1. Ecosystem Services: Dynamics, Modeling and Valuation

2. " E m p t y W o r l d " R e c y c l e d M a t t e r W a s t e H e a t
Finite Global Ecosystem S o l a r E n e r g y E n e r g y G r o w i n g E n e r g y
" E m p t y
Source E c o n o m i c
Sink
Functions S u b s y s t e m
Functions R e s o u r c e s R e s o u r c e s W o r l d
" R e c y c l e d M a t t e r W a s t e H e a t

3. ”Empty World" Model of the Economy
Property rights
Individual
Utility/welfare
Private
Public
Consumption
(based on fixed
Building
Manufactured
preferences)
capital
Goods
Cultural
Education, Training,
Perfect Substitutability
Economic
GNP
and
Norms and
Labor
Research
Process
Policy
Between Factors
Services
Improvement
Investment
Land
(decisions about, taxes
government spending,
education,
science and
technology
policy, etc., based
on existing property
rights regimes)

4. " F u l l W o r l d " W a s t e H e a t S o l a r E n e r g y
FInite Global Ecosystem S o l a r E n e r g y E n e r g y E n e r g y
Source G r o w i n g
Sink
" F u l l E c o n o m i c
Functions
Functions S u b s y s t e m W o r l d
" R e s o u r c e s R e s o u r c e s
Recycled
Matter W a s t e H e a t

5. The “Nature” of Goods and Services

6. Degradation of ecosystem services often causes significant harm to human well-being
The total economic value associated with managing ecosystems more sustainably is often higher than the value associated with conversion
Conversion may still occur because private economic benefits are often greater for the converted system

7. “Full World” Model of the Ecological Economic System
positive impacts on human capital capacity
being, doing, relating
Well Being
(Individual and
Ecological
having, being
Community)
Complex property
services/
doing, relating
rights regimes
amenities
Individual
Common
Public
- having,
having
- being
Consumption
(based on changing,
Solar
Wastes
adapting
Energy
Restoration,
Natural Capital
preferences)
Conservation
Economic
Evolving
Education, training,
Human Capital
Goods
GNP
Cultural
research.
Limited Substitutability
Between Capital Forms
Production
and
Norms and
Institutional
Policy
Process
Services
SocialCapital
rules, norms, etc.
Investment
Building
Manufactured
(decisions about, taxes
community spending,
Capital
education, science and
technology policy, etc., based
negative impacts on all forms of capital
on complex property
rights regimes)
Materially closed earth system
Waste heat
From: Costanza, R., J. C. Cumberland, H. E. Daly, R. Goodland, and R. Norgaard An Introduction to Ecological Economics. St. Lucie Press, Boca Raton, 275 pp.

8. Ecosystem Services
Ecosystems are the structures and processes that generate function
Ecosystem Functions are the ecosystem processes that are of value to humans
Ecosystem Services are the valued functions.
Characteristics of Ecosystem Services:
Structures are not transformed into the produced services (Lumber is not the services, the production of lumber is)
Services are fueled by solar energy.
Rate of use depends on ecosystem functioning and cannot be controlled by humans.
Characterized by uncertainty and ignorance; we have incomplete knowledge on how they are produced

9. Quality of Life (QOL) as the interaction of human needs and the subjective perception of their fulfillment, as mediated by the opportunities available to meet the needs.
From: Costanza, R., B. Fisher, S. Ali, C. Beer, L. Bond, R. Boumans, N. L. Danigelis, J. Dickinson, C. Elliott, J. Farley, D. E. Gayer, L. MacDonald Glenn, T. Hudspeth, D. Mahoney, L. McCahill, B. McIntosh, B. Reed, S. A. T. Rizvi, D. M. Rizzo, T. Simpatico, and R. Snapp Quality of Life: An Approach Integrating Opportunities, Human Needs, and Subjective Well-Being. Ecological Economics (in press).

