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Published byMilton Griffin Modified over 9 years ago
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Rob Moore Mark Homer
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“The unsheathed truth behind UK property economics and why supercharged returns are inevitable”
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1.The New Paradigm 2.The Investors secret weapon 3.Green and Pleasant returns 4.Grow up, get lower rates on Pick and Mix finance “The 4 sure fire strategies to supercruise your profits in the new world”
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Section 1: The New Paradigm -Great crash of ’08 – 2 main segments -Finance Led, so high LTV worst affected -Different from late 80s – people want to buy! -Bottom end Rents rising strongly “The unsheathed truth behind UK property economics and why supercharged returns are inevitable”
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Section 1: The New Paradigm -Low end residential outpacing commercial -7% this year, 6.5% next, 5.5% in 2012 (Savills) -Low end of cycle where prices don’t rise as quickly (for now!) -Yield explosion “The unsheathed truth behind UK property economics and why supercharged returns are inevitable”
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Section 1: The New Paradigm -UK private rented sector growth: Europe -Size, imbalance of returns, attractiveness brings -Institutional investors: Banks lending on rent -Commercial Properties valued on rent “The unsheathed truth behind UK property economics and why supercharged returns are inevitable”
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Section 1: The New Paradigm -Surveyors instructed this way -What can you do?: - Pick areas with high LTV -Pick the highest yielding properties “The unsheathed truth behind UK property economics and why supercharged returns are inevitable”
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Section 2: The Investors Secret weapon -Inflation now CPI: 4.0%, RPI 5.1% In January -Believable? -Govt using backdoor strategy! 70s? -Helps rental growth -Devalues debt + Drives capital value “The unsheathed truth behind UK property economics and why supercharged returns are inevitable”
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Section 2: The Investors Secret weapon -Less Sellers with equity -Yields will reduce as market grows, pre crunch 3% lower! -Eventually yields will be so high and people Wake up – yield compression “The unsheathed truth behind UK property economics and why supercharged returns are inevitable”
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Section 2: The Investors Secret weapon -Solution: Lease Options/Long stop -No Deposit, can take old cheap mortgages -Agents full of people who cant/wont sell -Incentivise them with fee over time “The unsheathed truth behind UK property economics and why supercharged returns are inevitable”
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Section 3: Green and Pleasant returns -Low rate, normally easily accessible system -High borrowing by world standards -Just behind US -UK Property Market very focussed on finance “The unsheathed truth behind UK property economics and why supercharged returns are inevitable”
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Section 3: Green and Pleasant returns -London recognised as the most attractive European City for Investment (LaSalle Inv Mang), ask Lord Sugar! -Growth post 70s, 80s and 2008 crashes -Credit Crunch particularly severe here “The unsheathed truth behind UK property economics and why supercharged returns are inevitable”
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Section 3: Green and Pleasant returns -Population from 60M to 71M by 2031 -Doomsday book – 1086 -Land was worth around £75k - £1 Trillion today -over 10% annually! AFTER Inflation -Planning – not in my back yard “The unsheathed truth behind UK property economics and why supercharged returns are inevitable”
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Section 3: Green and Pleasant returns -US/Australia too much building land -Europe rents -Build costs rising – wiring quote! Ged materials -Upswing will be greatest in UK “The unsheathed truth behind UK property economics and why supercharged returns are inevitable”
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Land value?
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Section 3: Green and Pleasant returns -Weak Sterling drives building costs on imports + Local materials pushed abroad -Developers build less houses if no profit -Barker report ‘03 around 230k new homes needed -Avg 3 bed 1000 sq ft house £80k plus to build! “The unsheathed truth behind UK property economics and why supercharged returns are inevitable”
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Section 3: Green and Pleasant returns “The unsheathed truth behind UK property economics and why supercharged returns are inevitable” -Yr to June 2010 around 100k completions (CLG)
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Section 4: Grow up and get lower rates on Pick and Mix finance -Relationship based -Little by little – rent stress eases/interest only -Remortgage straight away “The unsheathed truth behind UK property economics and why supercharged returns are inevitable”
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Section 4: Grow up and get lower rates on Pick and Mix finance -Lloyds – 70% LTV, around 3% over base. Who? “The unsheathed truth behind UK property economics and why supercharged returns are inevitable” -2.5%-3% over base! -No CML -Short Leases, Title defects, owned for short period
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Section 4: Grow up and get lower rates on Pick and Mix finance “The unsheathed truth behind UK property economics and why supercharged returns are inevitable” -Not RBS! -Santander, Butterworths, Adam Bank, Aldermore great for HMO (value on rent) -Unlikely CO-OP! -Barclays – Interest only lower rent stress
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The credit committee
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Section 4: Grow up and get lower rates on Pick and Mix finance -Need a business Plan – credit committee -Demonstrate knowledge (bus manager likely to know less than you about residential property!) -Wet their appetite – lots to refinance -HOW? “The unsheathed truth behind UK property economics and why supercharged returns are inevitable”
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Section 4: Grow up and get lower rates on Pick and Mix finance “The unsheathed truth behind UK property economics and why supercharged returns are inevitable” -Credit history not important to some -Show some income
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