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Deutscher Wetterdienst Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE Ulrich Damrath (with contributions by Ulrich Pflüger) COSMO GM Rome 2011.

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Presentation on theme: "Deutscher Wetterdienst Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE Ulrich Damrath (with contributions by Ulrich Pflüger) COSMO GM Rome 2011."— Presentation transcript:

1 Deutscher Wetterdienst Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE Ulrich Damrath (with contributions by Ulrich Pflüger) COSMO GM Rome 2011

2 Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011 General outlook  Upper air verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE  Fuzzy verification  COSI @ DWD

3 Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011 error structure in upper tropo- sphere and above smoother, reduced error amplitude C-EU verification against radiosondes since July 2010: analysis in lower troposphere warmer  Temperature BIAS, 00 UTC RK, new vertical coord., new reference atm. V=48 V=24 V=00 summer: troposphere always too warm

4 Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011 since July 2010: reduced bias at height of tropopause and above V=00 V=48 V=24 C-EU verification against radiosondes  Geopotential BIAS, 00 UTC (and 12 UTC) RK, new vertical coord.,, new reference atm.

5 Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011 since July 2010: reduced rmse at height of tropopause and above V=00 V=48 V=24 C-EU verification against radiosondes  Geopotential RMSE, 00 UTC (and 12 UTC) RK, new vertical coord.,, new reference atm.

6 Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011 C-EU verification against radiosondes  Wind speed, RMSE 00 UTC V=48 Since July 2010: reduced RMSE of wind speed in upper troposhere RK, new vertical coord., new reference atm. wind speed, RMSE Dec 2010/2009 solid: 2010 dashed: 2009 48 h 24 h00 h

7 Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011 C-DE verification against radiosondes lower troposphere in summer clearly too warm  Temperature BIAS 00 UTC modifications to mixing length and subgrid scale cloud scheme V=00 V=18 no change compared to years before

8 Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011 V=00 V=12 C-DE verification against radiosondes  Temperature BIAS 12 UTC modifications to mixing length and subgrid scale cloud scheme boandary layer and lower troposphere too warm especially in summer

9 Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011 V=12 boandary layer and lower troposhere too dry, above too wet  00 UTC  12 UTC pos. bias in rel. humidity decreases in 2011 C-DE verification against radiosondes  Rel. humidity BIAS modifications to mixing length and subgrid scale cloud scheme pos. bias in rel. humidity slight increase in spr/sum 2011

10 Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011 Results of verification against radiosondes 2010/2011  COSMO-EU:  amplitude of temperature bias between troposphere and above has been reduced  reduced bias and rmse of gepotential at tropopause and above  slightly reduced error in wind speed at upper troposphere  COSMO-DE:  already since 2009 boundary layer too warm (except analysis 00 UTC)  slighty increased humidity bias at 00 UTC but reduced bias at 12 UTC  Modification of radiosonde measurements lead also to the change of RH bias (better results for noon, worse for midnight)

11 Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011 Outlook for fuzzy verification  Motivation for fuzzy verification  State at DWD (until May 2011)  Are the properties of COSMO 2 compared to COSMO 7 other than the properties of CDE compared to CEU?  Quality of CEU- and CDE-forecasts for different regions  Current application of Fuzzy-methods  Operational implementiation

12 Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011 Traditional point-to-point verification for CEU and CDE

13 Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011 Fuzzy-Verification in DWD till May 2011

14 Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011 ahhdfkfflflflflflfkfkfkjdjdddnbdnnnd Weusthoff, Tanja, Felix Ament, Marco Arpagaus, Mathias W. Rotach, 2010: Assessing the Benefits of Convection-Permitting Models by Neighborhood Verification: Examples from MAP D-PHASE. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 3418–3433. 182.0 92.4 47.6 25.2 14.0 8.4 2.8 mm/12 h