11. The value of the world’s ecosystem services and natural capital
NATURE |VOL 387 | 15 MAY
article
The value of the world’s ecosystem
services and natural capital
Robert Costanza*†, Ralph d’Arge‡, Rudolf de Groot§, Stephen Farberk, Monica Grasso†, Bruce Hannon¶,
Karin Limburg#I, Shahid Naeem**, Robert V. O’Neill††, Jose Paruelo‡‡, Robert G. Raskin§§, Paul Suttonkk
& Marjan van den Belt¶¶
* Center for Environmental and Estuarine Studies, Zoology Department, and † Insitute for Ecological Economics, University of Maryland, Box 38, Solomons,
Maryland 20688, USA
‡ Economics Department (emeritus), University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming 82070, USA
§ Center for Environment and Climate Studies, Wageningen Agricultural University, PO Box 9101, 6700 HB Wageninengen, The Netherlands
kGraduate School of Public and International Affairs, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15260, USA
¶ Geography Department and NCSA, University of Illinois, Urbana, Illinois 61801, USA
# Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, New York, USA
** Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, University of Minnesota, St Paul, Minnesota 55108, USA
†† Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831, USA
‡‡ Department of Ecology, Faculty of Agronomy, University of Buenos Aires, Av. San Martin 4453, 1417 Buenos Aires, Argentina
§§ Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California 91109, USA
kkNational Center for Geographic Information and Analysis, Department of Geography, University of California at Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California 93106,
USA
¶¶ Ecological Economics Research and Applications Inc., PO Box 1589, Solomons, Maryland 20688, USA
The services of ecological systems and the natural capital stocksthat produce them are critical to the functioning of the
Earth’s life-support system. They contribute to human welfare, both directly and indirectly, and therefore represent
part of the total economic value of the planet.We have estimated the current economic value of 17 ecosystem services
for 16 biomes, based on published studies and a few original calculations. For the entire biosphere, the value (most of
which is outside the market) is estimated to be in the range of US$16–54 trillion (1012) per year, with an average of
US$33trillion per year. Because of the nature of the uncertainties, thismust be considered a minimum estimate. Global
gross national product total is around US$18 trillion per year.
This is the 2nd most cited article in the last 10 years in the Ecology/Environment area according to the ISI Web of Science.
A preliminary assessment of the value of ecosystem services at the global scale (Costanza et al 1997) indicated that they provide a significant portion of the total contribution to human welfare on this planet. This study estimated that the annual value of these services (in 1994 $US) at $ trillion, with an estimated average of $33 trillion (which is significantly larger than global GNP). Because of the nature of the uncertainties in this estimate, it is almost certainly an underestimate. Coastal environments, including estuaries, coastal wetlands, beds of sea grass and algae, coral reefs, and continental shelves were estimated to be of disproportionately high value in this study. They cover only 6.3% of the world's surface but are responsible for 43% of the estimated value of the world's ecosystem services. These environments are particularly valuable in regulating the cycling of water and nutrients which control the productivity (carbon fixation) of plants on land and in the sea.

12. Focus: Consequences of Ecosystem Change for Human Well-being

13. Tools for Analyses

14. GUMBO (Global Unified Model of the BiOsphere)
At the Gund Institute, a Global Unified Metamodel of the BiOsphere (GUMBO) has been developed to simulate the integrated earth system and assess the dynamics and values of ecosystem services. It is a “metamodel” in that it represents a synthesis and a simplification of several existing dynamic global models in both the natural and social sciences at an intermediate level of complexity. The current version of the model contains 234 state variables, 930 variables total, and 1715 parameters.
GUMBO is the first global model to include the dynamic feedbacks among human technology, economic production and welfare, and ecosystem goods and services within the dynamic earth system. GUMBO includes modules to simulate carbon, water, and nutrient fluxes through the Atmosphere, Lithosphere, Hydrosphere, and Biosphere of the global system. Social and economic dynamics are simulated within the Anthroposphere. GUMBO links these five spheres across eleven biomes, which together encompass the entire surface of the planet. The dynamics of ten major ecosystem services for each of the biomes are simulated and evaluated. Historical calibrations from 1900 to 2000, and a range of future scenarios representing different assumptions about future technological change, investment strategies and other factors have been simulated.
The relative value of ecosystem services in terms of their contribution to supporting both conventional economic production and human well-being more broadly defined were estimated under each scenario, and preliminary conclusions drawn. The value of global ecosystem services was estimated to be about 4.5 times the value of Gross World Product (GWP) in the year 2000 using this approach. The model can be downloaded and run on the average PC to allow users to explore for themselves the complex dynamics of the system and the full range of policy assumptions and scenarios.
From: Boumans, R., R. Costanza, J. Farley, M. A. Wilson, R. Portela, J. Rotmans, F. Villa, and M. Grasso Modeling the Dynamics of the Integrated Earth System and the Value of Global Ecosystem Services Using the GUMBO Model. Ecological Economics 41:

