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TSDBF / TPF & TRANSNET SOC LTD JOINT FINAL PROPOSAL TO THE PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 25 NOVEMBER 2011
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AGENDA TSDBF stakeholder expectations and Transnet’s mandate The Portfolio Committee (PC) recommendations and its implications The TSDBF & Transnet Proposal – detailed per item Conclusion – on TSDBF Transnet sub-fund within TPF Questions 2
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THE STAKEHOLDERS TSDBF Pensioners Pension increases beyond the current 2% p.a. Preferably linked to inflation Bonus structure to continue (NB) Secure cashflow from a sustainable fund TSDBF Trustees Fulfill their fiduciary obligations to the Fund and its pensioners Financial prudence of the Fund wrt liabilities is paramount as well as a statutory requirement Well aware of the plight of pensioners Cognisant of the generational issues in balancing immediate cashflow versus longer term effect of inflation on pensions Employer (Transnet Ltd) Well aware of challenges facing TSDBF trustees and pensioners Need to comply with PFMA requirements and mandate from Shareholder Transnet BOD must act within the scope of their fiduciary obligations 3
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TRANSNET MANDATE Transnet’s mandate is: Primary logistics service provider to support RSA economic growth; and Roll out a massive capital expenditure plan to ensure the appropriate infrastructure to provide logistics services in a cost effective and efficient manner. The capital expenditure programme and the Portfolio Committee’s resolution will result in Transnet being in the following position: Borrowing R36.3 billion over 3 years on the strength of its own balance sheet with no Government guarantees; Gearing ratio will increase to 48.3% - cannot increase beyond 50%; and Cash interest cover very fragile at 3.2 times – cannot be below 3.0 times. International economic crisis; Moody’s downgrade etc This position will seriously jeopardise Transnet’s ability to execute its mandate – consequently contrary to fiduciary duties of the Board of Directors of Transnet. 4
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THE PC RECOMMENDATIONS AND ITS IMPLICATIONS Recommendations : Backpay of 5 months’ pension Future pension increases at 75% of CPI, subject to affordability A once off 3.2% base uplift in pension Funding issues Will exhaust current surplus PLUS will require additional injection of R2bn 5
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TSDBF CANNOT AFFORD PC RECOMMENDATIONS Scenario (R’bn)Current75% CPI only 75% CPI plus 5m backpay 75% CPI plus 5m backpay and uplift Assets18.8 Liabilities16.119.320.120.8 Surplus/(Deficit)2.7(0.5)(1.3)(2.0) Funding level117.0%97.5%93.4%90.6% Total cost of PC recommendations R4.7 billion 6
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FINAL PROPOSAL Takes account of : The Fund’s financial position and soundness The impact of the proposal on pensioners receiving, or qualifying to receive, the State Old Age Pension Generational issues and current life expectancy of pensioners The asset allocation of the fund and expected return on assets Potential unwinding of solvency reserves over time Preferences expressed by the pensioners as advised by the Pensioner elected Trustee representatives of the Fund Fiduciary duties of Trustees and Transnet BOD 7
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PROPOSAL 1 : PAYMENT OF 5 MONTHS’ PENSION Since PC communication started, 2 months additional pension have been paid as bonuses The Fund will by Feb 2012 pay another 3 months pension as bonuses to take the total bonuses paid to 5 months pension (since November 2010) The Fund Trustees will finalise the details of the payment plan and exact timing of payments The intention of the Fund is to fully implement this proposal at a total cost of R850 million (18%) 8
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PROPOSAL 2 : PROSPECTIVE PENSION INCREASE POLICY OF 75% OF CPI, SUBJECT TO AFFORDABILITY (STA) Based on 6% p.a. expected inflation The 2% p.a. guaranteed increase (33% of CPI) remain The targeted increase is subject to affordability (STA) STA will be clearly defined by the Fund, but will be based on : Investment returns in line or beating expectations The Fund not having a deficit after any such increase The Trustees will finalise the exact payment and timing of these increases. The increases will not vest, but is expected to accumulate over time to equate to the targeted level of CPI increase The increases will be paid using the bonus rule currently in the Rules of the Fund Modelling results outlined below (next slide) 9
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PROPOSAL 2 : Cont. The 2% p.a. already represents 33% of CPI and is included in the results below (all STA) Based on current valuation basis : A target of 63% of CPI can be afforded Based on the higher expected returns on equity and the matching structure of the Fund, the target can be increased to 68% of CPI should these investment returns transpire Lastly, the Fund expects the solvency reserves to unwind (reduce) over time and together with any further outperformance of assets will try to target 75% of CPI increases over time Any excesses beyond this level may lead to additional bonuses being paid IMPORTANT : Although the Fund may target 75% of CPI, the comfortable level of increases is between 63% and 68% of CPI The intention is to fully implement this proposal at a cost of R2.7 billion (57%) 10
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CONCLUSION ON TSDBF Of the 3 PC proposals, 2 can by and large be met: 5 months pensions – fully met 75% of CPI prospective increases STA – targeted, but mostly met in terms of analysis 75%, R3.55 billion, of total expected cash flows from proposals will be given to pensioners Additional bonuses, if future excesses are generated for benefit of pensioners Not taken into account in the means test in calculating an older persons entitlement to a State grant 11
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TSDBF’S POSITION AFTER IMPLEMENTATION OF JOINT PROPOSAL * The surplus will be used to fund the targeted CPI linked increases Scenario (R’bn)TSDBF Current TSDBF After bonus payment(s) Assets18.818.3 Liabilities16.1 Surplus*2.72.2 Funding level117.0%114.0% 12
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