1. Poverty and Regime Change Nora Genster and Andrew Tabas

2. Question Is regime change more frequent in rich or poor countries?

3. Answer Regime change is more frequent in poor countries

4. Regimes in Literature Gassebner et al. Boix

5. Variables GDP growth GDP per capita (purchasing power parity) Inequality Regime Change Independent Dependent

6. Defining Rich and Poor Median values Income inequality - 42.96 GDP growth - 3.48% GDP per capita lagged (purchasing power parity) - 8.437

7. Frequency of Regime Transition VariablesMedian Value Number of Regime Transitions per POOR Country-year Number of Regime Transitions per Rich Country-year Lgdppcpppc (Logged GDP per capita) 8.437.030.008 Gdpgr1 (GDP growth) 3.84.025.007 Inequal1 (Inequality) 42.96.013.010

8. Frequency of Regime Transition

9. Choosing Case Studies Poor Country-yearRich Country-year Yes Regime Change (1)Quadrant OneQuadrant 2 No Regime Change (2)Quadrant 3Quadrant 4 Poor Country-yearRich Country-year Yes Regime Change (1)Guatemala, 1982South Korea, 1987 No Regime Change (2)YemenSweden

10. Guatemala, 1982 Regime Change – dictatorship to democracy GDP contraction - 3.53% Low GDP per capita – 7.578 High inequality – 46.53

11. South Korea, 1987 Regime change dictatorship to democracy High GDP growth – 10.62% High GPD per capita – 8.83 Low inequality – 37.61

12. Yemen and Sweden Sweden Yemen No regime change Consistently high GDP growth and GDP per capita Low inequality No regime change Consistently low GDP growth and GDP per capita High inequality

13. In Sum… Is regime change more frequency in rich or poor country- years? Regime Change is more frequent in poor-country years Poverty encourages political instability

14. Expansion Bank’s Conflict Index Bell Curve

15. Thank you.