15. Amoeba diagram of complexity with which Integrated Global Models (IGMs) capture socioeconomic systems, natural systems, and feedbacks
(from Costanza, R., R. Leemans, R. Boumans, and E. Gaddis Integrated global models. Dahlem Workshop on Integrated History and future of People on Earth (IHOPE). (in press)

16. Ecosystem functions: The capacity of natural processes and components to provide goods and services that satisfy human needs. (de Groot, 1992) Ecosystem Services: Valued Ecosystem Functions.
R.S. de Groot et al. / Ecological Economics 41 (2002) 393–408

17. Werners, S.E. and R. Boumans (2005) Simulating global feedbacks between Sea Level Rise, Water for Agriculture and the complex Socio-economic Development of the IPCC Scenarios,
In: Proceedings Environmental Modelling and Software Society Conference: Complexity and Integrated Resources Management (IEMSS2004), Osnabrück, June 2004

18. Welfare per GWP Human Population Ecosystem Services Value 500 400 30020 15 10 5
billion people
500
400
300
200
100
trill. US Dollars (1998)
Observations
Scenarios
Base Case
Star Trek (ST)
Big Government (BG)
Mad Max (MM)
Eco-Topia (ET)
2050
2000
1950
1900
Year
2050
2000
1950
1900 10 -4 2 3 4 5 6 -3 -2
welfare Index per trill US dollars
2050
2000
1950
1900
Year
Welfare per GWP

20. Ecosystem Evaluations

21. Conventional economic valuation presumes that people have well-formed preferences and enough information about trade-offs that they can adequately judge their “willingness-to-pay.” These assumptions do not hold for many ecosystem services. Therefore we must:

22. (1) inform people’s preferences as demonstrated by DeGroot et al
(1) inform people’s preferences as demonstrated by DeGroot et al. Costanza et al.;
(2) allow groups to discuss the issues and “construct” their preferences in development under ARIES, TNC InVest and the ESR (Corporate Ecosystem Services Review, developed by the World Resource Institute or
(3) use other techniques that do not rely on preferences to estimate the contribution to human welfare of ecosystem services (i.e. using the models developed to directly infer marginal contributions to welfare). The MIMES approach.

23. Ecological Economics 41 (2002) 393–408 SPECIAL ISSUE:
A typology for the classification, description and valuation of ecosystem functions, goods and services
Rudolf S. de Groot, Matthew A. Wilson, Roelof M.J. Boumans

25. Value Typology

26. Existing & Emerging Tools
ARIES (Assessment and Research Infrastructure for Ecosystem Services), which is under development by the University of Vermont’s Ecoinformatics Collaboratory (within the Gund Institute for Ecological Economics), Conservation International, Earth Economics, as well as with collaboration from experts at Wageningen University. An initial online version will be launched in 2008.
ESR (Corporate Ecosystem Services Review), which was launched in March 2008 by the World Resources Institute (WRI), the Meridian Institute, and the World Business Council on Sustainable Development (WBCSD).
InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs), which is in development by The Natural Capital Project—a joint venture among Stanford University’s Woods Institute for the Environment, The Nature Conservancy, and World Wildlife Fund—with the goal of issuing a manual in the Summer / Fall 2008 and software in Fall / Winter 2008.
MIMES (Multiscale Integrated Models of Ecosystem Services), which is currently available in an early version (“beta plus”) from the University of Vermont’s Gund Institute for Ecological Economics.