15 Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011 Configuration of precipitation verification with FUZZY- methods  Up to May 2011:  Observation data: Radar data prepared by assimilation scheme  Model data: GME-, CEU- and CDE-GRIBS interpolated to CDE-grid (nearest gridpoint)  Run: 00 UTC  Forecast times: GME, CEU: 06-18, 06-30, CDE: 06-18 hours  Verification area: part of CDE that is covered by radar data  Since May 2011:  Observation data as before, modell data: CEU- and CDE-GRIBS interpolated to CDE-grid (nearest gridpoint)  Run: 00, 03, 06, 09, 12, 15, 18, 21  Forecast times: 01-04, 03-06, 06-12, 12-15, 15-18, 18-21 hours  Verification aread : CDE, Northern part of Germany, Southern part of Germany, North- Western part of Germany, North-Eastern part of Germany, South-Western part of Germany, South-Eastern part of Germany

16 Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011 Application of Fuzzy-methods  Calculation of all Fuzzy-scores with the IDL-Program by Beth Ebert.  Monthly evaluation of data for Fractions Skill Score and Upscaling ETS  Generation of results for  8 (forecast runs)  * 7 (forecast intervals)  * 3 (2 models and one difference)  * 7 (regions)  * 2 (scores) --------------------------------------------- 2352 Plots per time interval  Necessity to have a fast access to the data

17 Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011 Some examples: ETS upscaling July 2011, Run: 00 UTC, forecast time 01-04 hours

18 Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011 Some examples : FSS July 2011, Run: 00 UTC, forecast time 01-04 hours

19 Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011 Some examples : ETS upscaling July 2011, Run: 00 UTC, forecast time 12-15 hours

20 Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011 Some examples : FSS July 2011, Run: 00 UTC, forecast time 12-15 hours

21 Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011 Some examples : ETS upscaling July 2011, Run: 00 UTC, forecast time 18-21 hours

22 Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011 Some examples : FSS July 2011, Run: 00 UTC, forecast time 18-21 hours

23 Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011 Some aggregated results: ETS Upscaling July 2011 for different runs and forecast intervals (Germany)

24 Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011 Some aggregated results: FSS July 2011 for different runs and forecast intervals (Germany)

25 Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011 Some aggregated results: ETS Upscaling July 2011 for different runs and forecast intervals (NW-Germany)

26 Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011 Some aggregated results: ETS Upscaling July 2011 for different runs and forecast intervals (NE-Germany)

27 Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011 Some aggregated results: ETS Upscaling July 2011 for different runs and forecast intervals (SW-Germany)

28 Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011 Some aggregated results: ETS Upscaling July 2011 for different runs and forecast intervals (SE-Germany)

29 Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011 Some aggregated results: ETS Upscaling May 2011 for different runs and forecast intervals (Germany)

30 Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011 Some aggregated results: ETS Upscaling June 2011 for different runs and forecast intervals (Germany)

31 Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011 Some aggregated results: ETS Upscaling July 2011 for different runs and forecast intervals (Germany)

32 Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011 Some aggregated results: ETS Upscaling July 2011 for different runs and forecast intervals (Germany)

33 Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011 Principle of boundary conditions for COSMO-DE and latent heat nudging LHN (RH=const) U, V, T, p‘, QV, QC, QI, QR, QS, T_SNOW, W_SNOW

34 Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011 Some aggregated results: ETS Upscaling July 2011 for different runs and forecast intervals (Germany)

35 Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011 Summary concerning Fuzzy-Verification  The application of Fuzzy-verification for 3h-intervals allows a more detailed insight on the differences between the quality of precipitation forecast of CDE and CEU.  The results got by MeteoSwiss could be reproduces at least in a qualitative way.  Fractions Skill Score and ETS upscaling give for special cases notable different results. But the aggregated results are relatively good correlated.  The effect of LHN is especially for the whole region of Germany and for runs between sun rise and sun set relatively clear pronounced.  Also for parts of Germany this can be stated – but not with the same degree as for the whole region.  For some forecast intervals the effect of threee hour old boundar values of the CEU can be seen.

36 Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011 COSI @ DWD

37 Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011 COSI @ DWD

38 Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011 COSI @ DWD

39 Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011 COSI @ DWD

40 Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011 COSI @ DWD

41 Ulrich Damrath: Fuzzy and standard verification for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE, COSMO GM, Rome September 2011 COSI @ DWD

42

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