1. Selecting, Modifying and Applying Methods
Risk Assessment Tools
Selecting, Modifying and Applying
Methods
UCM Risk Assessment Symposium
November 5, 2015
Bruce Lyon, CSP, PE, ARM, CHMM
Hays Companies

2. Risk Assessment Tools The Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment Process
Assessment Methods
Selecting and Modifying Methods
Applying Methods

3. Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment

4. Definitions Risk Assessment
Overall process of risk identification, risk analysis and risk evaluation. (ISO Guide 73/ANSI/ASSE Z )
A process that commences with hazard identification and analysis, through which the probable severity of harm or damage is established, followed by an estimate of the probability of the incident or exposure occurring, and concluding with a statement of risk. (ANSI/ASSE Z590.3 PtD Standard)

5. Risk Assessment
The purpose: to determine whether the level of risk is acceptable, or whether more needs to be done to control or reduce the risk. The process should be carried out in a rational, logical and structured manner.

6. Risk Assessment within the Risk Management Framework

7. Establish Risk Criteria
Establish Context
Assemble Team
Identify Hazards
Analyze Risks
Evaluate Risks
Treat Risks
Document
Monitor / Review
Risk Assessment Process

8. ISO 31010/ANSI Z690.3 Methods Brainstorming Cause and Effect Analysis
Structure Interviews
Layers of Protection Analysis
Delphi
Decision Tree Analysis
Checklists
Human Reliability Analysis
Preliminary Hazard Analysis
Bow Tie Analysis
Hazard and Operability Studies (HAZOP)
Reliability Centered Maintenance
Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points (HACCP)
Sneak Analysis
Toxicity Assessment
Markov Analysis
Structured What-if Analysis
Monte Carlo Analysis
Scenario Analysis
Bayesian Statistics and Bayes Nets
Business Impact Analysis
FN Curves
Root Cause Analysis
Risk Indices
Failure Modes and Effect Analysis
Consequence/Probability Matrix
Fault Tree Analysis
Cost/Benefit Analysis
Event Tree Analysis
Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis
Cause and Consequence Analysis
Description, use, strengthens and weaknesses for each method

9. Z590.3 PtD Methods Design Safety Reviews
Failure Modes and Effect Analysis
Checklists
Fault Tree Analysis
Risk Assessment Matrix
Management Oversight and Risk Tree (MORT)
Preliminary Hazard Analysis
What-if Analysis
What-if/Checklist Analysis
Hazard and Operability Studies (HAZOP)
Hazards are the source of risk
Thus, if risks are to be assessed, hazards must first be identified.

10. ANSI Z10 Methods Design Reviews Brainstorming Checklists
Consequence/Probability Matrix
Risk Assessment Matrix
Hazards are the source of risk
Thus, if risks are to be assessed, hazards must first be identified.

11. Selecting Risk Assessment Tools
Consider the following:
What is the Application (New Design; Existing System; General or Specific Hazards)
What is the Level of Detail Needed
What is the Complexity of the System
What is the Size of the System
What Resources are Available
The level of detail in a risk assessment should be proportionate to the level of the intrinsic hazards.
It is probably most useful to use generic risk assessments as the starting point for site-specific assessments, and consider in a systematic way whether there are any additional hazards, or significant differences in the specific situation that require any additions or modifications to the generic assessment.

12. Selecting Risk Assessment Tools
As a general rule, when selecting a risk assessment method, the simplest tool or tools that provide sufficient information to make an appropriate risk management decision is advised.
No single assessment tool is able to meet all of the requirements for risk assessment, as all tools have limitations and weaknesses.
Modified tools may be necessary (and even desired)
Often a combination of tools is necessary.

13. Selecting Risk Assessment Tools
Fundamental Tools commonly used include:
Checklists
Brainstorming
JHAs and JRAs
Preliminary Hazard Analysis
What-if Analysis
Failure Mode and Effects Analysis
Bow Tie Analysis
Risk Matrix
The level of detail in a risk assessment should be proportionate to the level of the intrinsic hazards.
It is probably most useful to use generic risk assessments as the starting point for site-specific assessments, and consider in a systematic way whether there are any additional hazards, or significant differences in the specific situation that require any additions or modifications to the generic assessment.

14. Checklist Tools Used to identify common hazards
Industry/process specific checklists
Can be customized for application
Easy to use, but limited to existing list
Generally followed by other risk analysis and evaluation tools

15. Brainstorming Used to identify potential hazards and scenarios
Can be structured or unstructured
Requires a facilitator to lead session and record ideas
Generally followed by other risk analysis and evaluation tools

16. Brainstorming State Goal No Critical Remarks Generate Ideas
Record Everything
Evaluate and Qualify

17. Job Hazard Analysis (JHA)
Used to identify job steps, hazards and controls
Helpful in job training and incident investigation
Does not include an ‘assessment of risk’, just identification of hazards and controls

18. Job Hazard Analysis (JHA)

19. Job Risk Assessment (JRA)
Simple tool
Same as JHA but includes a ‘risk assessment’ of each hazard
Allow hazards and corrective measures to be prioritized by ‘risk level’

20. Job Risk Assessment (JRA)

22. Preliminary Hazard Analysis
An ‘Initial Analysis’ tool
Used to identify hazards and control measures for new designs or existing systems
Used when limited information is available
Allows for risk levels to be prioritized for further assessment and management
method to identify hazards, assess the initial risks, and identify potential mitigation measures early in the design stage

23. Preliminary Hazard Analysis Example
Winery Risk Assessment
100% Liquid Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) used for dosing large tanks inside buildings.
SO2 is used to protect the wine from yeast and microbial growth which can spoil or reduce the quality of wine.