27. Ecosystem Services and Land Cover Types

29. The Rapid Accessment Valuation Tool (RAV)

30. Info on the Benefit transfer Method

31. Problems with the Benefits Transfer Method
1 Not every forest provides ecosystem services at the same rate 2 Ecosystem service values are specific in time and space

32. Ecosystem Services classified according to spatial characteristics Omni-directional, Global (does not depend on proximity) Carbon sequestration (NPP) Carbon storage Existence of “nature” Omni-directional, Local (depends on proximity) Storm protection Waste treatment Pollination Directional flow related: flow from point of production to point of use Water supply Water regulation/flood protection Nutrient regulation Sediment regulation In situ (point of use) Rangeland for livestock Nitrogen mineralization for ag. production Soil formation Raw materials Non-timber forest products User movement flow related: flow of people to unique natural features Aesthetic/recreation potential

33. Dynamic Modeling and Mapping Tool
Innovative, online dynamic modeling and mapping tools for ecosystem services analysis at multiple scales (2013)
And what is the potential focus of all of this R&D activity: flexible services status and forecasting at-a-glance at user selected areas of interest. The green areas are the program place-based focus (Midwest, Willamette, Coastal Carolinas and Tampa Bay) and the bar chart is the modeled output that corresponds to the map view selected (from Jana Compton). Differences in services futures can be compared directly to current as a baseline.

34. MIMES Objectives / Goals
Develop a sophisticated and transferable system to elucidate dynamics of ecosystem services.
Develop a dynamic spatial model
Collect data
Provide a user interface
Understand the link between ecosystem services and human welfare
Develop valuation protocols
Forecast changes in ecosystem functions and values under various management scenarios.
Model scenario development
At the Gund Institute,(University of Vermont) we're developing, testing, and implementing innovative methods and models based on ecological economics, that reflect the need to integrate the social, built, natural, and human capital components of our world.
During this presentation we will introduce MIMES, the classes developed to facilitate learning using and further developing MIMES.
This class will be taught through continuing education at UVM. The first time will be this fall semester.

35. Outcome 1. a suite of dynamic ecological economic computer models specifically aimed at integrating our understanding of ecosystem functioning, ecosystem services, and human well-being across a range of spatial scales
Outcome 2. developed and applied new valuation techniques adapted to the public goods nature of most ecosystem services and integrated with the modeling work.

36. MIMES organization and Interaction Matrix
Locations
Biosphere
Anthroposphere
Ecosystem
Services
Cultures
Earth Surfaces
Social Capital
Human Capital
Economie
Nutrient
Cycling
Biodiversity
Exchanges
Between
Locations
Hydrosphere
Lithosphere
Atmosphere
We will be working within the principals set out through the Multi-scale Integrative Model of the Earth Systems (MIMES) a highly flexible simulation platform to deepen the understanding of Ecosystem services (ES).
Geological
Carbon
Earth Energy
Water by
Reservoir
Gasses
Ores

37. Spatially explicit functional modeling
Government
Investments
Economics Sectors
Final demand

38. Economic Sectors Government Fossil Energy Investments Ecosystem
Invested
Capital
Production
Efficiency
Price
Inventories
Economic Sectors
Fossil Energy
Sector
dependencies
Final
demands
Government
Investments
Tax
Research
Ecosystem
Services

39. Ecosystems (% Area)
Croplands
Wetlands
Urban
Tundra
Oceans
Forests

40. 1990 economic production in $ PPP per country
Research
Households
Transportation
Agriculture
Tourism
Fisheries

41. Ecosystem Service (index)
Climate Regulation
Cultural Heritage
Biological Regulation
Genetic Information
Natural Hazard Mitigation
Inorganic Resources

42. The Albemaro Pemleco Watershed
Surface water output
Ecosystem Services Provided

43. Ecological Research Program Core Science at Systems Level
EPA 2.0 – Ecological Research Program Core Science. Comprehensive, Human-integrated, Ecosystem Services Values Focused.

