGY INTENSITY PER CAPITA OUTPUT POPULATION percent change

21. A good trend, but needs continuing…. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2009 - 2013 ARRA2009 denotes the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009.

22. Public Energy R&D Investment Source: International Energy Agency, 2014.

23. Policies for the Renewable Energy Transition Subsidy reform: eliminate fossil fuel subsidies Pigovian tax on externalities including carbon Energy research and development Feed-in tariffs Subsidies, including favorable tax provisions and loan terms Renewable energy targets Efficiency standards and labelling Financing mechanisms with zero up-front costs