24. Preliminary Hazard Analysis Example
Risks of using 100% Sulfur Dioxide
Potential for releases in winery and bottling area
Lethal dose = 100 ppm (Cal-OSHA PEL = 2 ppm)
Can cause blindness
Environmental concerns (reporting requirements)
Transporting, dispensing, handling, storage concerns
SO2 is used to protect the wine from yeast and microbial growth which can spoil or reduce the quality of wine.
45 gallons which weighs 548 lbs. exceeds the Threshold Planning Quantity (TPQ) of 500 lbs. for U.S. EPA SARA Title III, Sections 302 and 304, Extremely Hazardous Substances.

25. Preliminary Hazard Analysis Example
Winery Risks
Sulfur dioxide gas is heavier than air and can accumulate in closed areas.
The configuration and lack of ventilation in the bottling area presented a significant risk to employees should a SO2 release occur in the area.
SO2 is used to protect the wine from yeast and microbial growth which can spoil or reduce the quality of wine.

26. Risk Criteria Severity Level Definition Catastrophic (4)
Fatalities; Damage to Community, Environment, and Reputation
High (3)
Permanent Disability Injury or Illness; Multiple Injury Events
Moderate (2)
Injury or Illness Requiring Medical Attention
Low (1)
Minor Injury or First Aid Incident
Likelihood Level
Definition
Very Likely (4)
Will happen under right situations; has occurred multiple times
Likely (3)
Likely to happen under right circumstances; has occurred in past
Possible (2)
Can happen in certain situations
Unlikely (1)
Unlikely to happen; remotely possible
SO2 is used to protect the wine from yeast and microbial growth which can spoil or reduce the quality of wine.
Low
(1)
Moderate
(2)
High
(3)
Catastrophic (4)
Very Likely (4) 4 8 12 16
Likely (3) 3 6 9
Possible (2) 2
Unlikely (1) 1

27. Preliminary Hazard Analysis Example
Task
Hazard
Current Severity
Current Likelihood
Current Risk Level
Recommended Controls
Future Severity
Future Likelihood
Future Risk Level
SO2 Dosing using 100% SO2 liquid
Health risk from leak or release; 2 ppm PEL; 100 ppm lethal dose;
Heavier than air. EPA regulated product. 4 3 12
SO2 is used to protect the wine from yeast and microbial growth which can spoil or reduce the quality of wine.

28. Preliminary Hazard Analysis Example
Task
Hazard
Current Severity
Current Likelihood
Current Risk Level
Recommended Controls
Future Severity
Future Likelihood
Future Risk Level
SO2 Dosing using 100% SO2 liquid
Health risk from leak or release; 2 ppm PEL; 100 ppm lethal dose;
Heavier than air. EPA regulated product. 4 3 12
Substitute 100% SO2 with 6% liquid SO2 and K2S2O5 (potassium meta-bisulfite) effervescent tables, granular, powder 2
SO2 is used to protect the wine from yeast and microbial growth which can spoil or reduce the quality of wine.

29. What-if Analysis A team-based, brainstorming process
Engineering, production, maintenance, fire protection, SH&E
Used to identify and analyze scenarios and hazards
Typically does not include ‘risk analysis’ (severity and likelihood levels)
Can be modified to include risk analysis

30. What-if Analysis

31. What-if Analysis ABC – Repair Facility
Vapor Combustor Process Hazard What-if Analysis
Date: June 17 & 18, 2009
Team members: Bruce Lyon – Hays Companies; Deane Holmes – Hays Companies; Tim G – ABC Engineer; Gary F – Env.; John K – Safety; David B - Maintenance
Pre-Startup & Vapor Combustor Purging
ID #
What if…
Causes
Effect
Safeguards
A1.
Insufficient purging of vapor combustor stack
Failure of assist air blower
Will not start
A1.1 Operator training in JSA & purging procedure
A1.2 Alarm if assist air blower fails
A2.
Steam is used to purge the waste gas line
Steam used to purge system
Steam condenses in piping without displacing air Nitrogen purge line is hard piped in system (not possible to purge with steam)
A2.1 Nitrogen purge line is hard piped in system (not possible to purge with steam)
A2.2 Operator training in purging procedure
A3.
Igniting pilots before air is removed from system
Inadequate purge; lack of purge
Fire or explosion
A3.1 Automated start up will not allow pilot ignition before system clear purge seal test
*Control panel software

32. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis
A method used to identify the ways a system can fail
Used for new and existing designs, products, processes and systems
Analyzes failures individually
FMEA identifies:
Potential failure modes
Effects of failures
The causes of failures
How to avoid the failures

33. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis

34. Bow Tie Analysis A combination of a fault tree and event tree analysis
Used to provide a clear illustration of the risk pathways and control measures
Provides a “big picture” view of a process or system to effectively communicate risk exposures and controls
Attention to both preventive controls and reactive measures
Typically lacks a risk scoring mechanism
Often times brainstorming, PHA or FMEA are used upfront to identify hazards, causes, existing controls and escalating factors for a particular scenario

35. Bow Tie Analysis

36. ‘Striped’ Bow Tie Analysis

37. Risk Matrix
A means of combining qualitative or quantitative ratings of severity and likelihood to produce a risk level
Used to rank risks as part of ‘risk evaluation’
Provides a consistent method of prioritizing
Communicates risk to management

38. Risk Matrix

39. Using a Series of Risk Assessment Tools