44. Location 12 Midwest States
Biosphere
Anthroposphere
Earth Surfaces
NLCD and CDL
water, forest, wetland,
amended cropland,
urban
Ecosystem
Services
ReVA
economic vitality
climate regulation
water quality
water quantity
human health
quality of life
biodiversity
recreation
Cultures
Social Capital
Biodiversity
Nutrient Cycling
SWAT
nitrogen
sediment
Atrazine
carbon
phosphorus
Human Capital
Economy
FAPRI
Hydrosphere
Lithosphere
Atmosphere
Midwest – Models identified in majority of major spheres, linkage of models. As we go through these the key “macro level” patterns to note are the population of which major spheres, linkages, coupling and proposed models for forecasting.
surface water
SWAT
Earth Energy
Geological
Carbon
river channel
Gasses
MARKAL
CMAQ
groundwater
Ores

45. Water quality/quantity Flood/storm protection
US Wetlands
Location
Biosphere
Anthroposphere
Ecosystem
Services
Carbon sequestration
Water quality/quantity
Flood/storm protection
Wildlife habitat
Fisheries support
Human well-being
Earth Surfaces
Cultures
Social Capital
Nutrient Cycling
CENTURY
C, N, P
Biodiversity
Waterfowl in MS
Vector-borne disease
Human Capital
Economy
Hydrosphere
Lithosphere
Atmosphere
Wetlands – Hydrosphere and Biosphere developed, coupling of selected submodels proposed.
Geological
Carbon
Earth Energy
Atm. forcing
Water Cycling
KINEROS2-OPUS2
SWAT
Probabilistic storm
surge
Gasses
Ores

46. Location Coastal Carolinas*
Ecosystem
Services
Anthroposphere
Biosphere
Cultures
Earth Surfaces
water cleansing
primary productivity
fish community composition
fish whole body conc. (Hg)
water quantity
Social Capital
Nutrient
Cycling
Biodiversity
Human Capital
BASS
SWAT
N,P, Hg, Pesticides
Economy
Habitat Suitability
Hydrosphere
Lithosphere
Atmosphere
Carolinas – Prototype borrowed from Albemarle Pamlico Ecosystem Study (HUC 12 prototype of linked, regional roll-up). Biosphere and Hydrosphere developed with no coupling.
Water by Reservoir
Geological
Carbon
Ores
Earth Energy
WASP
Gasses
CMAQ
H20, N, Hg
GFLOW

47. Reef, algae, wetland, forest, Coastal protection index
Location
Coral Reefs
Biosphere
Anthroposphere
Ecosystem
Services
Shoreline
protection
Fishing
Tourism
Biodiversity
Earth Surfaces
Reef, algae, wetland, forest,
urban, agriculture
Cultures
Social Capital
LDI index
Statistical models
Human Capital
Nutrient Cycling
Nitrogen
CaCO3
Biodiversity
Economy
Coastal protection index
Statistical models
WRI valuation methods
SORTIE
Atmosphere
Hydrosphere
Lithosphere
Corals – Degree of linkage and coupling, with Atmosphere and Hydrosphere developed.
Earth Energy
Climate change
SST, solar radiation
Open water
Benthic substrate
Ocean circulation
Storm frequency
Geological Carbon
Groundwater
Gases
Climate change
CO2
Ores
Surface water

48. food and fiber production habitat and biodiversity
Location
Tampa Bay
Biosphere
Anthroposphere
Ecosystem
Services
water supply
water quality
CO2 sequestration
flood protection
food and fiber production
habitat and biodiversity
recreation
nitrogen regulation
Earth Surfaces
water, forest, wetlands,
agriculture, urban
Cultures
Social Capital
Nutrient
Cycling
C, N, P, Hg
Biodiversity
Human Capital
Economy
Hydrosphere
Atmosphere
Lithosphere
Geological
Carbon
Ores
Tampa Bay – Coupling (Anthroposphere, Biosphere and Hydrosphere) and new models to be developed within Simile/MIMES or borrowed as feasible.
Water by
Reservoir
Earth Energy
Gasses O3

49. Location Willamette Basin
Biosphere
Anthroposphere
Ecosystem
Services
Water Supply
Flood Protection
CO2 Sequestration
Nitrogen Control
Food and Fiber
Habitat
Biodiversity
Sense of Place
Earth Surfaces
Forests, Wetlands
Agriculture, Urban
Cultures
Social Capital
Nutrient
Cycling
GT MEL
Century
SPARROW
N, C, Hg
Biodiversity
PATCH
Human Capital
Economy
Hydrosphere
Lithosphere
Atmosphere
Willamette – feed forward with coupled processes, primarily Biosphere and Hydrosphere.
Geological
Carbon
Earth Energy
Water
GA Tech Model
CLIGEN
KINEROS
MODFLOW
Gasses
Ores